Democrats win Congress as Trump concedes Iran war hurt Republicans in midterms

Democrats take both chambers

Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections held on 3 November, handing Donald Trump and the Republicans a heavy defeat. Not all districts had finished counting when the reports were published, but the Democratic majority in both chambers was already clear. Democrats also performed strongly in governor races and state legislative contests. As results came in, Trump acknowledged that the war with Iran was one of the factors behind his party's weak showing. In a series of interviews he pointed to weak Republican candidates and the war, and said Republicans would have won had his own name been on the ballot. He told The New York Times he would accept the result.

Tehran and the Iran war

Iranian officials and state-linked media quickly used the defeat for political messaging. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf posted on X that Americans had said no to the war, whether guided by conscience or by worries about living costs, and that Iran backed that message. The Tasnim agency, which is linked to the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, ran a headline calling the war one of the main reasons for the Republicans' defeat. Supreme leader Modżtaba Chamenei warned on Wednesday, 4 November, that the change in the balance of power in Washington would not alter Tehran's attitude toward the United States. Earlier reports revealed that the United States had carried out secret strikes on Iranian targets before the midterms, and it is not known whether Trump will resume large-scale attacks on Iran.

Reactions in Poland

Former Polish president Bronisław Komorowski told RMF24 that the result was good news for Polish interests. He said Trump's approach to Europe, Ukraine and Russia, particularly toward Vladimir Putin, had caused deep uncertainty in Poland and across the eastern flank. He doubted the vote would bring a permanent US military base to Poland, and said the administration could use the outcome as a reason to rule out any base beyond the one already at Redzikowo. He also argued that a Democratic-led Congress could help find a compromise in the Middle East, since everyone would benefit from lower oil prices once the conflict ends. Komorowski put his view of the result this way:

“From the point of view of Polish interests, this is good news.”

Competing explanations

Analysts offered differing accounts of the causes of the defeat. Rafał Michalski, an American studies specialist, told RMF24 that Republicans lost heavily among Latino voters, where some districts showed a swing of 40 percentage points against them compared with 2024. A right-leaning analysis argued that midterms usually act as a referendum on the sitting president, and that Trump made this vote about himself by asking supporters at the Republican convention a few months earlier to treat it as if he were the candidate. Turkish commentary focused on the economy. Retired Turkish intelligence colonel Coskun Basbug pointed to unfulfilled promises to end wars and to higher oil prices linked to the war with Iran, while TGRT commentator Mehmet Beyhan argued the result cannot be separated from US-Israeli relations. A Polish commentary cited fuel prices and the war with Iran as the main drivers of voter anger.

Warnings about what comes next

Sky News analyst Dominic Waghorn wrote that Trump faces two years with a Democratic majority in both chambers, with congressional investigations, budget limits and political deadlock. Foreign policy, however, gives the president far wider powers, and Waghorn argued that Trump, who cannot seek a third term, may act more freely abroad. Sky News listed possible scenarios including meetings with Vladimir Putin and an escalation of the war with Iran. The reports give no timetable for any decision on renewed strikes against Iran.