World·since 26 May·1,218 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
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This week18 entries
State of playtoday 16:27
Abu Dhabi Talks
The two days of US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi ended on 11 November without agreement on a ceasefire, territory or security guarantees. Russia and Ukraine did agree a large prisoner exchange.
Washington has asked Moscow to accept guarantees for Ukraine modelled on NATO Articles 4 and 5, and is seeking Putin's blessing for European participation. Russia opposes a European role in the main session.
Europe and Allies
European governments fear Kushner's wider security framework could bypass NATO and be negotiated directly with Russia. The FT reports that a temporary US ban on foreign access to Anthropic's most advanced AI models has deepened fears that Washington could weaponise technology access. Denmark votes on the Greenland deal on 19 November.
Trade and Home Front
Peter Navarro rejected the EU's zero-for-zero industrial tariff offer on 11 November, demanding action on VAT and food-safety rules first. Bessent is preparing Trump–Xi talks on agricultural purchases and rare earths.
Trump suggested deportations may have gone too far, then ruled out amnesty. Mullin says removals continue, and Miller's chief-of-staff role divides Republicans. The next test is whether Putin grants the European seat at the table.
What comes next
- in 8 daysDanish parliament votes on the trilateral Greenland security deal
- in 51 daysSouth Africa and Rwanda lose AGOA duty-free access
- in 51 daysFrance takes over air defence of Rzeszów hub in NATO mission
- in 53 daysNew Congress sits with Democratic control of both chambers
Open questions
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
- Will Washington actually suspend NATO's PURL programme or intelligence sharing to press Kyiv over refinery strikes?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Says Iran strikes are not currently necessary and renewed war is unlikely while talks continue, floats meeting Xi and Putin in China, and his administration asks Moscow for NATO-style guarantees for Ukraine.
10 Nov
JD Vance US Vice President
Blames the Iran war for the Republican midterm defeat as the 2028 race opens, while Trump says he does not know if Vance will run.
5 Nov
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Called the first day of the Abu Dhabi talks constructive and presses for firmer guarantees, reconstruction aid and 2027 financing.
11 Nov
Jared Kushner US envoy on Russia and Ukraine
Says a settlement needs direct Russia-Europe talks with NATO kept in a role, and is pressing Russia to accept European participation in later rounds.
11 Nov
EU leaders European Council members
Reject resuming Russian gas purchases and a new security arrangement before the war ends; Berlin, Brussels and Warsaw demand a seat in the talks.
7 Nov
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Russia attended the Abu Dhabi talks, which ended without a ceasefire, while Putin rules out any handover of occupied land and Moscow opposes a European role in the main session.
11 Nov
Hakeem Jeffries House Democratic leader
Leads a Democratic caucus that won the House and gains oversight powers when the new Congress sits on 3 January 2027.
7 Nov
Marco Rubio US Secretary of State
Told G7 ministers in Paris that sanctions and the blockade make new strikes on Iran unnecessary for now, and called the first day of Abu Dhabi talks very productive.
11 Nov
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC) (%)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Brent crude, December contract (USD)
115.93→89.66 USD
28/10 → 10/11 · pollar.news
Promises14
Donald Trumpunclear
Plywood, paper products, machinery and seaweed will come off the 50% tariff list on Canadian goods from 30 October.
24 Oct · due 30 Oct · pollar.news
White Housekept
Russia and Ukraine will halt military action in Oleshky from 29 October to allow aid and civilian evacuation.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · pollar.news
Vladimir Putinkept
Russia will resume technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US after 10 November.
21 Oct · after 10 November 2026 · apnews.com
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will announce a decision on Iran soon.
6 Nov · soon, no date given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
US military aid to Israel of about $4 billion a year will end at the close of 2026 while arms sales continue.
3 Nov · due 31 Dec · apnews.com
Trump administrationopen
The US will end duty-free AGOA access for South Africa and Rwanda from 1 January 2027.
3 Nov · due 1 Jan 2027 · pollar.news
Mark Carneyopen
Canadian and US teams will work on a trade deal in the coming weeks.
1 Nov · in the coming weeks · pollar.news
Eleven EU countriesopen
France, Germany, Italy and eight other EU countries will release 42.6 million barrels of oil, including 20.5 million of diesel, by end-January 2027.
29 Oct · due 31 Jan 2027 · lemonde.fr
US officialsopen
The US will launch a tariff-relief programme for automakers investing in US production, with a rate of about 10%.
29 Oct
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,218 entries since 26 May
9–15 November8 entries
Trade adviser Peter Navarro said on 11 November that the EU's zero-for-zero industrial tariff proposal falls short, and that Brussels must also address non-tariff barriers such as VAT and food-safety rules before Washington considers lowering tariffs.
The House voted 211 to 204 on 10 November to return the impeachment articles against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to committee, making a floor vote before the current Congress ends virtually impossible.
Brent crude fell to $89.66 on 10 November, its lowest since 31 August, after Trump said military action against Iran was not currently necessary. Stocks and airline shares rose on hopes of lower fuel costs.
Washington formally asked Moscow to consider security guarantees for Ukraine modelled on NATO's Articles 4 and 5, ahead of the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 November. The request ties a Ukraine settlement to binding commitments.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told G7 allies in Paris that economic pressure on Iran is strong enough to avoid renewed large-scale combat. Trump had earlier held off on strikes after appeals from regional countries, including Qatar.
The Supreme Court on 9 November granted the administration's emergency request to lift a lower-court order blocking border barriers in an area including Big Bend National Park. The environmental lawsuit remains pending.
Trump said he may meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in China, with reports placing the talks in Shenzhen during the APEC summit. A Danish researcher doubts the three leaders can end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
G7 foreign ministers met in Paris on 9 November amid US disputes with allies over Ukraine, NATO and the ICC. Four diplomats told Reuters the Democratic gains could narrow Trump's room for manoeuvre but not return Washington to multilateralism.
2–8 November20 entries
Trump told CNN that renewed hostilities with Iran depend on whether Tehran signs a very strong agreement. He said three US aircraft carriers were in the region and that Washington had identified 38 bridges as possible targets.
Trump called on the Justice Department to investigate Senator Elissa Slotkin and others, accusing them of targeting his cabinet and Republican donors, Reuters reported on 8 November. It follows his 7 November order to probe Democrats over alleged threats.
Trump ordered the Justice Department on 7 November to investigate Democrats, calling their impeachment and punishment calls a "criminal act" without evidence. No specific case or legal basis was identified, extending his use of federal law enforcement against political opponents.
France will take over air defence around the Rzeszów-Jasionka hub in Poland from 1 January 2027 within a NATO mission. The airport is the main channel for Western aid to Ukraine, and French systems will operate alongside US-made Patriot batteries.
Trump appointed immigration hardliner Stephen Miller as White House chief of staff, AP and BBC reported on 7 November, placing an architect of the enforcement programme at the centre of the administration days after Democrats won Congress.
The Justice Department abandoned its effort to stop California counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots, Reuters reported on 6 November. Federal officials had alleged the ballots were likely cast by non-citizens; the Supreme Court had earlier declined emergency intervention.
The White House proposed a wider European security framework on 6 November, with permanent consultations, crisis communications, military transparency and reciprocal de-escalation steps. Envoy Jared Kushner said Europeans would be consulted and invited to join if progress is made; no European government has endorsed it.
pollar.news · rferl.org · hurriyetdailynews.com · apnews.com · full article
Trump said the US midterm elections were rigged without naming any seats, and that a decision on Iran would come soon, after Republicans lost control of Congress. The remark links the electoral defeat to the unresolved Iran war.
Trump said on 5 November, two days after the midterm defeat, that tariffs could rise as high as 300% for foreign companies that do not build production facilities in the United States. He named no countries or products and gave no start date.
Vice President JD Vance said the war with Iran cost Republicans the midterms, while Trump said he does not know whether Vance will run in 2028. Democrats now hold the House and the Senate.
Democrats won both the House and the Senate in the 3 November midterms, and Trump conceded the war with Iran was one factor, while defending the attack. Tehran read the result as a rejection of that war.
The EU rejected an idea attributed to US negotiators to resume European purchases of Russian gas through a pipeline crossing Ukraine, POLITICO Europe reported on 4 November. The dispute follows a period in which Trump appeared more accommodating toward Moscow, including a deal involving Russian diesel.
The Kremlin confirmed to Reuters that Russia, Ukraine and the United States will hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November, following Trump's statements that a three-way meeting was being prepared. It would put Washington directly at the table with both sides.
CNN projected on 4 November that Democrats won enough races to take the US House, with early Senate results favouring them in North Carolina and South Carolina. Congress gains oversight and blocking powers, though foreign policy stays largely with the president.
Trump said on 3 November the United States would stop providing roughly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel while continuing arms sales. The announcement appeared to describe a shift from grants to purchases rather than an end to military cooperation.
Greenland's parliament backed the trilateral agreement with Denmark and the United States on 3 November, with 16 votes in favour, none against and seven abstentions. The Danish parliament is scheduled to vote on the deal on 19 November.
US District Judge Tanya Chutkan on 3 November prohibited the Justice Department and Homeland Security from sending states lists of voters deemed potentially ineligible or asking officials to segregate or withhold ballots. The ruling limits use of immigration-enforcement data in state-run elections on the eve of the midterm.
Washington notified Congress that South Africa and Rwanda will lose African Growth and Opportunity Act duty-free access from 1 January 2027, citing trade barriers, corruption and rights concerns. The decision ties trade preferences to political conduct.
The Justice Department sought emergency Supreme Court intervention on 2 November to stop California counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots that federal officials link to people they allege may not be US citizens, filed the day before the midterm.
Five NATO diplomats told POLITICO that European allies expect Donald Trump could respond to a Republican defeat in the 3 November midterm by pulling more US troops from Europe and stepping up attacks on the alliance.
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