Ukraine pauses strikes on Russian oil refineries under Trump pressure, WSJ reports

An informal pause on refinery strikes

Ukraine has informally halted its long-range air and drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, according to the Wall Street Journal, which cited people familiar with the operations. Kyiv has not announced the pause officially. Units carrying out long-range drone strikes were told in mid-October that the campaign was effectively on hold, except for missions already under way. The pause has been in place since early in the week of 19 October and is expected to last at least until the US midterm elections on 3 November, and possibly longer.

Pressure from Washington

Donald Trump had pressed Volodymyr Zelensky for weeks to stop strikes on refineries, and in recent weeks he blamed Kyiv for high fuel prices in the United States. Energy experts cited by the WSJ mostly attribute the global rise in prices to the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin on diesel supplies and the suspension of some sanctions, steps meant to ease pressure on American farmers and other consumers. Republican candidates in the midterms reportedly feared that high fuel costs could cost them votes. Trump also said at one point that Ukraine may need a new leader, and Elon Musk made a similar argument in a post on X. The WSJ further reported that SpaceX restricted Ukraine's access to Starlink during the crisis, and Musk said Ukraine's army had broken the terms of use, a claim Zelensky denied.

Kyiv's response

Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and special envoy, joined talks in Oslo on 20 October by video link, where Steve Witkoff met Zelensky with European delegations present. According to the WSJ, Kushner told Zelensky that he and Witkoff were spending considerable time, energy and jet fuel on talks with Moscow, and that a 30-day pause in strikes on Russian refineries could be a way for Ukraine to show gratitude. A second WSJ source said Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara advised Zelensky that the army considered it preferable to avoid refinery strikes for a time because of the sensitive diplomatic situation. Zelensky agreed but stressed that the military remains free to resume such strikes. Speaking to journalists in Kyiv on 27 October, Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had tried to be somewhat more careful in recent days but had no order to stop hitting refineries, and that drone units were now striking other targets in Russia.

Strikes on energy and civilian targets

Russia and Ukraine have for months targeted each other's energy facilities. Earlier in October, Trump said the two sides had agreed not to strike each other's energy targets for the time being, but Ukraine resumed its attacks a few days later, which Zelensky attributed to Russia not keeping the agreement. Late on 29 October, one person was killed in Russian missile attacks on Kyiv that damaged buildings and started fires, according to Mayor Vitali Klitschko. On 29 October the International Atomic Energy Agency said an employee at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant had been killed in a Russian drone attack, reportedly a welder at the plant's central repair workshop. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi repeated his call for military restraint around the facility.

What comes next

The informal pause is part of new US-backed efforts to restart negotiations that could end the most deadly armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War, according to the WSJ. The Wall Street Journal's sources expect the pause to hold until the midterms, with a possible extension later in November. Zelensky has said Kyiv wants stronger protection for its energy infrastructure, which Russia keeps hitting with missiles and drones ahead of winter. Ukraine has not confirmed any formal arrangement, and the Kremlin's response to the reported pause has not been reported in the sources.