NATO allies fear Trump will step up attacks on the alliance if Republicans lose midterms

Allies brace for a worst-case scenario

NATO countries are preparing for the worst case ahead of the US midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November, according to five NATO diplomats who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity. Their concern is that a Republican defeat would leave Donald Trump more constrained by Congress on domestic policy, which could push him to pursue his legacy in foreign affairs, where he has wider room to act as commander-in-chief. Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives and could also take control of the Senate. Trump's personal approval rating has fallen to the lowest level recorded for him. One diplomat said the president could be very angry and that, if so, he would be very harsh toward the alliance.

Troop cuts and the December review

US law currently requires a minimum of 76,000 military personnel on the European continent. A review of the American force posture in Europe is expected by December, and three of the diplomats fear Trump could use that deadline to widen the withdrawal in order to rally his MAGA base. Jennifer Kavanagh, a political scientist who specialises in US defence strategy, warned that Europe would struggle most to replace electronic warfare capabilities, air defence systems, intelligence and reconnaissance support, aerial refuelling and certain kinds of logistics if a larger pullout went ahead. The diplomats' worries go beyond troop numbers, as Washington could also reduce its contribution to NATO's common budget or limit the PURL programme, which finances weapons purchases for Ukraine.

Ukraine and the wider rift

The allies also fear that Trump could make keeping US troops on the continent conditional on Europe accepting a peace agreement for Ukraine that Washington supports. Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official, was cited by POLITICO warning of a risk that these issues would be viewed together. The concerns come after the United States cut Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and after a fresh rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a few weeks before the midterms. Russia is meanwhile stepping up its sabotage campaign and its so-called hybrid war across Europe, which makes further attacks on NATO more damaging, according to the report.

The White House response

White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales answered the concerns by pointing to Trump's record on the alliance. She cited agreements under which allies would raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, the strengthening of the US military presence in Greenland, and efforts to end Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine. She also said Trump 'remains firm' that the allies should have stood with the United States over the war in Iran.

“President Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else.”

Wales added that the president would never accept the managed decline of the West.

What comes next

The midterm vote takes place on Tuesday, 3 November, and the expected review of US forces in Europe is due by December. The diplomats said the scale of any pullback would depend on whether Congress restrains Trump's domestic agenda after the vote.