Evening Brief, Tuesday 7 July

Iran pushed the Gulf back to the centre of the war's diplomacy after US officials said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. A Qatari LNG tanker, the Al Rekayyat, caught fire after a projectile hit near its engine room, while a second vessel, reported as a Saudi-flagged crude tanker, suffered damage. Tehran did not officially claim the strikes, while Iranian state television said the tanker had ignored warnings. Qatar blamed Iran directly and called the attack a threat to navigation and energy security.

Russia meanwhile launched 68 missiles and 351 drones at Ukraine, according to Kyiv, and Ukraine said it intercepted most drones but none of the 23 ballistic missiles. The attack killed at least 30 people across Kyiv, Sumy and Zaporizhzhia, and it landed just before NATO leaders gathered in Ankara with Ukrainian air defence high on the agenda.

The two crises now squeeze the same Western reflex: manage escalation without admitting deterrence has frayed. Donald Trump threatened to reach a deal with Iran or "finish the job", while Ukraine asked allies to release interceptors already sitting in depots. The immediate danger is not only another ship hit or another apartment block destroyed, but a steady proof that hard power gaps invite fresh tests.

NATO opened its Ankara summit with the sound of chequebooks rustling. Donald Trump criticised allies for failing to back the United States in the Iran war and said he wanted loyalty rather than money, so Mark Rutte staged a defence-industry showcase packed with contracts worth tens of billions of dollars. European members and Canada said they lifted defence spending by $90 billion in 2025 to more than $570 billion, a roughly 20% increase.

Ukraine used the same summit to press for air-defence systems, missiles and production licences. Volodymyr Zelensky arrived with nearly 20 bilateral meetings planned, while NATO leaders prepared to reaffirm long-term aid, including 70 billion euros by the end of 2026 and at least the same amount in 2027. Canada added a concrete symbol of the shift by choosing Germany's TKMS as preferred bidder for 12 submarines in a project worth more than 60 billion Canadian dollars.

Emmanuel Macron tried a different kind of diplomacy in Damascus, where two improvised bombs wounded 18 people near the Four Seasons hotel after he had left for the presidential palace. He continued the first visit by a Western head of state since Ahmed al-Charaa's Islamist-led coalition took power after Bashar al-Assad's fall, and France promised to restore ambassador-level ties as soon as possible.

Ankara and Damascus show the same diplomatic bargain in different clothes: allies and former pariahs can get a hearing, but only if they bring either security value or strategic real estate.

Marine Le Pen regained a legal path to France's 2027 presidential election after the Paris Court of Appeal upheld her conviction for embezzling European Parliament funds but reduced her ban from public office. The court sentenced her to three years in prison, two suspended, with the remaining year under electronic surveillance, and fined her 100,000 euros. The effective ineligibility period has already elapsed, but the bracelet may still cramp a campaign she has long said she would not run under such conditions.(4d06f4aee-9a05-523a39909bec)

Nigel Farage chose a more theatrical route through trouble. He resigned as MP for Clacton-on-Sea and said he would stand again in the by-election, as parliamentary standards inquiries examine an alleged 5 million pound gift and undeclared campaign support. The inquiry pauses unless he returns to Westminster, which turns the local vote into both a legal intermission and a personal plebiscite.

In the United States, Democrats moved against Graham Platner after a former partner accused him of sexual assault, with party leaders urging him to quit Maine's Senate race before the July 13 replacement deadline. Platner denied the allegation, but the party now risks losing time in a race it had treated as a prime chance to unseat Susan Collins.

The day's electoral lesson is stark: voters may forgive grievance, but parties still fear being trapped behind candidates who turn every ballot into a character hearing.

China faced a chain of disasters that moved from wind to water to earth. Severe thunderstorms and two tornadoes killed at least 11 people and injured more than 330 in eastern Hubei, where winds reached 149 km/h and thousands of buildings were damaged. In Guangxi, a reservoir dam breach after torrential rain forced mass evacuations, while a landslide in Gansu buried 33 people and left 16 trapped after rescuers pulled out survivors.

Europe's heat wrote its own emergency script. Spain entered its second heatwave of the summer, with Serradilla in Cáceres hitting 43.5°C and red alerts issued for Aragón, Catalonia and the Valencian Community. France placed 61 departments under orange heatwave alert, with forecasts of 36°C to 40°C and local peaks of 41°C, while drought and heat fed major fires in the south.

The Pyrénées-Orientales fire near Trévillach burned through 4,900 hectares and forced more than 12,000 people from around 20 communes, even closing a Tour de France stage to spectators so firefighters could move freely. EU partners sent aircraft and more than 100 firefighters, while another French blaze, a Girona fire in Spain, hundreds of Portuguese fires and a Greek forest fire showed how quickly the heat belt can become a fire belt.

This is the uncomfortable climate balance sheet: warnings now arrive earlier, but rescue crews, hospitals and power grids still pay in real time.