Hesse CDU drops to 25% in poll, lowest ever, with AfD just two points behind

Poll numbers

The hr-Hessentrend, fielded by Infratest Dimap between 19 and 22 October, puts the CDU of Minister-President Boris Rhein at 25 percent, its lowest reading in the poll's history. That is seven points below the February survey, and the party now sits only two points ahead of the AfD, which gained three points to 23 percent. Hessischer Rundfunk says the survey reached 1,185 eligible voters, 695 by telephone and 490 online, and that the result is representative. The Greens rose two points to 16 percent and overtook the SPD, which slipped one point to 15 percent. The Left would return to the state parliament at 7 percent, while the FDP stays at 4 percent, below the 5 percent threshold.

CDU25%

AfD23%

Greens16%

SPD15%

Left7%

FDP4%

CDU

25 %

AfD

23 %

Greens

16 %

SPD

15 %

Left

7 %

FDP

4 %

Data from the article text

A record low measured against the past

The CDU won 34.6 percent at the 2023 state election, and the SPD took 15.1 percent. In summer 2025 the CDU still stood at 36 percent in the same poll series. Hesse has been governed by the CDU for 27 years, and the current CDU-SPD coalition has been in office since 2024. With the SPD at 15 percent, that coalition no longer has a parliamentary majority. The only two-party option on the arithmetic is a CDU-AfD pairing, which the CDU rules out, while a coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens is theoretically possible.

Landtag election 202334.6%

Summer 2025 poll36%

October 2026 poll25%

Landtag election 2023

34.6 %

Summer 2025 poll

36 %

October 2026 poll

25 %

Data from the article text

Satisfaction and competence

54 percent of respondents are less satisfied or dissatisfied with the state government's work, while 38 percent rate it positively, nine points fewer than in February. In February approval and disapproval had roughly balanced out. The CDU still leads on problem-solving competence with 21 percent, six points down from February, ahead of the AfD on 16 percent. A third of respondents now trust no party to solve the pressing problems, an increase of eight points.

Party reactions

CDU general secretary Leopold Born places the blame for the losses in Berlin, pointing to the federal government. He conceded that 25 percent is not a level the party can be content with, while noting that the CDU remains the strongest force in state politics.

“The federal trend does not pass Hesse without leaving a mark.”

The party headquarters in Wiesbaden also notes that the federal CDU sits five points lower in the ARD Deutschlandtrend, which it credits to Rhein and his coalition. Born reads the figures as confirmation of Rhein's recent course toward the AfD, which he describes as an effort to build bridges to the political center.

The AfD and the firewall debate

The AfD reads the same numbers differently. Its state leaders Robert Lambrou and Andreas Lichert said together:

“This is almost the tipping point at which the AfD becomes the strongest party in Hesse too.”

The AfD sees one main reason for the CDU's decline in its refusal to cooperate with the party, arguing that centre-right voters keep receiving left-leaning policy. In the poll, a majority does not reject cooperation with the AfD in principle. A good third would decide case by case, a further quarter wants cooperation pursued, and a good third rejects both. Rhein has argued that the AfD should not be denied the committee chair posts it is entitled to in the Bundestag, calls the image of a "Brandmauer" wrong and opposes proceedings to ban the party. Rhein had earlier opposed planned tax rises on alcohol, tobacco and sugar, yet the slump reaches the state level too, with North Rhine-Westphalia's Hendrik Wüst down from 35 percent at the start of the year to between 26 and 29 percent and Daniel Günther in Schleswig-Holstein below 30 percent.