Trump hails 'good talks' with Iran as Oman floats Strait of Hormuz plan, but drone strikes test pause

A fragile pause

President Trump abruptly suspended 13 consecutive nights of airstrikes on Iran early Saturday. By Monday, he was telling reporters aboard Air Force One that "we're having good talks" and "I think there's a good chance that something could happen." But he also warned that if negotiations fail, "we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago." The pause held for a third day, though Iran-backed militias launched drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq.

We're having good talks... I think there's a good chance that something could happen, and if it does, good, if it doesn't, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.

Iran denies direct negotiations

Tehran quickly pushed back. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said mediators may convey messages but "at present, we are not engaged in any negotiations with the United States." Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi discussed the strait with Omani and Saudi counterparts, emphasizing the need to "lift the insecurity imposed on the Strait of Hormuz due to the aggressive actions of the United States." Iran also said it remains in control of the waterway.

Mediators may convey messages from the American side to us regarding current developments in the region. But at present, we are not engaged in any negotiations with the United States.

Oman floats a joint management plan

On Tuesday, a Gulf source told Reuters that Oman had presented Iran with a proposal for a regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz. Modeled on the Strait of Malacca, it would rely on voluntary fees from users to fund navigation, environmental protection, and search and rescue, and would prevent Iran from exercising sole control. The plan has backing from other regional states.

Proxy attacks test the truce

Despite the lull in direct US-Iran hostilities, Iran-linked groups struck on Monday. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones aimed at petroleum targets, including in Riyadh, launched from Iraq by Iran-backed militias. Jordan shot down two drones, and Iraqi security sources reported a series of drone attacks in the north. Yemen's Houthi rebels said they targeted oil transit sites bound for Yanbu, retaliation for Saudi drone incursions. Pakistan, a mediator, condemned the attacks as a "grave threat to peace and stability."

The collapsed June ceasefire

The current diplomacy attempts to revive a June 17 ceasefire that briefly halted US strikes, lifted a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and partially reopened the strait. But Iran interpreted vague language as granting it authority over the waterway, insisted ships follow a coastal route, and attacked tankers that took an alternate path. By early July, the deal had collapsed, and the US launched 13 nights of strikes that Trump suspended on Saturday.

What comes next

Trump told Axios that mediating countries asked him to hold fire, and he is giving diplomacy "not much time. Either it goes fast or not at all." He dismissed concerns about ammunition stockpiles, saying "we have a lot of ammunition... more than we could ever use." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who favors continuing the war, visits the White House on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Iran threatened retaliation against Ukraine for a Caspian Sea strike that killed an Iranian sailor, with Araghchi telling EU and Russian counterparts the incident "cannot go unanswered." Oil prices fell as much as 12% from Thursday's peak to Monday's trough, the biggest drop in over two months.