Ipsos poll gives KO 34%, but PiS and two Confederation parties would reach 241 seats

Party standings in the Ipsos poll

An Ipsos survey commissioned by TVP Info and the '19:30' programme, carried out by CATI/CAVI on 21-22 October among 1000 adult Poles in a nationwide representative sample, puts Koalicja Obywatelska first with 34% support. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość follows on 26%, eight points behind, while Konfederacja stands at 10%. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, led by Grzegorz Braun, has 8%, Nowa Lewica 6% and the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 5%. Razem and Rozwój Plus, the latter led by Mateusz Morawiecki, each have 4%, which is below the seat threshold. Polska 2050 has 1%, as does the option 'another party'.

Rzeczpospolita notes that the 4% for Razem and Rozwój Plus still clears the 3% level that guarantees state budget funding for a party, even though it brings no seats. Polska 2050, which currently sits in the governing coalition, polls at 1%.

Koalicja Obywatelska34%

PiS26%

Konfederacja10%

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej8%

Nowa Lewica6%

PSL5%

Razem4%

Rozwój Plus4%

Polska 20501%

Other party1%

Koalicja Obywatelska

34 %

PiS

26 %

Konfederacja

10 %

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

8 %

Nowa Lewica

6 %

PSL

5 %

Razem

4 %

Rozwój Plus

4 %

Polska 2050

1 %

Other party

1 %

Data from the article text

Seat projection and possible majorities

Translating the vote into seats, the simulation gives Koalicja Obywatelska 196 of the 460 seats, PiS 157, Konfederacja 48, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 36, Nowa Lewica 18 and PSL 5. An absolute majority requires 231 seats. The current governing trio of Koalicja Obywatelska, Nowa Lewica and PSL would hold 219 seats, short of that line. A right-wing combination of PiS, Konfederacja and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej would reach 241, a level Rzeczpospolita describes as close to what the current governing coalition holds in the present Sejm. A pairing of Koalicja Obywatelska with Konfederacja would reach 244, while Rzeczpospolita calls the other arithmetically possible coalitions politically unrealistic.

Koalicja Obywatelska196

PiS157

Konfederacja48

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej36

Nowa Lewica18

PSL5

Koalicja Obywatelska

196 seats

PiS

157 seats

Konfederacja

48 seats

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

36 seats

Nowa Lewica

18 seats

PSL

5 seats

Data from the article text

Turnout intentions

Sixty-one percent of respondents said they would take part in a parliamentary vote held on the nearest Sunday, with 48% answering 'definitely yes' and 13% 'rather yes'. On the other side, 15% answered 'rather no' and 16% 'definitely no'. Eight percent said they did not know. The question asked whether respondents would vote if parliamentary elections were held on that nearest Sunday, so the figures measure stated intention rather than actual turnout.

Definitely yes48%

Rather yes13%

Rather no15%

Definitely no16%

Don't know8%

Definitely yes

48 %

Rather yes

13 %

Rather no

15 %

Definitely no

16 %

Don't know

8 %

Data from the article text

An earlier Social Changes survey

WPolityce points to a September survey by Social Changes, carried out by CATI for wPolsce24 and wPolityce.pl on 18-19 September with 1095 respondents, which left out undecided answers. That poll gave the party of Donald Tusk 30.7% of decided voters and PiS 26.4%. It projected five parties entering the Sejm and found that the ruling coalition would also fail to reach a majority. Wpolityce presents the October Ipsos result as showing a similar trend, though the two surveys differ in pollster, sample size, timing and treatment of undecided voters.