US strikes southern Iran despite ceasefire, casting doubt on peace talks as Tehran warns of retaliation

A fragile ceasefire under strain

United States forces carried out a series of strikes in southern Iran late Monday, targeting missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (Centcom) described the operations as 'self-defense' measures to protect American troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Captain Tim Hawkins, a Centcom spokesman, stated that the US military 'continues to defend our forces while exercising restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.' The attacks were reported near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas and around Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.

Iranian state media reported several loud explosions near Bandar Abbas around midnight local time, adding that the situation in the city was normal and authorities were investigating. Iranian sources also reported multiple fatalities following a US attack in the area of Larak Island, though the US military initially made no mention of casualties.

Iran's response and threat of retaliation

Iran's Revolutionary Guards asserted their 'right to retaliate' for any violations of the ceasefire, calling this right legitimate in a statement carried by state media. The Guards also claimed that air defense units shot down a US MQ-9 drone and opened fire on a fighter jet that had entered Iranian airspace. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, in a televised address marking the Islamic festival of Eid al-Adha, declared that regional countries would no longer serve 'as shields for US bases' and that the United States was losing its influence in the region.

The countries in the region will no longer serve as shields for US bases. The clock cannot be turned back.

Khamenei was appointed successor after his father was killed at the start of the war, though he is reported to have been injured himself and has not appeared publicly since his appointment, fueling speculation about his health.

Diplomacy in Doha

Despite the military escalation, top Iranian negotiators arrived in Doha, Qatar, for the latest round of talks aimed at ending the conflict. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India, acknowledged that finalizing the precise wording of an initial agreement would likely take 'a few days.' He stressed that the Strait of Hormuz 'is going to be open one way or the other,' calling Iran's blockade unlawful and unsustainable.

There were some talks going on in Qatar today, so we'll see if we can make progress. I think it's a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it'll take a few days.

President Donald Trump suggested a possible compromise on Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, proposing on Truth Social that Iran either hand over its highly enriched uranium to the US or place it under international supervision. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai cautioned that while progress had been made, a deal was not 'imminent.'

The wider regional picture

The diplomatic effort faces additional complications from the Israel-Lebanon front. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to expand attacks against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, vowing to 'crush' the group. Hezbollah responded by targeting three army barracks and a military base in northern Israel, citing Israeli violations of the ceasefire that has been in place since mid-April. Iran has previously insisted that a full ceasefire in Lebanon must be part of any agreement with the United States.

Oil markets and global stakes

The Strait of Hormuz remains a central flashpoint, with roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas passing through the waterway. Oil prices fluctuated following the US strikes, with West Texas Intermediate dropping more than 5% while international benchmark Brent Crude rose, both remaining below $100 per barrel. The ongoing Iranian blockade has severely disrupted global energy flows, rattling the world economy. Negotiations in Doha are focused on reopening the strait, potentially unfreezing Iranian funds, and addressing Iran's nuclear program — though fundamental disagreements persist on the latter.

A proposed extension of the ceasefire by 60 days is reportedly on the table, during which Iran would not levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for US sanctions relief while a final peace agreement is negotiated.