Evening Brief, Tuesday 26 May

On Monday night, United States forces struck missile launch sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran, near the strategic port of Bandar Abbas and Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command described the operations as self-defence measures to protect American troops.

“US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.”

Iran reported several loud explosions and multiple fatalities, claiming its air defences shot down a US MQ-9 drone. The strikes cast further doubt on a fragile ceasefire in place since early April, even as top Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha for talks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting India, acknowledged that finalising the wording of an initial agreement would take a few days but insisted the Strait of Hormuz “is going to be open one way or the other.” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards asserted their “right to retaliate” for any violations, while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei declared on television that regional countries would no longer serve “as shields for US bases” and that the United States was losing its influence. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas passes, remains the central flashpoint. The proposed agreement reportedly includes a 60-day ceasefire extension during which Iran would not levy fees on ships in exchange for US sanctions relief, but fundamental disagreements on Iran’s nuclear programme persist.

Russia dramatically escalated its rhetoric on Monday, warning foreign diplomats and citizens to leave Kyiv “as soon as possible” ahead of what it called a new campaign of “systematic strikes” against decision-making centres. In a rare phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the attacks would target military-industrial facilities in the capital, citing a Ukrainian drone strike on a dormitory in Starobilsk, in Russian-occupied Luhansk, that Moscow says killed 21 civilians.

“Under these circumstances, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will begin a sequence of systematic strikes against the facilities of the military-industrial complex in Kyiv.”

Ukraine dismissed the threats as “shameless blackmail,” noting that Russia has regularly bombarded Kyiv since the full-scale invasion began. The EU summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires to condemn the warning, with foreign affairs spokesperson Anitta Hipper accusing Moscow of trying to “sow panic” and showing “total contempt for all peace efforts.” EU ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova said she had no intention of leaving. Earlier on Sunday, Russia had struck Kyiv with a hypersonic Oreshnik missile, killing two and injuring 91. The new threats came as the war surpassed World War II in duration, with no active negotiations in sight. President Vladimir Putin ordered the retaliation after the dormitory incident, which Ukraine says struck a Russian military drone unit.

A passenger train struck a minibus carrying students from a special-education school at a level crossing in Buggenhout, East Flanders, on Tuesday morning, killing four people. The dead included two adolescents aged 12 and 15, the bus driver, and the adult chaperone. Two others were seriously injured. The bus was a subcontractor for De Lijn, the Flemish public transport company, and was transporting seven students. Belgium’s public prosecutor said the barrier was lowered and the red signal was active at the time of the collision.

“The images show that the barriers were down and the traffic light was red.”

The train had decelerated from 120 to about 90 kilometres per hour and the driver activated the emergency brake before impact, but could not avoid the crash. The students attended Richtpunt Campus Buggenhout, a school for children with behavioural and emotional disorders. Prime Minister Bart De Wever expressed shock, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said Europe stood united in mourning. The investigation is continuing, but the accident has already prompted renewed scrutiny of level-crossing safety in Belgium.

A brutal May heatwave has killed at least seven people in France and prompted an orange alert for eight western departments, as temperatures shattered records for the month. Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon confirmed the deaths were directly or indirectly linked to the heat.

“What I can say today is that there would be seven deaths directly or indirectly linked to the heat.”

Five of the victims drowned—a German woman and a Frenchman caught in baïne currents on the Atlantic coast, and three others in rivers and lakes—where lifeguard patrols had not yet begun for the season. Two others collapsed during exercise in Paris and near Lyon. Météo-France called the episode “unprecedented for May in the west.” Emergency call centres reported a surge in activity, with Rennes fielding 2,450 calls on Monday, a 30 per cent increase over a typical day. Temperatures exceeded 35°C in the shade, and further highs of 35°C were forecast for Tuesday. The heatwave extends beyond France, with record temperatures in Spain, Portugal, and the UK, but France’s death toll has been the highest so far. The government has convened an inter-ministerial meeting to coordinate the response, while labour laws requiring employers to provide fresh water and ventilated premises have been cited as the heatwave tests workplace safety standards.

European Central Bank officials signalled on Tuesday that they are preparing to raise interest rates at their meeting on 11 June, as the economic shock from the Iran war pushes eurozone inflation toward 4% by year-end. Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel told Reuters that “from the current perspective, I believe a rate hike will be necessary,” while chief economist Philip Lane said the quarterly projections due on the same day will likely show an upward revision.

“Given the magnitude and persistence of the current shock, ignoring the situation is no longer an option. The shock is spreading through the economy and pushing inflation away from our target for a significant period.”

Schnabel noted that long-term oil futures curves now sit above even the ECB’s adverse scenario from March, with extensive damage to energy infrastructure and supply chains. Eurozone inflation has already reached 3%, and business surveys show a sharp rise in firms planning to increase selling prices. The ECB’s consumer expectations survey also shows medium-term inflation expectations drifting higher. Lane added that increased US natural gas supplies could help cushion energy markets, but on net there has been upward pressure on inflation. The deposit rate currently stands at 2%, and markets are pricing in three hikes this year. But Schnabel stressed the ECB would not pre-commit to a path and would decide meeting by meeting. The statements came as European equity markets fell on fading hopes of a US-Iran peace deal.