Poll standings

Bild am Sonntag reported on Saturday, 17 October 2026, the latest INSA Sonntagstrend survey, which was carried out from 12 to 16 October among 1,206 eligible voters. The AfD lost one point and stands at 29 percent, still well ahead of the CDU/CSU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which fell one point to 18 percent. The Greens held at 14 percent and the SPD at 13 percent, while the Left gained one point to 11 percent and the BSW rose one point to 4 percent. The FDP stayed at 4 percent, and other parties were listed at 7 percent. The poll carries a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

AfD29%

CDU/CSU18%

Greens14%

SPD13%

Left11%

BSW4%

FDP4%

Other parties7%

AfD

29 %

CDU/CSU

18 %

Greens

14 %

SPD

13 %

Left

11 %

BSW

4 %

FDP

4 %

Other parties

7 %

Data from the article text

Union and SPD far from a majority

INSA chief Hermann Binkert said the two former mainstream parties, the Union and the SPD, are now far from a parliamentary majority. Since the 2025 federal election, he said, they have lost almost a third of their voters. Black-red, the CDU/CSU and SPD coalition, would reach only 31 percent in the survey. Because the Union rules out working with both the AfD and the Left, Binkert considered a Kenya coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens the most likely government option. That combination would reach 45 percent, which, because votes for parties below the five percent threshold are discarded, would be enough for a majority in parliament.

Black-red (CDU/CSU and SPD)31%

Kenya (CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens)45%

Black-red (CDU/CSU and SPD)

31 %

Kenya (CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens)

45 %

Data from the article text

The Left and the BSW

The Left is currently at the centre of the political debate, both over exploratory talks in Berlin and over how the party has handled antisemitism. Its gain of one point brought it to 11 percent in the survey. The BSW also gained one point, reaching 4 percent, but would still miss entry into the Bundestag. The FDP remained at 4 percent in the same poll.

North Rhine-Westphalia

A separate INSA poll for Bild puts the CDU in North Rhine-Westphalia at 26 percent, eight points below its level from half a year earlier. The AfD rose four points to 21 percent in that state survey, while the SPD stands at 18 percent and the Greens at 16 percent. Together the CDU and the Greens would reach only 42 percent. The poll was published a good half year before the state election.

Method and timing

INSA surveyed 1,206 eligible voters between 12 and 16 October, and the national results were published on Saturday, 17 October 2026. Each change in the national figures is measured against the previous week's values, which is why the movements are given in whole points. In an earlier INSA survey, the AfD had crossed 30 percent nationally for the first time. The coalition numbers describe hypothetical combinations of the parties' current shares rather than any agreed government.