Spain braces for extreme heatwave as temperatures forecast to hit 44°C this weekend
A potent anticyclone will trap heat over Spain starting Thursday, pushing temperatures to 44°C in central and southern areas and triggering health warnings through early next week.
A potent anticyclone will transform the Iberian Peninsula into a furnace starting Thursday, according to the Spanish meteorological agency AEMET and forecaster Meteored. The phenomenon, widely described as a "heat dome" or "cúpula de calor", is expected to push temperatures to 44°C in central, western and southern areas over the weekend and into early next week.
Forecast: extreme heat starting Thursday
The heat will build from Wednesday, when maximums of 41°C are already forecast in Andalusia and Extremadura, triggering orange-level warnings. Thursday sees a generalized rise, with 41°C in Badajoz, Córdoba and Seville, and 35°C in Madrid. On Friday, 40°C will be widespread across the interior, and the Ebro, Tajo, Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys could see 42°C. Sunday is expected to be the hottest day of the current episode, with the same interior valleys likely to record 42°C, while early next week could bring local peaks of 42-44°C. Even the usually cooler north may see values above 35°C.
- Heat dome begins to settle; 41°C in Badajoz, Córdoba and Seville.
- Temperatures climb: 40°C widely, up to 42°C in interior valleys.
- Hottest day: up to 42°C in the Ebro, Tajo, Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys.
- Peak heat: 42-44°C possible in central, western and southern Spain.
What is causing the 'heat dome'
Unlike a typical Saharan air intrusion, this event is being generated by a stationary ridge of high pressure. The anticyclone acts as a lid, trapping and compressing air near the surface. Subsidence, descending air, further heats and dries the atmosphere. Meteored climatologist Samuel Biener explained that "under certain circumstances, Spain can generate its own heatwaves." The forecast models show temperature anomalies of 8-10°C above normal for early July, with isotherms at 1,500 meters reaching 28°C, a setup that reliably yields surface temperatures above 40°C.
Nighttime offers little relief
The oppressive heat will not ease after sunset. AEMET warns of tropical nights, with minimums above 20°C, across Andalusia, Extremadura and the Mediterranean coast. In urban areas, "torrid nights" where thermometers remain above 25°C are likely, especially in city centres and southern regions. This combination of high daytime and nighttime temperatures raises health concerns, particularly for vulnerable populations.
Record-breaking context
The approaching heatwave caps a period of exceptional warmth. June 2026 was the second-hottest June on record in Spain, with an average temperature 3.2°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Only June 2025 was warmer. The first half of 2026 has been the hottest January–June period since national records began in 1961, at 1.6°C above normal. All thirteen of the warmest Junes in the historical series now belong to the 21st century. Europe as a whole is still grappling with what Meteored describes as the most severe heatwave on record, which has already caused hundreds of deaths.
Warnings and next steps
As of Wednesday, six autonomous communities are under active heat alerts, with orange warnings (significant risk) for Andalusia and Extremadura and yellow warnings for Castilla-La Mancha, Castilla y León, Catalonia, the Community of Madrid, and the Canary Islands. AEMET has indicated that the alerts will likely be extended and upgraded as the episode intensifies, especially from Friday onward. While the Cantabrian coast may escape the worst, the sheer extent of the heat may still trigger an official nationwide heatwave declaration, depending on how events unfold.
