NATO summit in Ankara to test alliance unity as Trump demands 5% spending and support on Iran

A summit under strain

The NATO summit that opens in Ankara on Tuesday is shaping up as one of the most unpredictable in years. US President Donald Trump arrives with a list of grievances: European allies that did not back Washington during the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz operation, and defense budgets he considers inadequate. Trump said before departing that without the invitation from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, "I wouldn't have even participated."

The 5% spending target

At last year's Hague summit, allies agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, split into 3.5% for pure military expenditure and 1.5% for security and dual-use infrastructure. Spain secured a written opt-out, pledging to meet capability targets without binding itself to the percentage. Madrid estimates its effort at around 2.1% of GDP, less than half of what Washington demands. US Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker said the summit "will really be a measurement of progress" and that "President Trump fully expects all allies to step up immediately, head toward 5% of GDP on defense, and do so with urgency."

President Trump fully expects all allies to step up immediately, head toward 5% of GDP on defense, and do so with urgency.

Spain in the crosshairs

Spain arrives doubly exposed: for its refusal to adopt the 5% path and for vetoing the use of the Rota and Morón bases during the Iran war. Defense Secretary of State Amparo Valcarce maintains that Spain's spending level will suffice to meet agreed capability goals, but Washington does not share that view. The Spanish government points to a NATO estimate from February confirming it reached 2% of GDP in 2025, and the Defense Ministry says investment will continue to grow "very importantly" this year.

Rutte's balancing act

Secretary-General Mark Rutte has made keeping Trump engaged his top priority. During a late-June visit to Washington, he unveiled display boards with the headline "The Trump Trillion," highlighting an additional $1.2 trillion in defense spending by European allies and Canada since 2017.

I want to show you what this president was able to achieve.

Rutte hopes to avoid public clashes in Ankara by placing defense production at the center of the summit. He will announce what he calls a "defense industrial revolution," with tens of billions of dollars in new contracts and a parallel forum bringing together major arms manufacturers. Claudia Major, a trans-Atlantic security expert at the German Marshall Fund, said the goal is "to show that there is a market for the US industry and also to make an economic case in favor of NATO that Trump hopefully will find attractive."

To show that there is a market for the US industry and also to make an economic case in favor of NATO that Trump hopefully will find attractive.

Turkey's transformation

Once seen as a difficult ally over its purchase of Russian S-400 systems, Turkey now positions itself as a pillar of Atlantic defense. Its drone industry has become a backbone of Ukraine's defense, and over half of Turkey's $10 billion in defense exports in 2025 went to NATO partners. Trump has hinted he might surprise Erdogan with the sale of jet engines critical for Turkey's fighter program. Ahmet Erdi Öztürk, a lecturer at London Metropolitan University, said Turkey is leveraging its geopolitics to become an indispensable defense partner.

Turkey has no oil, no gas, no energy, but it has its geopolitics, which is quite important, and it has to look for alternatives to instrumentalize its importance, in this case being an important defense partner.

Broader European unease

Beyond Spain, other European leaders have voiced frustration. French President Emmanuel Macron has complained that the withdrawal of US troops is happening without planning or consultation. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has also clashed openly with Washington. The summit will test whether Rutte can paper over these divisions and present a united front.