Evening Brief, Sunday 5 July

Millions of Iranians filled Tehran's Grand Mosalla mosque for the second day of funeral rites for Ali Khamenei, who was killed with four family members in a US-Israeli airstrike in February. Authorities displayed the coffins under glass, registered more than 7.1 million metro trips over 24 hours, and hosted representatives from more than 70 countries, turning a delayed burial into a state performance of endurance and defiance.

The crowd chanted against the United States and Israel, and poet Mohammad Rasouli urged violence against Donald Trump from the stage. Donald Trump told Axios he doubted the sincerity of some mourners, while also saying talks would resume after funeral week, a reminder that even fury now has a diplomatic timetable.

The more telling absence was Mojtaba Khamenei. Three of Ali Khamenei's sons attended prayers, but the designated successor stayed out of sight, reportedly because officials fear another Israeli strike and because he has not appeared publicly since being injured in the February attack. The procession now moves to Qom, Najaf, Karbala and Mashhad, where Mojtaba Khamenei may yet appear at the burial.

The funeral is not just a burial; it is a succession screen, and every empty chair in Tehran now carries strategic meaning.

Donald Trump held separate calls with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the 250th anniversary of US independence, then pointed both conversations toward the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7-8. The Kremlin said the call with Vladimir Putin lasted 85 minutes and covered Ukraine, Iran and the Gulf, while Volodymyr Zelenskyy described his conversation with Donald Trump as fruitful and tied further talks to the summit.

The diplomatic movement came with battlefield narratives moving in opposite directions. Russian officials claimed advances and control over contested areas, while Ukrainian officials denied some of those claims; both sides are shaping the room before Donald Trump meets allies who want clarity on American pressure, weapons and spending.

Turkey also tightened the atmosphere before leaders arrive. Authorities detained journalists, activists, academics and opposition figures in raids that officials framed as counter-terrorism operations, while critics said the state was clearing protest from the streets before NATO's cameras arrive.

Washington is keeping every line open, but allies will judge the exercise by where pressure lands: on Moscow, on Kyiv, or on them.

Super Typhoon Bavi moved toward Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands with sustained winds measured around 260 km/h and gusts reported above 315 km/h, strong enough to match a Category 5 hurricane. Guam opened five school evacuation centres, one of which filled quickly, while FEMA staged 1.1 million litres of water, 1.2 million meals, 6,700 cots and 90 generators on an island still recovering from an April super typhoon.

In southern France, a wildfire near Trévillach burned 1,350 hectares and regained force as Tramontane winds rose, forcing about 700 firefighters and aircraft to work across difficult terrain. France also placed seven southern departments under orange heatwave vigilance, with temperatures forecast up to 40°C, while earlier fires in the Aude, Drôme and Gard stretched crews across the south.

Greece fought its own version of the same pattern. A fire near Thessaloniki entered an industrial zone, set a recycling plant and oil-treatment facility alight, and sent black smoke over the city, while authorities ordered evacuations and warned residents to keep windows closed.

These are not isolated bad days; hotter seas, dry vegetation and crowded infrastructure are turning weather warnings into logistics tests.

Venezuela's earthquake emergency moved into a grim second phase as international rescue teams began withdrawing eleven days after twin quakes hit La Guaira and Caracas. Officials put the death toll at 2,954, with 16,592 injured, 16,309 homeless and more than 800 buildings affected, including 190 that collapsed completely.

Foreign brigades from the United States, Chile and other countries prepared to leave as the survival window narrowed, though rescuers had pulled one man alive from rubble after eight days. The government said 6,462 people had been rescued and nearly 30,000 officials had deployed alongside 3,281 international workers, but survivors continued to complain that machinery and crews arrived too slowly in the first critical hours.

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced a reconstruction programme called Gran Misión Venezuela Renace, promised six months of allowances for the worst-hit families, and urged the suspension of sanctions so Caracas can access blocked resources. Spain confirmed 35 nationals dead and 140 missing, and the UN estimated economic losses at $6.7 billion, equal to about 6% of Venezuela's GDP.

The earthquake has shifted from rescue drama to a test of state capacity, and Caracas is already bargaining over the bill.

OPEC+ ministers from seven core countries agreed to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day from August, the fifth consecutive monthly increase as the group unwinds voluntary cuts first announced in 2023. The decision followed the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, where flows have exceeded 10 million barrels per day after Washington and Tehran signed a 60-day maritime-traffic understanding in June.

The increase looks larger on paper than at sea. OPEC data show output fell from 42.77 million barrels per day in February to 33.13 million in May during the war disruption, and analysts expect idled production to take time to restart even as quotas rise.

Oil markets have already priced in much of the relief. Brent traded near $72 a barrel on Friday, far below wartime peaks above $120, helped by weaker Chinese imports, non-Middle East exports and a record strategic stock release. OPEC+ said the adjustment could still be accelerated, suspended or reversed, a careful way of saying producers want lower fear without losing control.

Cheapening oil gives consumers a breather, but the cartel's real problem is timing: enough supply to calm inflation, not so much that it floods its own recovery.

Donald Trump used America's 250th Independence Day celebration on the National Mall to press Congress to pass the Save America Act, which would require voter identification and proof of citizenship while limiting mail-in voting. A storm forced an evacuation and delayed the speech until about 11pm, after which Donald Trump spoke to a smaller but loyal crowd before record fireworks lit Washington.

The day mixed patriotic ritual with campaign cadence. Donald Trump hailed military history, praised this year's war performance against Iran, introduced the Artemis II crew, and framed domestic opponents as ideological threats, while World Cup matches in Philadelphia and Houston folded the anniversary into their pregame shows.

The spectacle also drew darker company. About 400 masked members of Patriot Front marched near the US Capitol, chanted "Reclaim America" and carried Confederate flags before dispersing in Maryland, inserting white-nationalist theatre into a day designed for civic unity.

The fireworks were planned as a birthday candle for the republic; the politics around them showed how fiercely Americans now argue over who gets to claim the cake.