World·since 26 May·1,212 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
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This week19 entries
State of playtoday 16:56
Europe Security Plan
Jared Kushner outlined a wider European security framework on 6 and 7 November: permanent consultations, crisis communications, military transparency and reciprocal de-escalation steps, with NATO kept in a role. Marco Rubio said nothing is finalised. Trump said a deal with Russia could cover "all of Europe".
Europeans want a ceasefire first. Norway's Jonas Gahr Støre said on 9 November that European security should be discussed only after the war ends. France's foreign minister said Europeans will join the Abu Dhabi round on 10 and 11 November, where Russia is expected to seek limits on NATO deployments in Central and Eastern Europe.
NATO allies fear a link to the Pentagon force-posture review due in December. No withdrawal has been announced.
Summitry and Home Front
Trump said he may meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in China, with reports pointing to Shenzhen during the APEC summit. A Danish researcher doubts the three can end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
At home, Trump told CBS his deportation policy might have been too tough, yet Stephen Miller's rise to chief of staff points to continued confrontation with Congress. Denmark votes on the Greenland deal on 19 November.
What comes next
- tomorrowTrilateral US-Russia-Ukraine talks begin in Abu Dhabi (10 and 11 November)
- in 10 daysDanish parliament votes on the trilateral Greenland security deal
- in 53 daysSouth Africa and Rwanda lose AGOA duty-free access
- in 53 daysFrance takes over air defence of Rzeszów hub in NATO mission
Open questions
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
- Will Washington actually suspend NATO's PURL programme or intelligence sharing to press Kyiv over refinery strikes?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Says he may meet Xi Jinping and Putin in China, calls renewed war with Iran unlikely if Tehran signs a very strong agreement, and says a Russia deal could cover all of Europe.
9 Nov
JD Vance US Vice President
Blames the Iran war for the Republican midterm defeat as the 2028 race opens, while Trump says he does not know if Vance will run.
5 Nov
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Presses for firmer guarantees, reconstruction aid and 2027 financing, and is due at trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November.
9 Nov
Jared Kushner US envoy on Russia and Ukraine
Outlined a wider European security framework with consultations and de-escalation steps, and says Europeans will be invited to join if progress is made.
9 Nov
EU leaders European Council members
Reject resuming Russian gas purchases and a new security arrangement before the war ends; Berlin, Brussels and Warsaw demand a seat in the talks.
7 Nov
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Russia will attend the Abu Dhabi talks while Putin rules out a ceasefire and any handover of occupied land; Trump floats a meeting with him and Xi.
9 Nov
Hakeem Jeffries House Democratic leader
Leads a Democratic caucus that won the House and gains oversight powers when the new Congress sits on 3 January 2027.
7 Nov
Kaja Kallas EU High Representative
Says Europe already has a security architecture built on NATO and the EU, and that Russia should not have a veto over it.
7 Nov
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Promises14
Donald Trumpunclear
Plywood, paper products, machinery and seaweed will come off the 50% tariff list on Canadian goods from 30 October.
24 Oct · due 30 Oct · pollar.news
White Housekept
Russia and Ukraine will halt military action in Oleshky from 29 October to allow aid and civilian evacuation.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will announce a decision on Iran soon.
6 Nov · soon, no date given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
US military aid to Israel of about $4 billion a year will end at the close of 2026 while arms sales continue.
3 Nov · due 31 Dec · apnews.com
Trump administrationopen
The US will end duty-free AGOA access for South Africa and Rwanda from 1 January 2027.
3 Nov · due 1 Jan 2027 · pollar.news
Mark Carneyopen
Canadian and US teams will work on a trade deal in the coming weeks.
1 Nov · in the coming weeks · pollar.news
Eleven EU countriesopen
France, Germany, Italy and eight other EU countries will release 42.6 million barrels of oil, including 20.5 million of diesel, by end-January 2027.
29 Oct · due 31 Jan 2027 · lemonde.fr
US officialsopen
The US will launch a tariff-relief programme for automakers investing in US production, with a rate of about 10%.
29 Oct
Vladimir Putinopen
Russia will resume technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US after 10 November.
21 Oct · after 10 November 2026 · apnews.com
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,212 entries since 26 May
9–15 November2 entries
Trump said he may meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in China, with reports placing the talks in Shenzhen during the APEC summit. A Danish researcher doubts the three leaders can end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
G7 foreign ministers met in Paris on 9 November amid US disputes with allies over Ukraine, NATO and the ICC. Four diplomats told Reuters the Democratic gains could narrow Trump's room for manoeuvre but not return Washington to multilateralism.
2–8 November20 entries
Trump told CNN that renewed hostilities with Iran depend on whether Tehran signs a very strong agreement. He said three US aircraft carriers were in the region and that Washington had identified 38 bridges as possible targets.
Trump called on the Justice Department to investigate Senator Elissa Slotkin and others, accusing them of targeting his cabinet and Republican donors, Reuters reported on 8 November. It follows his 7 November order to probe Democrats over alleged threats.
Trump ordered the Justice Department on 7 November to investigate Democrats, calling their impeachment and punishment calls a "criminal act" without evidence. No specific case or legal basis was identified, extending his use of federal law enforcement against political opponents.
France will take over air defence around the Rzeszów-Jasionka hub in Poland from 1 January 2027 within a NATO mission. The airport is the main channel for Western aid to Ukraine, and French systems will operate alongside US-made Patriot batteries.
Trump appointed immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff, AP and BBC reported on 7 November, placing an architect of the enforcement programme at the centre of the administration days after Democrats won Congress.
The Justice Department abandoned its effort to stop California counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots, Reuters reported on 6 November. Federal officials had alleged the ballots were likely cast by non-citizens; the Supreme Court had earlier declined emergency intervention.
The White House proposed a wider European security framework on 6 November, with permanent consultations, crisis communications, military transparency and reciprocal de-escalation steps. Envoy Jared Kushner said Europeans would be consulted and invited to join if progress is made; no European government has endorsed it.
pollar.news · rferl.org · hurriyetdailynews.com · apnews.com · full article
Trump said the US midterm elections were rigged without naming any seats, and that a decision on Iran would come soon, after Republicans lost control of Congress. The remark links the electoral defeat to the unresolved Iran war.
Trump said on 5 November, two days after the midterm defeat, that tariffs could rise as high as 300% for foreign companies that do not build production facilities in the United States. He named no countries or products and gave no start date.
Vice President JD Vance said the war with Iran cost Republicans the midterms, while Trump said he does not know whether Vance will run in 2028. Democrats now hold the House and the Senate.
Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the 3 November midterms, and Trump conceded the war with Iran was one factor, while defending the attack. Tehran read the result as a rejection of that war.
The EU rejected an idea attributed to US negotiators to resume European purchases of Russian gas through a pipeline crossing Ukraine, POLITICO Europe reported on 4 November. The dispute follows a period in which Trump appeared more accommodating toward Moscow, including a deal involving Russian diesel.
The Kremlin confirmed to Reuters that Russia, Ukraine and the United States will hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, following Trump's statements that a three-way meeting was being prepared. It would put Washington directly at the table with both sides.
CNN projected on 4 November that Democrats won enough races to take the US House, with early Senate results favouring them in North Carolina and South Carolina. Congress gains oversight and blocking powers, though foreign policy stays largely with the president.
Trump said on 3 November the United States would stop providing roughly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel while continuing arms sales. The announcement appeared to describe a shift from grants to purchases rather than an end to military cooperation.
Greenland's parliament backed the trilateral agreement with Denmark and the United States on 3 November, with 16 votes in favour, none against and seven abstentions. The Danish parliament is scheduled to vote on the deal on 19 November.
US District Judge Tanya Chutkan on 3 November prohibited the Justice Department and Homeland Security from sending states lists of voters deemed potentially ineligible or asking officials to segregate or withhold ballots. The ruling limits use of immigration-enforcement data in state-run elections on the eve of the midterm.
Washington notified Congress that South Africa and Rwanda will lose African Growth and Opportunity Act duty-free access from 1 January 2027, citing trade barriers, corruption and rights concerns. The decision ties trade preferences to political conduct.
The Justice Department sought emergency Supreme Court intervention on 2 November to stop California counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots that federal officials link to people they allege may not be US citizens, filed the day before the midterm.
Five NATO diplomats told POLITICO that European allies expect Donald Trump could respond to a Republican defeat in the 3 November midterm by pulling more US troops from Europe and stepping up attacks on the alliance.
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