Oil rises as US may resume Iran strikes after midterms, Brent at $115.93

Oil rises on reports of renewed strikes

Oil prices climbed on Wednesday, 28 October, after reports that the United States may resume military action against Iran once the midterm elections scheduled for 3 November are over. West Texas Intermediate for December delivery stood at $101.63 a barrel on the NYMEX in New York, up 1.73%. Brent for December delivery on ICE was priced at $115.93, up 1.80%. Since the start of the year, WTI has gained 77.1% and Brent 90.5%. The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous sources, reported that Washington has told several Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense operation. According to the same report, President Donald Trump has not yet decided to continue action against Iran but is leaning toward a large US attack after the vote.

Gulf states keep talking to Tehran

Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia issued a statement after a four-way meeting with Iran in Tehran on Monday, 26 October, committing to continue talks on wider regional cooperation, including peace and security, Iran Wire reported on Tuesday. The meeting was the first high-level contact between Iran and Saudi officials since the US and Israeli war with Iran began. Saudi Arabia was represented by Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman, Turkey by intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin and Pakistan by army commander Asim Munir. Iran's delegation included President Masoud Pezeshkian and Mohsen Rezai, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Riyadh said the visit aimed to open negotiating channels to prevent a return to military escalation. A senior Pakistani security official said the main goal was to set up a regional mechanism to prevent attacks between countries in the region. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed the Mecca defence pact in August, under which an attack on one member counts as an attack on all.

Prices swing between talks and strike reports

Oil fell on Tuesday, 27 October, as hopes grew that diplomacy could ease tensions and reduce the risk of an escalation that would disrupt the restoration of supply. Brent for December delivery closed on ICE down 1.67% at $113.88, its biggest one-day decline since 5 October. The January contract, the most actively traded, also lost 1.2% in the Tuesday session. Oman's authorities announced that talks with Iran had produced an outline of an interim agreement to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which would require compromises from both the United States and Iran. The four countries also backed earlier mediation by Qatar and Pakistan. Prices rebounded on 28 October when the strike reports emerged.

2026-10-27113.88

2026-10-28115.93

2026-10-27

113.88 USD per barrel

2026-10-28

115.93 USD per barrel

Data from the article text

Supply data and the risk premium

Kpler estimates that October deliveries of oil from the Gulf region rose to 17.3 million barrels a day, above the average before the war began, yet Brent came close to $117, according to Parkiet. Parkiet described a spread between spot and nearest futures prices of around $30 a barrel two to three weeks earlier, which it linked to refiners hedging against further disruption and to high transport and insurance costs for tankers. Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial wrote in a report that prospects of new talks on Iran and on Russia's war in Ukraine put short-term pressure on prices, while limited global supply and a growing US military presence in the Persian Gulf remain facts. Signals of a possible end to Russia's war with Ukraine were also cited as a factor pushing prices down. Parkiet put the geopolitical premium at more than $30 a barrel.

What comes next

Parkiet argued that a return of exports to earlier levels does not yet mean full normalisation, since transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains exposed to attacks and restocking will take time. The paper said an actual return to the negotiating table could trigger a sharp correction if part of the geopolitical premium disappeared, while renewed escalation could justify keeping prices high. The US midterm elections are scheduled for 3 November. Investors were also following Israel's parliamentary elections, where exit polls pointed to Likud winning the most votes but neither it nor the opposition appeared to secure a parliamentary majority.