Poll after Constitutional Tribunal crisis gives KO 27.2%, but right-wing bloc would reach 258 seats

Poll results

United Surveys by IBRiS, commissioned by Wirtualna Polska, interviewed 1000 adult Poles by computer-assisted telephone on 2 November 2026, two days after the dispute over the Constitutional Tribunal escalated on 30 and 31 October. The poll has a margin of error of 3%. Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) leads with 27.2%, down 2.5 points from the previous Wirtualna Polska survey. Law and Justice (PiS) stands at 18.2%, up 1 point, and Confederation at 13.3%, up 0.1 point. Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown reaches 11.6%, up 0.6 points.

New Left is at 7.1%, down 0.2 points, and Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus at 5.2%, down 1 point. Razem (3.8%, up 0.6 points) and the Polish People's Party PSL (2.9%, down 1.5 points) fall below the 5% threshold for entering the Sejm. Polska 2050 recorded no votes, down 0.4 points. Some 10.7% of respondents had no preference, up 2.3 points.

Civic Coalition27.2%

Law and Justice18.2%

Confederation13.3%

Confederation of the Polish Crown11.6%

New Left7.1%

Rozwój Plus5.2%

Razem3.8%

PSL2.9%

Polska 20500%

Civic Coalition

27.2 %

Law and Justice

18.2 %

Confederation

13.3 %

Confederation of the Polish Crown

11.6 %

New Left

7.1 %

Rozwój Plus

5.2 %

Razem

3.8 %

PSL

2.9 %

Polska 2050

0 %

Data from the article text

Seat projection

The poll results were converted into seats using a calculator developed by Prof. Jarosław Flis of the Jagiellonian University. In the 460-seat Sejm, Civic Coalition would take 172 seats, PiS 108, Confederation (Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość) 73, the Confederation of the Polish Crown 61, New Left 30 and Rozwój Plus 16. Civic Coalition and the Left together would hold 202 seats, short of the 231 needed for a majority. A right-wing bloc of PiS, Rozwój Plus and both Confederations would hold 258 seats, which on this projection would be enough to form a government. Reports on the poll also recalled that in June Jarosław Kaczyński had ruled out an arrangement with Braun, and that the two later posed together for a selfie outside the Tribunal.

Civic Coalition172

Law and Justice108

Confederation73

Confederation of the Polish Crown61

New Left30

Rozwój Plus16

Civic Coalition

172 seats

Law and Justice

108 seats

Confederation

73 seats

Confederation of the Polish Crown

61 seats

New Left

30 seats

Rozwój Plus

16 seats

Data from the article text

The Tribunal dispute

On Friday evening, 30 October, a statement appeared on the Tribunal's website announcing a break in the duties of its president, Bogdan Święczkowski. Anna Korwin-Piotrowska took over the running of the court. Police intervened in front of the building, and President Karol Nawrocki turned back from a trip to Senegal. Prosecutor General and Justice Minister Waldemar Żurek asked for the immunities of Święczkowski and vice-president Bartłomiej Sochański to be lifted. Both do not recognise Korwin-Piotrowska as the person directing the Tribunal.

On Monday, 2 November, Korwin-Piotrowska presented preliminary audit results showing 1171 pending cases, more than 700 of which had not been given any procedural step.

What comes next

On Tuesday, 3 November, the Tribunal's judges unanimously adopted the court's budget for 2027. The next general assembly of the judges is scheduled for Tuesday, 10 November, where a change to the court's organisational rules is on the agenda. The poll was taken on 2 November and therefore predates both the budget vote and that assembly. The Tribunal dispute, the audit findings and the seat arithmetic will all be tested by the assembly's outcome, since its decision sets the rules under which the court operates.