Evening Brief, Tuesday 27 October

Israelis voted at a pace unseen in five decades, with the Central Elections Committee putting turnout at 44.9% at 14:00 and 55.7% at 16:00. Din Livneh, the committee's acting director-general, said the later figure was the highest since records began in 1973, a sharp rise from 47.5% at the same hour in the previous election.

• 14:00 current election44.9
• 16:00 current election55.7
• 16:00 previous election47.5

The rush has turned procedure into politics. Long queues led the committee to tell polling chairs that voters with expired identity documents may still cast ballots if the photo allows recognition. The committee also said closing time could be pushed past 22:00 where queues persist. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud asked for voting to be extended, while Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party opposed the request and called it a pretext for later challenges to the vote's legitimacy.

The election is also a judgment on Benjamin Netanyahu's rule since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed. More than 7.3 million Israelis were called to choose among 37 party lists, with only parties above 3.25% entering the 120-seat Knesset. Polls showed Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's change bloc near parity, with neither expected to reach 61 seats. One observer put the stakes bluntly.

“We have a corrupt government that will do anything to stay in power.”

Justice Flávio Dino ordered a new inquiry into possible foreign funds for Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, days after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff with 51.79% of the vote. The inquiry names the US conservative Rockbridge Network and asks whether two Brazilian businessmen discussed rare earths and other critical minerals with it. It also orders checks on alleged outside interference, including targeted asymmetries and algorithmic manipulation by internet companies.

Flávio Bolsonaro has already retreated from one challenge to the result. He first said he would seek to annul the vote after the Supreme Court extended voting by two hours, then said he would instead ask courts to invalidate Lula's candidacy over alleged abuse of economic and political power. The Liberal Party, led by Valdemar Costa Neto, recognised the proclaimed result on Monday while asking for its objections to be clarified in a democratic debate.

The legal pressure on Flávio Bolsonaro now runs on another track too. He said federal police approached him after he visited his father, Jair Bolsonaro, and asked him to hand over his passports under an order tied to a money-laundering inquiry involving lawyer Willer Tomaz and capital flows linked to the betting sector. The order also bars contact with Willer Tomaz, cancels Flávio Bolsonaro's Brazilian passports, including his diplomatic one, and requires surrender of any other passports, including an Italian one, within 24 hours. Flávio Bolsonaro denied saying he would leave Brazil if he lost and said he would organise the opposition to Lula's government.

Russia and Ukraine began a local ceasefire around Oleshky in the early hours of 27 October, creating a narrow opening for a humanitarian mission to the occupied town on the left bank of the Dnipro. Ukraine said its halt began at 3:00 Kyiv time, and Russia's Defence Ministry said it stopped firing in the Kherson sector from 4:00 Moscow time. Ukrainian ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said that by 17:30 both sides were observing the terms, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said no violations had been reported.

Melania Trump is credited with mediating the arrangement and said the truce was brought forward by two days. The White House had earlier put the start on 29 October. Her announcement also widened the zone beyond Oleshky within Kherson region, so convoys can pass safely later this week before a new round of US-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks expected next month.

Oleshky has been cut off for months. The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said no food supplies had reached the town since 26 May. Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Kherson regional military administration, said about 2,000 people were being held without food, electricity or water, almost 50 of them children. The UN mission put the remaining population at about 1,700, including 35 children. Russia said everyone who wished to leave would be allowed to do so, and Ukraine said the designated area was set aside for a humanitarian operation.

Anthropic named Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as lead underwriters for its US listing, giving Wall Street's two old Silicon Valley rivals pride of place on what may become a record artificial-intelligence flotation. Goldman appears farthest left on the prospectus, the spot that marks it as lead-left bank, while Morgan Stanley will act as stabilization agent on the first trading day.

The proposed size is eye-watering even by AI standards. Axios reports the offering may seek to raise $100 billion, and reports citing the Wall Street Journal put Anthropic's valuation between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion. The filing creates five classes of common stock, including class F shares for the seven co-founders, among them Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei, that carry 50.1% of shareholder votes but no dividend or profit rights. An independent Long-Term Benefit Trust will appoint most of the board.

• Earlier first half1.2
• First half 202616.3

The prospectus also asks investors to swallow unusual risks. It flags the possibility that AI systems could resist shutdown, conceal information or act in unintended, misaligned or autonomous ways. First-half revenue rose from $1.2 billion to $16.3 billion, while losses reached $80.7 billion, mainly because the value of convertible bonds rose. The filing lifted Asian tech shares, but Anthony Saglimbene of Ameriprise said investors still want proof that demand goes beyond circular infrastructure deals.

“Investors need confidence that aggressive capex spending reflects durable business needs and that profitability will hold up as new infrastructure comes into service.”

The European Commission proposed a broad Frontex overhaul that would make the border agency the EU's central deportation body. A new coordination centre would let member states hand over the organisation and financing of removal flights, and Frontex could manage more of the return process from start to finish. The plan follows the Ceuta crisis in late July, when an estimated 80,000 people reached the Spanish enclave from Morocco in a very short time.

The proposal also reaches beyond the Union's borders. Frontex could carry out deportations between non-EU countries if the country where the person is located has an agreement with Brussels. That provision could support planned return hubs outside the EU, where people who cannot yet be sent to their home countries would wait until negotiations make removal possible. It also fits the EU's wider practice of paying countries such as Libya and Egypt to stop migrants before they reach Europe.

• Previous reserve plan10,000
• Proposed standing reserve30,000
• Permanent staff now3,000
• Permanent staff proposed6,000

The staffing plan is the hard edge of the reform. The standing reserve would grow to 30,000 in the coming years, compared with a previous plan for 10,000 next year. Permanent Frontex staff would double from 3,000 to 6,000, and a new European border and return force would add 17,000 personnel supplied by member states. The agency would also monitor public social-media posts and seek trusted-flagger status under the Digital Services Act, giving platforms a duty to process its reports of illegal content first.

Health authorities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported 10,060 Ebola cases on 27 October, with 4,887 deaths since the outbreak became known in mid-May. Africa CDC calls it the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record. Reuters, citing Congolese public-health data, ranks it the second-largest and second-deadliest Ebola epidemic on record, behind the West African epidemic of 2014 to 2016.

The strain makes containment harder. The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo variant, for which no vaccine or specific therapy has been approved. Ervebo, licensed for Zaire ebolavirus outbreaks, is being tested in two trial series for possible protection against Bundibugyo. Two antiviral treatments have been in clinical trials since July. Early symptoms can resemble malaria, which can delay isolation and treatment in areas where health systems are already stretched.

The outbreak has now crossed borders. Kenya has reported nine infections, including two deaths, after a man who had travelled from Congo through Uganda died in Nairobi. Nigeria has reported one case, in the wife of a Swiss diplomat who had not travelled to Congo; the Swiss government believes she was probably infected in Uganda, and she and her husband were flown to Switzerland on Monday. Uganda recorded 20 cases in May and June, most imported from Congo, and the World Health Organization declared that outbreak over in August. Ugandan officials now say the country has no Ebola cases, but returning citizens from Congo will face quarantine.