KO leads new OGB poll at 35.9%, PiS second, Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus at 3.6%

Civic Coalition keeps the lead

The latest OGB survey, carried out for Stan360 and published on Thursday, 15 October, gives Civic Coalition (KO) 35.9% support, with Polsat News citing 35.91%. That is down 0.6 points from the September survey. Law and Justice (PiS) stands second on 25%, up 2.4 points, so the gap between the two largest parties has narrowed. Polsat News puts that gap at almost 11 points, while Rzeczpospolita puts it at 10. The sample was 2,000 adults.

The fight on the right

Konfederacja, whose leaders are Krzysztof Bosak and Sławomir Mentzen, fell 2.1 points to 11.8%. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, led by Grzegorz Braun, rose 1.9 points to 11.3%, which leaves the two parties 0.5 points apart. Rzeczpospolita's headline said Braun had caught up with Mentzen and Bosak, and Polsat News described a contest for the podium. Nowa Lewica is at 6.1%, down 0.8 points, a level that would still take it into the Sejm.

Rozwój Plus below the threshold

Rozwój Plus, the association of former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki that is due to become a full political party, polled 3.6% (3.63% per Polsat News and Rzeczpospolita). naTemat reports that it stood at 5.1% a month earlier, and wPolityce puts the loss at 1.5 points. On these figures the group would fall outside the Sejm, below the 5% threshold. Three other parties also sit under the threshold: Razem at 2.75%, PSL at 2.16% and Polska 2050 at 1.29%. Rzeczpospolita also noted that Rozwój Plus alone clears the 3% level that guarantees budget funding.

Seat projection

Polsat News translates the shares into seats: 202 for KO, 139 for PiS, 55 for Konfederacja, 51 for Konfederacja Korony Polskiej and 13 for Nowa Lewica.

Polsat News describes Konfederacja Korony Polskiej as closing in on Konfederacja, which would hold 55 seats to its 51. The outlet totals KO and Nowa Lewica together at 215 seats, and the parties on the right at 245. On those numbers the ruling coalition would not win a majority. The seat figures come only from the Polsat News report.

Survey details and caveats

The poll was run by the Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza. wPolityce gives fieldwork dates of 11 to 13 October 2026 for a sample of 2,000 adults. Rzeczpospolita gives the fieldwork period as 1 to 13 October for the same 2,000 respondents, so the two sources disagree on the start date. Polsat News reports the KO figure to two decimals, 35.91%, while other outlets round it to 35.9%. All changes are measured against the September wave of the same survey.