EU enlargement report: Montenegro nears accession end, Ukraine lags behind Moldova

Montenegro closest to the finish line

The European Commission published its annual enlargement package on Wednesday, 4 November, and it places Montenegro closest to the end of the accession process. Montenegro has provisionally closed 21 negotiating chapters, and the Commission says it could close the remaining ones by the end of the year if member states agree. Work on the accession treaty confirms that Montenegro is near the final phase of its process. Bloomberg reports that the bloc's executive arm expects Montenegro to join in 2028, a timetable that could restart expansion. The Commission also says that at the current pace Montenegro could be ready to sign the accession treaty as soon as June 2027.

Albania and Serbia

Albania has opened its last outstanding cluster and met interim benchmarks on rule-of-law chapters, which paves the way for provisionally closing four chapters. The Commission calls its goal of concluding talks in 2027 ambitious but achievable, and says it requires sustained reform momentum and inclusive political dialogue. That call comes as anti-government protests continue across the country, and the Commission refers to the broad civic mobilisation since the start of Albania's democratic transition. Serbia has not made substantial progress in the negotiations, the report says, and the Commission points to a drift away from the values underpinning its European path. It also notes that recent parliamentary elections gave the new government a strong mandate for reforms.

Moldova and Ukraine on separate tracks

A Commission roadmap for Moldova, reported by Deutsche Welle, says Chisinau could close 25 of the 35 negotiating chapters during 2027. A preliminary document obtained by Politico puts Moldova's potential at more than 20 chapters, against seven policy areas for Ukraine in 2027. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said her country must advance at its own pace and that blocking its European path would not help Ukraine.

“We want the opening of the last two clusters, for which, according to the European Commission, both countries are technically ready.”

Sandu also said she understood that Hungary is discussing bilateral issues with the Ukrainian government, and she hoped all member states would take a favourable decision for both countries in the coming months.

Ukraine's timeline and the 2030 question

Ukraine filed its EU membership application on 28 February 2022, four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Moldova and Ukraine received candidate status together in June 2022 and formally opened accession negotiations on the same day in June 2024.

The Commission says Ukraine opened four clusters over the past year and met the conditions for opening all remaining clusters. Its stated aim is to conclude negotiations by the end of 2028. A document obtained by Politico, however, sets limited goals for 2027 and contains no commitment to an accession date.

That document calls on Kyiv to accelerate rule-of-law reforms urgently and substantially, and makes meeting key requirements in the first half of 2027 a condition for provisionally closing talks in some chapters. Open notes that the Commission also expects progress on national minorities, the Hungarian minority in particular.

Open reports that a senior EU official called the projection a merit-based assessment, not a negative judgment on Ukraine. Open argues that accession before 2030 is practically unthinkable, since drafting, signing and ratifying the treaty after talks end takes at least a year, and that Zelensky, who long sought a fast track, is unlikely to be pleased.