AfD returns to 28% in German poll, opening record seven-point gap with CDU/CSU as Merz's rating hits 14%

The Alternative für Deutschland has returned to its strongest-ever standing in Forsa's weekly RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, reaching 28% and establishing the largest lead over the Christian Democrats measured in the series.

The top-line numbers

The AfD gained one percentage point compared to the previous week, while CDU/CSU fell by one point to 21%, yielding a seven-point gap. The 28% figure was last recorded in mid-May. The Union's 21% is its lowest in the Trendbarometer since the February 2025 federal election, though it had already touched that level twice in June.

AfD28%

CDU/CSU21%

Grüne16%

Linke12%

SPD12%

FDP4%

Sonstige7%

AfD

28 %

CDU/CSU

21 %

Grüne

16 %

Linke

12 %

SPD

12 %

FDP

4 %

Sonstige

7 %

Data from the article text

The Greens held steady at 16%, in third place, continuing a slow upward trend from their 11.6% general-election result. Both the Left party and the SPD registered 12%, the Left having lost the one-point advantage it had last week. The SPD has now sat at least four points below its historically weak election result of 16.4% since March. The FDP remained at 4%, below the 5% threshold for nearly two straight months. The Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) is no longer listed separately because its support has fallen under 3%, within the survey's 2.5-point margin of error. Smaller parties together account for 7%. The share of non-voters and undecided respondents stands at 27%, well above the 17.9% non-voter share at the 2025 election.

Merz at a new personal low

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's satisfaction score fell one point to just 14%, while dissatisfaction rose two points to 85%. Among CDU/CSU supporters, 48% are satisfied with his work and 50% are not. Only 19% of SPD backers express satisfaction.

A separate Forsa survey for Stern and RTL asked whether the Union would get more support with a different chancellor: 43% of all respondents said yes, 51% said no. Within the Union's own camp the picture was split, with 46% seeing a switch as advantageous and 48% disagreeing. Der Tagesspiegel noted that the chancellor's recent cabinet and party personnel reshuffle, and the intra-party criticism of his communication style over the moves, may have played a role in the latest slide.

Competence vacuum

When asked which party is best equipped to tackle the country's problems, 56% of respondents said they trust none of them, an increase of three points from the week before. The AfD leads on this question at 14% (down one point), followed by the CDU/CSU at 12% (also down one). The Greens and Left each poll at 6%, unchanged, while the SPD fell one point to 4%. Forsa's data shows no party generating broad confidence in its problem-solving ability.

Economic gloom

Expectations for the economy have turned darker still. Fully 73% of those polled believe conditions will worsen, two points more than the previous week. Only 11% anticipate an improvement. Forsa described the economic outlook as the most pessimistic it has recorded so far this year.

Forsa surveyed 2,501 people between 28 July and 3 August on behalf of RTL Deutschland. The statistical margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.