Trump teases big Ukraine deal with Moscow as Berlin and Warsaw demand European seat

Trump announces a deal without details

On Thursday, 5 November, US President Donald Trump met Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev at the White House in an encounter that was not announced in advance. Afterwards Trump said a 'very big' agreement with Moscow on Ukraine was coming, one that would affect more than Ukraine and possibly all of Europe. He gave no details and said everyone would be enthusiastic about it. The announcement came in a war that has lasted more than four and a half years, and Trump has not yet been able to point to a breakthrough. He had also drawn criticism at home for his closeness to Russia.

Melania Trump's ceasefire push and the Kremlin's reply

Melania Trump hosted a meeting at the White House with representatives of Moscow and Kyiv, and Dmitriev took part in a reception there. Ukrainian negotiator David Arachamia was among those present, while Trump himself did not meet the Ukrainian delegation, by his own account. The First Lady argued for a 'lasting' ceasefire in Ukraine and pointed to a six-day truce in the Russian-occupied frontline city of Oleschky in the Kherson region in late October, which was accompanied by a humanitarian aid operation. She handed Dmitriev a letter for Vladimir Putin, and he is now expected in Moscow with it. The Kremlin has meanwhile dampened expectations. Kremlin spokesman Peskow said a conversation with the Europeans would be necessary, because the talks concern future security in Europe and mutual security guarantees between Russia and Ukraine, and Russia expects the EU to appoint a negotiator. Moscow also said it sees no willingness on the European side so far to discuss a future security system.

Berlin, Brussels and Warsaw insist on European involvement

On Friday, 6 November, an EU Commission spokesperson said it is for the European Union to decide on matters that affect its security. She added that the road to ending the war is still long, because Russia has shown little movement so far. Government spokesman Stefan Kornelius said in Berlin that Germany and the United States agree on four basic points: the war in Ukraine must end first, talks on a security order follow, an agreement is possible only once everything is settled, and NATO partners must be on board. Kornelius added that Europe's own involvement is needed because talks on Europe's security and on peace in Ukraine concern Europe at its core.

“Negotiations on Europe's security and on a peace in Ukraine are not purposeful without European participation, from our perspective.”

Kornelius also said Chancellor Friedrich Merz had telephoned Trump overnight. At a meeting of the Council of the Baltic Sea States in Warsaw, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Europe must be an integral part of efforts to end the war.

“The future of Ukraine must not be decided without Ukraine, and Europe's security not without Europe.”

Warsaw and Rome press for a single European voice

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, speaking to journalists, warned that American negotiators misjudge Russia's motives. He argued that Putin is not after deals but after expanding Russian dominance over Europe, and he said the US approach seemed to put more pressure on the victim than on the aggressor. Tusk warned that Putin may have fewer incentives for a deal in winter, when conditions for Ukrainians are hard and Russia could strengthen its bargaining position by destroying power and heating plants. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni wants EU leaders to name one common representative rather than leave the negotiations to individual governments, and she made that case in a letter to European Council President Antonio Costa. The dispute over who will represent Europe in Abu Dhabi is still open. Kushner said Europeans would be consulted on the sidelines, and they are usually represented by the E3 format of Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

Talks in Abu Dhabi and open questions

Ukraine negotiations are planned in Abu Dhabi for the week of 9 November, according to Kornelius. Kushner wrote on X that the US had held talks in Brussels on Thursday with Ukrainian, NATO and European partners, and he named security guarantees for Ukraine and a broader European security architecture as the two foundations of lasting peace. He gave no further specifics, and neither did Trump on the promised agreement. Dmitriev is expected in Moscow with Melania Trump's letter, and it remains unclear what the announced deal would contain.