Vance blames Iran war for GOP midterm defeat as 2028 race opens around Trump

Vance breaks with Trump over the war

Vice President JD Vance published a long statement on X on Wednesday, 4 November, a day after Democrats won control of the House and the Senate in the midterm elections. In it he named the war with Iran as the reason Republicans lost and wrote that Trump had said as much himself the night before. Vance had defended the conflict in public since the United States and Israel attacked Tehran in February 2026, although reports say he voiced doubts in private meetings with administration officials. The BBC described the statement as unusual, noting it was hard to recall a sitting vice president breaking so sharply with a president on a key foreign policy issue. Trump, speaking to reporters, defended the war while agreeing that it had largely decided the vote, and said he would make the same decision again.

Vance's plan for the party

Vance wrote that the party's economic message had not been clear enough, at a time when Trump spoke of a golden age and petrol and diesel prices were rising sharply. He said he had asked a sociologist he did not name what would bring disappointed voters back, and the answer reportedly centred on four points: ending the war, focusing on the cost of living and inflation, an "America First" agenda, and changing the relationship with Israel. Vance also said he was open to a shift in enforcement, for example a greater focus on companies that employ undocumented workers. He backed a call by Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy for a diplomatic end to the war, as reports said Trump was weighing new strikes. Vance had led the team that drafted a memorandum of understanding with Tehran on a ceasefire in 2025, a provisional deal that later collapsed.

Trump on 2028 and the Republican field

Trump told reporters he does not know whether Vance will run in 2028, adding that the two had never discussed the question and that he talks with Vance about many things. He said there could be many candidates, or none, and that Vance might not run at all. According to a recent New York Times poll cited by Notícias ao Minuto, Vance led among Republicans, ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Ziare reports that Rubio has also been named as a possible successor, and that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 48, leaves office in January 2027. Senator Ted Cruz, 55, has left the door open to a run after facing Trump for the nomination in 2016.

Democrats' contenders and new faces

La Razón lists former vice president Kamala Harris, Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia and Governor Gavin Newsom of California among possible Democratic candidates. Ossoff was re-elected by almost 20 points in Georgia on election day. Several newly elected Democrats are also drawing attention. James Talarico, a 37-year-old former seminarian, won a Senate seat in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed, a Detroit doctor, won in Michigan, and pediatrician Annie Andrews won in South Carolina. Adam Hamilton, a 62-year-old Methodist pastor and former Republican, won the first Democratic seat in Kansas since 1932. New York Times demographic data show the shift toward Democrats was especially pronounced among young men and Hispanic voters compared with the 2024 presidential election.