Polish poll puts Tusk coalition at 220 seats as right-wing parties reach 240

Polling results and threshold casualties

A political survey conducted by United Surveys by IBRiS for Wirtualna Polska between 2 and 4 October 2026 shows Koalicja Obywatelska leading voter intentions at 30.6%. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość occupies second place with 18.0%, followed by Konfederacja led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak at 14.1%. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, headed by Grzegorz Braun, records 9.0%, while Lewica receives 7.4% and Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus crosses the threshold at 5.7%. Three political formations remain below the 5% parliamentary threshold: Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe at 4.4%, Partia Razem at 3.9%, and Polska 2050 at 0.5%. Undecided voters represent 6.4% of the representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles polled through computer-assisted telephone and web interviews.

Projected distribution of Sejm seats

A parliamentary seat simulation prepared for Wirtualna Polska using the approximation method of Professor Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University translates these results into Sejm seats. Under this calculation, Koalicja Obywatelska secures 190 seats in the 460-seat lower house, while Prawo i Sprawiedliwość obtains 103 seats, an increase of eight seats compared to late September. Konfederacja achieves the largest expansion by securing 77 seats, representing a gain of 11 seats over the previous simulation. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej claims 41 seats, Lewica holds 30 seats, and Rozwój Plus enters parliament with 19 seats. Together, Koalicja Obywatelska and Lewica command 220 seats, leaving the governing bloc 11 seats short of the 231-seat absolute majority.

Right-wing bloc arithmetic and political hurdles

The four right-of-centre and right-wing formations in the projection (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, Konfederacja, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, and Rozwój Plus) collectively total 240 seats. That sum gives the right-wing bloc a nine-seat advantage over the 231-seat threshold, but deep political divisions separate the four groups. Jarosław Kaczyński has repeatedly rejected cooperation with Grzegorz Braun and maintains a contentious relationship with the defectors who formed Rozwój Plus. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość also competes directly with Morawiecki's party for conservative voters, even as Rozwój Plus improved its standing from 5.3% in September to 5.7% in October.

Coalition dynamics and path to 2027

The findings contrast with polling conducted between 18 and 20 September, when Koalicja Obywatelska and Lewica commanded exactly 231 seats. In the October measurement, Koalicja Obywatelska declined by 0.9 percentage points and Lewica fell by 1.4 percentage points, whereas Prawo i Sprawiedliwość rose by 0.8 percentage points and Konfederacja gained 1.2 percentage points. Because current coalition partners Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe and Polska 2050 fail to reach the 5% threshold, the governing coalition established after the 15 October 2023 elections cannot retain power in its current parliamentary structure. In response to coalition fragmentation, Prime Minister Donald Tusk previously urged coalition partners during leadership meetings to establish a single joint electoral list ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn 2027.