World·since 26 May·1,201 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
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This week19 entries
State of playtoday 13:23
Midterm Result
Democrats won both chambers in the 3 November midterms, but the new Congress takes office only on 3 January 2027. Trump conceded the Iran war contributed to the losses and said he could work with Democrats on much, but not tariffs. Vice President Vance also blamed the war, and Republicans are urging personnel and policy changes.
Trade and Allies
Tariffs rest largely on presidential authority, so Democrats gain oversight and funding leverage but cannot repeal duties without two-thirds majorities to override a veto. A Section 301 investigation could add duties on China, India, Vietnam and others. EU goods face a 15% US tariff under the 2025 agreement and steel a 50% levy.
European governments welcomed the result but expect little quick change on tariffs, NATO, Ukraine or Iran.
Ukraine and China
Trilateral talks with the US, Russia and Ukraine open in Abu Dhabi on 10 November, though Putin rules out a ceasefire or ceding occupied land. NATO diplomats expect further US troop cuts in Europe. Trump is expected to meet Xi at the APEC summit in Shenzhen later in November, with the trade truce due to expire in January. Denmark votes on the Greenland deal on 19 November.
What comes next
- in 5 daysTrilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks begin in Abu Dhabi (10 and 11 November)
- in 14 daysDanish parliament votes on the trilateral Greenland security deal
- in 57 daysSouth Africa and Rwanda lose AGOA duty-free access
Open questions
- Will the US lift sanctions on Dmitriev's Russian Direct Investment Fund before the 10 November talks?
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Conceded the Iran war contributed to the Democratic midterm win while defending the attack, said he can work with Democrats on much but not tariffs, and said US military aid to Israel of about $4 billion a year ends with 2026 while arms sales continue.
5 Nov
JD Vance US Vice President
Blames the Iran war for the Republican midterm defeat as the 2028 race opens, while Trump says he does not know if Vance will run.
5 Nov
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Kyiv is due at trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November after Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and a propellant plant.
4 Nov
US special envoys US negotiators on Russia and Ukraine
Washington will sit at the table with both sides in Abu Dhabi, while the EU rejected a US idea attributed to its negotiators to resume Russian gas purchases via Ukraine.
4 Nov
EU leaders European Council members
Reject lifting Russia sanctions while the war continues and rejected the reported US idea of resuming Russian gas via Ukraine.
4 Nov
Vladimir Putin Russian President
The Kremlin confirmed Russia will attend trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, while Putin rules out a ceasefire and any handover of occupied land.
4 Nov
Jamieson Greer US Trade Representative
Warned on 27 October that a €3.4 billion EIB loan to Airbus endangers the US-EU civil aircraft financing agreement and the tariff truce.
28 Oct
Hakeem Jeffries House Democratic leader
Leads a Democratic caucus that won the House and gains oversight powers when the new Congress sits in January.
5 Nov
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC) (%)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Promises13
Donald Trumpunclear
Plywood, paper products, machinery and seaweed will come off the 50% tariff list on Canadian goods from 30 October.
24 Oct · due 30 Oct · pollar.news
White Housekept
Russia and Ukraine will halt military action in Oleshky from 29 October to allow aid and civilian evacuation.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · pollar.news
Trump administrationopen
The US will end duty-free AGOA access for South Africa and Rwanda from 1 January 2027.
3 Nov · due 1 Jan 2027 · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
US military aid to Israel of about $4 billion a year will end at the close of 2026 while arms sales continue.
3 Nov · due 31 Dec · apnews.com
Mark Carneyopen
Canadian and US teams will work on a trade deal in the coming weeks.
1 Nov · in the coming weeks · pollar.news
US officialsopen
The US will launch a tariff-relief programme for automakers investing in US production, with a rate of about 10%.
29 Oct
Eleven EU countriesopen
France, Germany, Italy and eight other EU countries will release 42.6 million barrels of oil, including 20.5 million of diesel, by end-January 2027.
29 Oct · due 31 Jan 2027 · lemonde.fr
Vladimir Putinopen
Russia will resume technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US after 10 November.
21 Oct · after 10 November 2026 · apnews.com
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,201 entries since 26 May
2–8 November11 entries
Vice President JD Vance said the war with Iran cost Republicans the midterms, while Trump said he does not know whether Vance will run in 2028. Democrats now hold the House and the Senate.
Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the 3 November midterms, and Trump conceded the war with Iran was one factor, while defending the attack. Tehran read the result as a rejection of that war.
The EU rejected an idea attributed to US negotiators to resume European purchases of Russian gas through a pipeline crossing Ukraine, POLITICO Europe reported on 4 November. The dispute follows a period in which Trump appeared more accommodating toward Moscow, including a deal involving Russian diesel.
The Kremlin confirmed to Reuters that Russia, Ukraine and the United States will hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, following Trump's statements that a three-way meeting was being prepared. It would put Washington directly at the table with both sides.
CNN projected on 4 November that Democrats won enough races to take the US House, with early Senate results favouring them in North Carolina and South Carolina. Congress gains oversight and blocking powers, though foreign policy stays largely with the president.
Trump said on 3 November the United States would stop providing roughly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel while continuing arms sales. The announcement appeared to describe a shift from grants to purchases rather than an end to military cooperation.
Greenland's parliament backed the trilateral agreement with Denmark and the United States on 3 November, with 16 votes in favour, none against and seven abstentions. The Danish parliament is scheduled to vote on the deal on 19 November.
US District Judge Tanya Chutkan on 3 November prohibited the Justice Department and Homeland Security from sending states lists of voters deemed potentially ineligible or asking officials to segregate or withhold ballots. The ruling limits use of immigration-enforcement data in state-run elections on the eve of the midterm.
Washington notified Congress that South Africa and Rwanda will lose African Growth and Opportunity Act duty-free access from 1 January 2027, citing trade barriers, corruption and rights concerns. The decision ties trade preferences to political conduct.
The Justice Department sought emergency Supreme Court intervention on 2 November to stop California counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots that federal officials link to people they allege may not be US citizens, filed the day before the midterm.
Five NATO diplomats told POLITICO that European allies expect Donald Trump could respond to a Republican defeat in the 3 November midterm by pulling more US troops from Europe and stepping up attacks on the alliance.
26 October – 1 November24 entries
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said a call with Donald Trump moved trade talks forward and that teams will work on a deal in the coming weeks. Summer-dispute tariffs stay in place, and the US midterms are two days away.
Trump said on 1 November that Brazil's defeated presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro may remain in the United States "as long as he wants", Reuters reported. Trump does not plan to meet him; the senator entered under humanitarian parole, which normally lasts one year.
The EU and Canada agreed a new political and trade partnership on 31 October, presented as a framework for closer cooperation and a possible future free-trade area. Brussels is seeking alternatives to a deteriorating relationship with Washington amid Trump's trade pressure.
European foreign ministers refused to appear in a G20 photograph with Russia's Sergei Lavrov, and the United States cancelled the photocall, AP reported on 31 October. Ministers were discussing Ukraine and US tariffs, and the episode exposed a gap between Washington and Europe over engaging Moscow.
Politico reported on 30 October that the administration has delayed several trade measures and is preparing an investigation into manufacturing overcapacity in 16 trading partners. The probe could pave the way for new duties on major economies including the EU after the 3 November midterms.
A first humanitarian convoy set off overnight for Russian-occupied Oleshky near Kherson, where residents may leave until 14:00 on 30 October. Two people, one a sapper, were killed clearing access roads, in the first aid delivery under the truce.
US officials asked Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and other NATO countries to tone down rhetoric on the Russian threat, Reuters reported on 30 October, as Washington pushes to end the Ukraine war and Pentagon planners weigh a substantial cut in US troops in Europe.
Kyiv has informally halted long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries after weeks of pressure from Washington, the Wall Street Journal reported. The pause is expected to last at least until the 3 November US midterm elections.
France, Germany, Italy and eight other EU countries pledged on 29 October to release 42.6 million barrels by end-January 2027, including 20.5 million of diesel, Le Monde reported. The move followed a G7 agreement on a 100 million barrel release that Trump pressed Europe to join.
US officials told Audi the administration plans a tariff-relief programme for automakers making substantial US investments, Reuters reported on 29 October. Audi sought 7.5% instead of the current 15%; about 10% is expected, tying market access to US production.
The Pentagon removed Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, director of strategy, plans and policy on the Joint Staff, giving no reason and naming no successor. The removal comes as Trump weighs renewed strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterm elections.
Flávio Bolsonaro, who lost Brazil's runoff to Lula, landed in Miami on a chartered flight on 28 October and declared himself the country's leader. He has not conceded, and the move follows reports of State Department help for the Bolsonaro family.
The UN General Assembly voted on 28 October to condemn the US economic embargo on Cuba, AP reported. More countries than usual opposed the resolution or abstained after the Trump administration lobbied members ahead of the vote.
Ottawa and Brussels removed the proposed "associate member" status from a draft summit statement, Reuters reported on 28 October, after EU governments said it lacked legal definition. Trump had called the idea "laughable" and threatened to halt trade with Europe.
Russia's foreign minister will travel to the United States on 30 and 31 October for G20 foreign ministers' talks in Atlanta, which are meant to prepare the leaders' summit near Miami in December.
Brent crude for December delivery rose 1.80% to $115.93 a barrel on ICE on 28 October after a Wall Street Journal report that Washington may resume military action against Iran following the 3 November midterm elections.
Trump said on 28 October that preparations are under way for a meeting involving Putin and Zelenskyy, Bloomberg reported. No date or venue was given, while Moscow still rejects a ceasefire and territorial concessions.
Trump announced the scrapping of Biden-era methane rules at a Lubbock, Texas rally for Ken Paxton, who was the first to sue over the 2024 rule. Critics warn the rollback weakens oversight of methane leaks that drive climate warming.
The Trump administration is considering lifting US sanctions on the Russian Direct Investment Fund, the state fund run by Kirill Dmitriev, as Ukraine peace talks widen into business deals with Moscow, according to Pollar's reporting.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on 27 October that a €3.4 billion European Investment Bank loan to Airbus endangers the US-EU agreement on civil aircraft financing, saying Washington had repeatedly requested details of the June loan without receiving them.
A truce took effect early on 27 October in occupied Oleshky, Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed, ahead of the 29 October date the White House announced. About 2,000 residents of the flooded town lack food and drinking water.
Trump offered a $1 million reward for tips on election fraud, covering past elections and the 3 November midterms, payable only after arrests and convictions. He also questioned Brazil's runoff, which confirmed Lula as president.
Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.78% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, who has not conceded. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell nearly 20% overnight. The result follows Reuters reporting on State Department efforts to help the Bolsonaro family.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration backs Hungarian leader Viktor Orban for UN secretary-general. The plan would make him a joint candidate of the United States, Russia and China; the final decision is still pending.
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