Israel votes 27 October as polls put Netanyahu's bloc short of a majority

A vote on the Netanyahu era

Israelis vote on Tuesday, 27 October, to fill all 120 seats in the Knesset. It is the first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October 2023 and the Gaza war that followed. Voters choose a party rather than a prime minister, and around three million people are expected to take part. No party has ever won the 61 seats needed for an outright majority, so the winner will almost certainly depend on a coalition. A party must win at least 3.25 per cent of the national vote to enter parliament.

What the polls show

A poll of 4,000 Israelis conducted by Agam Labs with Hebrew University, published on 22 October, suggests that Netanyahu's far-right coalition is unlikely to survive the vote. In that survey the Haredi bloc, including Likud and Shas, wins 52 to 54 seats, short of a majority, and Likud falls to 19 seats from 32 at present.

Current Knesset32

Agam Labs projection19

Current Knesset

32 seats

Agam Labs projection

19 seats

Data from the article text

The same projections give Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party 20 seats, the most of any single party. A separate poll puts Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc at 50 seats and the bloc around Eisenkot at 52.

Netanyahu bloc50

Eisenkot-led bloc52

Netanyahu bloc

50 seats

Eisenkot-led bloc

52 seats

Data from the article text

Other polling puts the opposition bloc at 52 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's alliance, leaving Palestinian-led parties in a position to decide who governs.

Netanyahu's legal and political baggage

Netanyahu was first chosen as prime minister in 1996 and has 19 accumulated years in office. The office has no term limits, provided a prime minister keeps the confidence of a Knesset majority. He was indicted in 2019 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three cases, accused of receiving expensive gifts in exchange for political favours. He calls the case a witch hunt, and proceedings stalled during the war in Gaza. He is also under an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for suspected crimes against humanity and war crimes. Reports that he was warned about the Hamas threat in 2023 add to the pressure on him ahead of the vote.

Arab parties as a campaign target

Netanyahu is framing cooperation with Arab parties as an existential threat. An AI-generated ad posted on his X account shows Eisenkot running past a young man to embrace Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List. Palestinian citizens of Israel, roughly 2 million or about 20 per cent of the population, face a surge in crime and see voting as their only way to demand change. Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, reads the campaign as a familiar populist tactic.

“Populist leaders typically define an external and an internal enemy, and for Netanyahu, Arabs serve as the ultimate enemy.”

Talshir also notes that Netanyahu first opened the door to cooperation with Abbas in 2021, when he struggled to form a government. Those talks failed, and Abbas later joined the Bennett and Lapid coalition, which collapsed after a year and a half but broke the long-standing taboo on Jewish-Arab coalitions. Rula Daood, who co-heads the Arab-Jewish group Standing Together, argues that the delegitimisation of Arab voters is an old political tool.

“The delegitimization of the Arab public has always existed and been used as a political maneuver to mobilize voters.”

Opposition options and coalition math

In late September four opposition parties, Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu and the Together alliance, signed a non-aggression pact aimed at unseating Netanyahu. The bloc has not named a prime ministerial candidate, although former army chief Eisenkot is seen as the most likely choice. Naftali Bennett, who heads Together with Yair Lapid, is another potential candidate. Most opposition parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the Arab parties until the final results are known, which could limit their route to a majority. Netanyahu's traditional partners include Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism, while Shas and United Torah Judaism could also prove decisive.

What happens after the count

Defeating Netanyahu at the ballot box does not automatically remove him from power, because the result depends on who can assemble a majority in the Knesset. If the opposition clears the hurdle over Arab parties, one analysis expects a new government could be led by Eisenkot from the centre right. Israel still has no written constitution, and most of its Basic Laws can be amended by a simple majority in parliament. Coalition talks will likely decide who governs once the votes are counted.