Morning Brief, Sunday 5 July

Iran opened week-long funeral rites for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, drawing crowds to the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla and placing his coffin beside those of four family members killed in the same February airstrike. Authorities closed streets and airspace, while the health ministry estimated that about 15m people would attend ceremonies across the country. Tehran’s metro carried more than 2.2m passengers on the first day by mid-afternoon, a small logistical miracle with political uses.

The funeral also froze diplomacy. Washington and Tehran agreed to suspend negotiations for a week, with the next round expected on July 11 in Pakistan. Donald Trump said he was surprised by the public grief and suggested, with the delicacy of a man holding matches in a petrol station, that all Iranian leaders had gathered in one place. He also said he would not order a strike because there would be no one left to negotiate with.

Succession still looks brittle. Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father, has not appeared publicly since being wounded in February, and security officials reportedly fear any appearance at the burial could expose him to attack or reveal his hiding place. A funeral meant to project continuity instead shows a regime trying to mourn, negotiate and protect its new leader at the same time. The burial will measure not only Iran’s grief, but how much authority Mojtaba Khamenei can exercise from the shadows.

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin spoke for 85 minutes before NATO leaders gather in Ankara, and the Kremlin said they discussed Ukraine, Iran and the Gulf. Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin’s foreign-policy adviser, said the Russian president described his forces as advancing confidently, while Trump said he was ready to work for a swift end to the war. Trump also reportedly spoke with Volodymyr Zelensky, setting up a summit week where every call arrives with a bill attached.

At NATO, that bill starts at 5% of GDP. Allies agreed last year to reach that target by 2035, split between military spending and security-related infrastructure, but Spain secured an opt-out and now faces Washington’s irritation. Mark Rutte has tried to flatter Trump back into the tent, branding extra allied spending since 2017 as “The Trump Trillion” and promising a defence-industrial push in Ankara.

The Middle East will crowd the agenda too. Trump said Benjamin Netanyahu had requested a White House meeting and could come soon, but the planned visit sits atop strain over Iran and Lebanon. Trump has publicly insisted that the Israeli prime minister “knows who the boss is”, while some advisers blame Benjamin Netanyahu for poor calls during the Iran war.

Ukraine adds the hardest test. Moscow claimed control of Kostiantynivka, a key Donetsk city, while Kyiv rejected the claim and said fighting continued. NATO’s Ankara meeting will show whether Trump’s diplomacy can align allies, or merely place every dispute in the same crowded room.

The United States marked 250 years of independence with rival celebrations rather than a single national party. Donald Trump’s Freedom 250 operation staged a fenced-off fair on the National Mall, military flyovers and an evening rally, while the congressionally chartered America250 group tried to keep its events nonpartisan. A severe eastern heatwave cancelled Washington’s traditional parade and briefly closed the fair, but Trump pressed on with his rally plans.

The anniversary also launched Trump Accounts, a baby-bond programme created by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The scheme gives a $1,000 government-funded investment account to every US citizen born between January 1st 2025 and December 31st 2028, while families can open accounts for other children under 18. Treasury officials said more than 6m accounts had already been requested, with 1.4m eligible for the seed payment and 86% of signups coming from families earning less than $200,000.

The politics are obvious. Republicans hope the accounts soften cost-of-living anger before November’s midterms, while critics warn that the tax and investment structure could widen wealth gaps over time. The administration also unveiled dollar bills featuring Trump’s signature, which rather clarified the intended theme. America’s birthday produced fireworks, savings accounts and a presidential watermark, but not much shared civic air.

Southern France returned to orange heatwave vigilance only two days after the previous alert was lifted. Météo-France placed seven departments under warning for Sunday, with temperatures forecast at 35-37°C and local peaks of 40°C. Nighttime lows are expected to stay above 21°C in many places, denying bodies and buildings the cooling break that usually makes summer bearable.

Fire crews fought several blazes across the south. A truck on the A9 motorway started a fire near Rochefort-du-Gard that burned 40 hectares in three hours, while another blaze in Aude had consumed nearly 900 hectares before being contained. In Drôme, 218 firefighters worked in remote mountain terrain where at least 115 hectares had burned. Portugal, meanwhile, entered its fifth heatwave of the year, with 40-43°C forecast in the Tejo Valley and Alentejo.

The human toll extends beyond heatstroke. France reported 55 drownings since the heatwave began on June 18, with officials saying many happened in unsupervised or prohibited bathing areas. Santé publique France also reported a 29.1% rise in deaths nationally during the week of June 22, equal to 2,025 excess deaths from the previous week, and warned that the figure was probably understated.

Scientists warn that the Mediterranean basin is heating about 20% faster than the global average, while sea-surface temperatures have risen 1.3-1.5°C since the 1980s. Europe’s summer is no longer just hot; it is becoming a rolling stress test for grids, hospitals, forests and common sense.

Germany’s Alternative for Germany re-elected Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla as co-leaders at its Erfurt congress, despite mass protests that tried to block delegates from reaching the venue. Police estimated the crowd at up to 31,000, while organisers claimed 50,000. Demonstrators blocked roads, staged sit-ins and even abseiled from a motorway bridge, but most of the roughly 600 delegates arrived early by escorted buses and the meeting opened on time.

Weidel won 81% of the delegate vote and Chrupalla 70%, extending a partnership that began in 2022. The party says it now has 75,000 members, about 25,000 more than last year, and has set a target of 100,000. Polls put AfD around 27-29%, ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU at about 22%, and the party hopes to enter state government for the first time after elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

The congress carried heavy historical baggage. It fell exactly 100 years after the first Nazi party congress in nearby Weimar, and the director of the Buchenwald memorial said the timing and location were not accidental. Police reported fewer than 100 offences and described the atmosphere as largely peaceful, though two journalists were injured and treated in hospital.

Germany’s “firewall” against cooperation with the far right still stands, but AfD’s polling lead makes that barrier feel less like a wall and more like a dam under rising water.

Venezuela’s confirmed death toll from the June 24 twin earthquakes rose to 2,954 on Saturday, while the number of injured climbed to 16,592. More than 16,000 people lost their homes, and the United Nations estimates that up to 50,000 people may still be missing. The government has not released its own missing-person figure, which leaves families searching through rumour as well as rubble.

Rescuers still worked through collapsed buildings, but the chance of finding survivors has narrowed sharply. Nearly 30,000 officials and 3,281 international rescue workers were deployed, though some foreign teams are preparing to leave. A man pulled alive from debris after eight days offered a rare burst of hope, but the operation has largely shifted toward recovery and identification.

Interim President Delcy Rodríguez pledged to identify every victim and said forensic teams were photographing and fingerprinting bodies. The government set up a $200m reconstruction fund using money released by the IMF and opened a separate account at the Latin American Development Bank for international donations. Since the initial 7.2 and 7.5 magnitude quakes, which struck 39 seconds apart, officials have recorded 862 aftershocks.

La Guaira, the coastal state near Caracas, suffered the worst damage, with apartment blocks reduced to dust and survivors sleeping in parks or makeshift shelters. Disasters often expose the difference between a state on paper and a state in practice; Venezuela now has to prove it can bury the dead, house the living and keep panic from doing the aftershocks’ work.