Datafolha's survey of 2,520 voters, conducted 20 to 22 October with a two-point margin of error, puts Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 50% each of valid votes.
Flávio Bolsonaro won the 4 October first round with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, the closest first round since 1985 according to El Mundo.
The candidates face off at the TV Globo studios in Rio de Janeiro, after a first debate on Band that was marked by insults.
Lula offered to publish his assets, tax returns and phone records, and those of his wife and children, if Flávio Bolsonaro did the same, and the electoral court says candidates must do the publishing.
Datafolha's survey, conducted from 20 to 22 October among 2,520 voters, has Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro level at 50% each of valid votes ahead of the runoff on Sunday 25 October. Folha de S.Paulo published the figures on Thursday 22 October, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Counting blank and null ballots and undecided voters, Flávio Bolsonaro stands at 47% and Lula at 46%, while 5% plan to cast a blank or null vote and 2% remain undecided. The previous Datafolha poll, published a week earlier, gave Flávio Bolsonaro 51% of valid votes against 49% for Lula, and the first survey of the second-round campaign had him ahead 52% to 48%. Datafolha says all of these shifts fall within the margin of error, but the latest reading shows Lula's approval (49%) edging past his disapproval (48%) for the first time in several months.
Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October with 47.03% against 45.16% for Lula, the closest first round since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985, according to El Mundo. Lula himself described his first-round campaign as the most 'disorganized' in decades, and his camp has since filled the streets and social media. The Workers' Party is betting that a mobilisation on that scale can reverse the result, and a WhatsApp channel called 'Armée de Lula' reportedly has 8.5 million subscribers. The incumbent has also announced costly social measures, with spending commitments of 300,000 million reais (about 52,000 million euros), according to El Mundo.
Data from the article text
The two candidates meet in a televised debate on Friday 23 October at the TV Globo studios in Rio de Janeiro. The first debate, broadcast on the Band channel earlier in the campaign, was marked by a barrage of insults, and El Mundo judged Flávio Bolsonaro the stronger performer in it. Before the debate both men have pledged to publish their assets and those of their families. Lula offered to disclose his assets, tax returns and phone conversations, along with those of his wife and children, if Flávio Bolsonaro did the same. El País reports that Flávio Bolsonaro took up the challenge, although the content and timing of the disclosures remain unclear. Brazil's Superior Electoral Court has said the candidates, not the court, are responsible for making the information public.
Thirteen members of the United States Congress, including Senator Bernie Sanders, have written to Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg asking for clarification on reports that content linked to Lula was restricted while posts favouring Flávio Bolsonaro circulated more freely. The lawmakers say they received such accounts. Their letter also mentions the suspension of ads, temporary limits on paid boosting and questions about how Meta's artificial intelligence works.
Lula is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term, and his 2022 defeat of Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 points was the closest result in Brazilian history, according to El País. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after his 2022 defeat, and is currently under house arrest, according to La Libre. His son has promised tough security measures and an improvement in the cost of living, and has vowed to send Lula into retirement. Closing rallies are scheduled for Saturday 24 October, with the right in Rio de Janeiro and the left in São Paulo. Voters go to the polls on Sunday 25 October.
Data from the article text
Pollar is free and carries no ads in the text. Its members keep it going.
Support PollarElections · Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo
Datafolha's latest poll before Sunday's runoff puts incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro level at 50% of valid votes, with a televised debate set for Friday 23 October in Rio de Janeiro.
AI text based on reports by La Libre.be, EL PAÍS, Deutsche Welle and other publishers. Published .