Brief poranny, sobota, 29 sierpnia

A glacier collapse sent rock, ice, mud and debris through river valleys along the Nepal-China border, destroying bridges, roads and power stations on a trade route between Kathmandu and Lhasa. Nepal police put the confirmed death toll at 469 by Friday, while rescue teams had pulled 1,545 people to safety and still listed 2,381 people as unaccounted for, including 644 foreign nationals. Authorities deployed nearly 15,000 security personnel, drones, sniffer dogs and heavy machinery, but terrain and broken infrastructure slowed every trip into the valleys.

The danger did not end when the first torrent passed. Debris created natural dams upstream, and officials halted helicopter flights on Friday after one barrier lake began to break its banks. Chinese water officials warned that a larger lake near the collapse site continued to fill, with about 3 million cubic metres of water expected to flow into the reservoir over three days and peak breach risk around September 1.

Relief teams moved evacuees to military bases and converted schools into supply points, where aid workers handed out solar panels, clothes and hygiene kits. UNICEF said at least 17,000 children needed urgent help, while the Red Cross estimated that 93,000 people had been affected. The disaster will test whether Himalayan governments can treat glacier hazards as live infrastructure risks, not just remote mountain tragedies.

The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran reached six months with no settlement in sight. US and Israeli forces carried out at least 3,580 attacks against Iranian targets, while Iran launched at least 2,053 attacks across the Gulf and the wider Middle East, according to conflict monitors. Official figures cited by national authorities put deaths at 3,527 in Iran, 4,350 in Lebanon and 28 in Gulf states, while Iranian strikes killed 60 Israelis and 18 US service members.

Diplomats now chase a narrower prize: ships moving through Hormuz. Before the war, about 100 vessels passed daily through the strait, which carried roughly a fifth of global petroleum shipments. After the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared it closed on March 2, traffic fell to five ships a day, briefly rose after a June arrangement, then dropped again when Washington resumed its port blockade in July.

Qatar and Pakistan have kept mediation alive, and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met Iranian leaders in Tehran to discuss maritime transit. Iran is drafting conditions for reopening the passage, including an end to the US naval counter-blockade on Iranian ports, compensation, sanctions relief and a full conclusion to the regional war. Brent crude traded near $89.45 a barrel, lower on the week, but tanker costs on Saudi Arabia-China routes still reached $647,000 a day.

The sea lane has become the bargaining table because the battlefield has stopped producing answers. A narrow strait now carries not just oil, but the credibility of every claim that this war can still be contained.

Przewodniczący Rezerwy Federalnej Kevin Warsh wykorzystał Jackson Hole, by powiedzieć inwestorom, że bank centralny może jeszcze podnieść stopy, jeśli inflacja szybko nie zbliży się do 2 proc. Stwierdził, że inflacja utrzymuje się powyżej celu od 65 miesięcy, a stopę overnight, dziś w przedziale 3,5–3,75 proc., uznał za główne narzędzie przywracania stabilności cen. Był to niezręczny komunikat dla Białego Domu, który wybrał go w maju, licząc na łagodniejszą politykę pieniężną.

Rynki zareagowały szybko. Rentowność dwuletnich obligacji skarbowych USA wzrosła o 6,6 pkt bazowego do 4,34 proc., najwyżej od miesiąca, a indeks dolara zyskał 0,4 proc. do 99,55. Z wycen kontraktów terminowych wynikało, że implikowane prawdopodobieństwo wrześniowej podwyżki o ćwierć punktu wynosi 46 proc., wobec 35 proc. dzień wcześniej. Rynek akcji zachwiał się w trakcie wystąpienia, po czym odrobił straty i zakończył dzień niewielkimi wzrostami.

Warsh zapowiedział też cichszy Fed. Powiedział, że bank centralny ograniczy jednoznaczne wskazówki co do przyszłej polityki i pozwoli rynkom wyrobić własny pogląd. Brzmi to skromnie, ale zmienia układ, w którym inwestorzy żyli od kryzysu finansowego: mniej podpowiedzi, więcej danych, więcej ryzyka. Spór o stopy sprowadza się teraz do tego, czy gospodarstwa domowe i firmy zdołają udźwignąć droższy pieniądz, gdy koszty energii i globalny konflikt nadal podbijają ceny.

King Harald V of Norway died at Rikshospitalet in Oslo at 6:35 a.m. on Friday, aged 89, after treatment for hemolytic anemia and a bacterial blood infection. He had reigned for more than 35 years and was Europe's oldest reigning monarch. Flowers appeared outside the royal palace before the formal announcement, a quiet Norwegian gesture for a king who turned understatement into a public style.

His son immediately became King Haakon VIII, with Queen Mette-Marit beside him. The 53-year-old monarch will take his constitutional oath before the Storting on Tuesday at 1 p.m., in a televised ceremony followed by a short address. Norway no longer holds coronations, so Haakon is expected to follow the modern pattern of a church blessing and then a national tour.

Harald became king in 1991 after the death of King Olav V, and he was the first monarch born in Norway in more than 500 years. His biography mixed constitutional duty, sailing medals and a famous nine-year fight to marry Sonja Haraldsen, an Oslo commoner. Haakon inherits a throne with no executive power but considerable social weight. His reign begins not with a political programme, but with a national request for continuity.

Spain asked Brussels for operational help in Ceuta after a mass crossing from Morocco left the enclave struggling to screen, shelter and return migrants. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska requested ten extra Frontex officers, support from Europol and the European Union Agency for Asylum, and an extension of Operation Minerva beyond September 2. Madrid also asked for more than €32 million in emergency EU funding and wants a Guardia Civil patrol vessel kept in local waters through 2027.

Officials need help with triage. Arrivals must be sorted into medical transfers, asylum applicants, unaccompanied minors and return procedures, but Ceuta's administrative space is tight. Spain asked the EU asylum agency to conduct interviews and translation work remotely, an unusually bureaucratic answer to a very physical crisis of crowded beaches, makeshift camps and angry local politics.

The broader picture is harsher. An estimated 72,000 migrants crossed from Morocco over July 30 and 31, and while most returned quickly, thousands remained in a city of about 85,000 people. Spanish authorities recorded 82 migrant deaths on their side of the border, while Morocco confirmed 14 more. Local protests turned violent, camps were attacked, and migrants clashed with authorities near military vehicles.

Spanish courts and international treaties prevent collective expulsions, so the state must process people one by one even as politics demands speed. Ceuta shows Europe's border dilemma in miniature: geography pushes people to the fence, law slows the gate, and anger fills the space between.

US District Judge Rita Lin permanently blocked the Trump administration's directive designating Anthropic as a national-security supply-chain risk. In a 59-page ruling in northern California, she found that the Pentagon punished the company after it refused to remove safety guardrails from Claude, its artificial-intelligence model. The court said the blacklisting violated First Amendment and due-process protections, and it ordered agencies to rescind instructions cutting off Anthropic software.

The fight began after Pentagon officials demanded unrestricted access to Claude for lawful military uses. Anthropic's contracts barred use of its technology for lethal fully autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance of Americans, arguing that generative models were not reliable enough for life-or-death battlefield decisions without human control. The government said private vendors could not veto elected officials, but officials also conceded that Anthropic lacked backdoor access to models deployed in national-security systems.

The ruling lands as Anthropic prepares a planned initial public offering targeting a valuation near $2 trillion. The administration can appeal, and a separate procurement lawsuit continues in Washington, so the clash is not over. Still, the decision gives AI companies a stronger argument that safety limits are not disloyalty. A chatbot that once spread by invitation and wonder now faces the oldest American technology test: what did you know, who could use it, and who gets to say no.