World·since 26 May·1,221 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
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This week16 entries
State of playtoday 10:56
Ukraine Track
The US-mediated Abu Dhabi talks ended without agreement on a ceasefire, territory or security guarantees. Kushner says Washington is working with Russia and Ukraine on the war's largest prisoner exchange.
Kushner and Witkoff met Putin in Moscow on 12 November, then Zelenskyy in Dublin. Kushner says both sides agreed to bring Europeans into the next round, which could cover postwar European security as well as territory. Moscow has not publicly confirmed, and the delegation's countries and mandate are unspecified.
Europe and Allies
More than 40 European states met in Dublin on 12 November, and 39 backed a declaration that European security must be decided with Europeans. EU leaders still dispute whether the EU, individual states or another format speaks for the continent. Denmark votes on the Greenland deal on 19 November.
Trade and Iran
Trump threatened to double tariffs on Mexico, Navarro rejected the EU's zero-for-zero offer, and the US-China truce expires in January. Trump says the US needs no Iran deal.
The next test is who Europe names to its seat at the next Ukraine round.
What comes next
- in 6 daysDanish parliament votes on the trilateral Greenland security deal
- in 28 daysTrump must sit for a deposition in his BBC lawsuit
- in 49 daysSouth Africa and Rwanda lose AGOA duty-free access
- in 49 daysFrance takes over air defence of Rzeszów hub in NATO mission
Open questions
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
- Will Trump order renewed strikes on Iran after the 3 November midterms?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Threatens to double tariffs on Mexico over migrants, says the US needs no Iran deal, and floats meeting Xi and Putin in China.
13 Nov
JD Vance US Vice President
Taken off Iran talks by Trump and told to focus on crime and corruption in Democrat-run states.
13 Nov
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Met Kushner in Dublin and agreed to bring European partners into the next round, while pressing for firmer guarantees.
13 Nov
Jared Kushner US envoy on Russia and Ukraine
Says both sides agreed to include Europeans in the next round and seeks NATO-style guarantees for Ukraine.
13 Nov
EU leaders European Council members
Demand a seat in the talks but remain divided on who speaks for Europe.
13 Nov
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Met Kushner in Moscow; Moscow has not publicly confirmed a European role in the next round.
13 Nov
Marco Rubio US Secretary of State
Defended US positions at the G7 in Paris, saying sanctions and the blockade make new Iran strikes unnecessary for now.
13 Nov
Hakeem Jeffries House Democratic leader
Leads a Democratic caucus that gains oversight powers when the new Congress sits on 3 January 2027.
13 Nov
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC) (%)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Brent crude, December contract (USD)
115.93→89.66 USD
28/10 → 10/11 · pollar.news
Promises15
Donald Trumpunclear
Plywood, paper products, machinery and seaweed will come off the 50% tariff list on Canadian goods from 30 October.
24 Oct · due 30 Oct · pollar.news
White Housekept
Russia and Ukraine will halt military action in Oleshky from 29 October to allow aid and civilian evacuation.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · pollar.news
Vladimir Putinkept
Russia will resume technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US after 10 November.
21 Oct · after 10 November 2026 · apnews.com
Jared Kushneropen
Russia and Ukraine will include European partners in the next negotiating round.
12 Nov · next round of talks, no date · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will announce a decision on Iran soon.
6 Nov · soon, no date given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
US military aid to Israel of about $4 billion a year will end at the close of 2026 while arms sales continue.
3 Nov · due 31 Dec · apnews.com
Trump administrationopen
The US will end duty-free AGOA access for South Africa and Rwanda from 1 January 2027.
3 Nov · due 1 Jan 2027 · pollar.news
Mark Carneyopen
Canadian and US teams will work on a trade deal in the coming weeks.
1 Nov · in the coming weeks · pollar.news
Eleven EU countriesopen
France, Germany, Italy and eight other EU countries will release 42.6 million barrels of oil, including 20.5 million of diesel, by end-January 2027.
29 Oct · due 31 Jan 2027 · lemonde.fr
US officialsopen
The US will launch a tariff-relief programme for automakers investing in US production, with a rate of about 10%.
29 Oct
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,221 entries since 26 May
9–15 November11 entries
Jared Kushner said after meeting Putin in Moscow and Zelenskyy in Dublin on 12 November that both sides agreed to include European partners in the next negotiating round. Moscow has not publicly confirmed, and the delegation's mandate is unspecified.
Trump said on 12 November the US could double tariffs on Mexico if it fails to stop more than 1,000 migrants travelling north after the US election, explicitly tying market access to Mexican cooperation on immigration enforcement.
Trump said on 12 November the United States does not need an agreement with Iran and told Vice President JD Vance to focus on crime and corruption in Democrat-run states, ending Vance's role in efforts to resolve the Iran war.
Trade adviser Peter Navarro said on 11 November that the EU's zero-for-zero industrial tariff proposal falls short, and that Brussels must also address non-tariff barriers such as VAT and food-safety rules before Washington considers lowering tariffs.
The House voted 211 to 204 on 10 November to return the impeachment articles against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to committee, making a floor vote before the current Congress ends virtually impossible.
Brent crude fell to $89.66 on 10 November, its lowest since 31 August, after Trump said military action against Iran was not currently necessary. Stocks and airline shares rose on hopes of lower fuel costs.
Washington formally asked Moscow to consider security guarantees for Ukraine modelled on NATO's Articles 4 and 5, ahead of the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 November. The request ties a Ukraine settlement to binding commitments.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told G7 allies in Paris that economic pressure on Iran is strong enough to avoid renewed large-scale combat. Trump had earlier held off on strikes after appeals from regional countries, including Qatar.
The Supreme Court on 9 November granted the administration's emergency request to lift a lower-court order blocking border barriers in an area including Big Bend National Park. The environmental lawsuit remains pending.
Trump said he may meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in China, with reports placing the talks in Shenzhen during the APEC summit. A Danish researcher doubts the three leaders can end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
G7 foreign ministers met in Paris on 9 November amid US disputes with allies over Ukraine, NATO and the ICC. Four diplomats told Reuters the Democratic gains could narrow Trump's room for manoeuvre but not return Washington to multilateralism.
2–8 November20 entries
Trump told CNN that renewed hostilities with Iran depend on whether Tehran signs a very strong agreement. He said three US aircraft carriers were in the region and that Washington had identified 38 bridges as possible targets.
Trump called on the Justice Department to investigate Senator Elissa Slotkin and others, accusing them of targeting his cabinet and Republican donors, Reuters reported on 8 November. It follows his 7 November order to probe Democrats over alleged threats.
Trump ordered the Justice Department on 7 November to investigate Democrats, calling their impeachment and punishment calls a "criminal act" without evidence. No specific case or legal basis was identified, extending his use of federal law enforcement against political opponents.
France will take over air defence around the Rzeszów-Jasionka hub in Poland from 1 January 2027 within a NATO mission. The airport is the main channel for Western aid to Ukraine, and French systems will operate alongside US-made Patriot batteries.
Trump appointed immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff, AP and BBC reported on 7 November, placing an architect of the enforcement programme at the centre of the administration days after Democrats won Congress.
The Justice Department abandoned its effort to stop California counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots, Reuters reported on 6 November. Federal officials had alleged the ballots were likely cast by non-citizens; the Supreme Court had earlier declined emergency intervention.
The White House proposed a wider European security framework on 6 November, with permanent consultations, crisis communications, military transparency and reciprocal de-escalation steps. Envoy Jared Kushner said Europeans would be consulted and invited to join if progress is made; no European government has endorsed it.
pollar.news · rferl.org · hurriyetdailynews.com · apnews.com · full article
Trump said the US midterm elections were rigged without naming any seats, and that a decision on Iran would come soon, after Republicans lost control of Congress. The remark links the electoral defeat to the unresolved Iran war.
Trump said on 5 November, two days after the midterm defeat, that tariffs could rise as high as 300% for foreign companies that do not build production facilities in the United States. He named no countries or products and gave no start date.
Vice President JD Vance said the war with Iran cost Republicans the midterms, while Trump said he does not know whether Vance will run in 2028. Democrats now hold the House and the Senate.
Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the 3 November midterms, and Trump conceded the war with Iran was one factor, while defending the attack. Tehran read the result as a rejection of that war.
The EU rejected an idea attributed to US negotiators to resume European purchases of Russian gas through a pipeline crossing Ukraine, POLITICO Europe reported on 4 November. The dispute follows a period in which Trump appeared more accommodating toward Moscow, including a deal involving Russian diesel.
The Kremlin confirmed to Reuters that Russia, Ukraine and the United States will hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, following Trump's statements that a three-way meeting was being prepared. It would put Washington directly at the table with both sides.
CNN projected on 4 November that Democrats won enough races to take the US House, with early Senate results favouring them in North Carolina and South Carolina. Congress gains oversight and blocking powers, though foreign policy stays largely with the president.
Trump said on 3 November the United States would stop providing roughly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel while continuing arms sales. The announcement appeared to describe a shift from grants to purchases rather than an end to military cooperation.
Greenland's parliament backed the trilateral agreement with Denmark and the United States on 3 November, with 16 votes in favour, none against and seven abstentions. The Danish parliament is scheduled to vote on the deal on 19 November.
US District Judge Tanya Chutkan on 3 November prohibited the Justice Department and Homeland Security from sending states lists of voters deemed potentially ineligible or asking officials to segregate or withhold ballots. The ruling limits use of immigration-enforcement data in state-run elections on the eve of the midterm.
Washington notified Congress that South Africa and Rwanda will lose African Growth and Opportunity Act duty-free access from 1 January 2027, citing trade barriers, corruption and rights concerns. The decision ties trade preferences to political conduct.
The Justice Department sought emergency Supreme Court intervention on 2 November to stop California counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots that federal officials link to people they allege may not be US citizens, filed the day before the midterm.
Five NATO diplomats told POLITICO that European allies expect Donald Trump could respond to a Republican defeat in the 3 November midterm by pulling more US troops from Europe and stepping up attacks on the alliance.
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