Morning Brief, Saturday 4 July

Iran began week-long funeral rites for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, displaying the coffin of the 86-year-old supreme leader and four family members at the Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla. Authorities expect 15-20 million people to enter the capital during three days of official mourning before processions move through Qom, Najaf, Karbala and Mashhad, a route built to project religious reach as much as grief. Nearly 100 countries are sending delegations, while European states that backed the war were not invited.

The choreography masks a brittle moment. American officials reportedly warned Iran, through regional governments, that Israel might try to kill Iranian negotiators during peace talks, including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi. The leaks suggest Washington now treats those men as necessary channels, while Israel still appears focused on regime change. That split matters because Tehran is mourning a leader killed in a US and Israeli strike, even as it negotiates with Washington over a more durable settlement.

France added another signal of guarded de-escalation. Emmanuel Macron ordered the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier home after the June 17 US-Iran memorandum, but left minehunters, frigates and a patrol aircraft deployed for work in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping still treats the waterway as a war zone, and US intelligence estimates Iran may hold thousands of mines. A funeral staged as unity may instead measure how much authority Iran’s new leadership can still command under a ceasefire it cannot fully trust.

France counted 2,025 excess deaths during the week of June 22-28 after the country recorded its hottest June on record. Santé publique France said mortality rose by 29.1% from the previous week, and warned that the toll is likely understated because electronic certificates capture only part of all deaths. Home deaths jumped especially sharply, a grim reminder that heat often kills people who do not reach hospitals.

The heat is not pausing at the border. Spain’s weather agency warned that a second summer heatwave will grip the country from Sunday and could push temperatures above 42°C in the Ebro valley, Extremadura and Andalusia. Nights will bring little relief in the south and along the Mediterranean, while fire danger will rise as dry thunderstorms and strong gusts move in. The previous Spanish heatwave was linked to around 1,000 excess deaths, which makes this forecast feel less like inconvenience and more like a public-health drill.

Portugal activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism and asked Spain and Morocco for firefighting aircraft as temperatures reached 44°C and wildfires spread across the country. The Vouzela blaze alone had consumed an estimated 10,000 hectares by Friday evening, while more than 2,800 personnel, 864 vehicles and 32 aircraft fought six active fires nationwide. France also faced early fires in the south, forcing evacuations and stretching crews a month before the usual seasonal peak.

The World Meteorological Organization then widened the frame, warning that El Niño is already present and should strengthen rapidly by September. Europe is learning that adaptation is no longer a slogan for conferences, but a roster of ambulances, cooling units, firefighters and neighbors checking on neighbors.

Mercedes-Benz workers staged protests across Germany after management proposed raising the working week from 35 to 40 hours without extra pay. IG Metall put turnout above 33,000, while the company estimated roughly 16,000, but both figures showed that anger had spread from Sindelfingen to Stuttgart-Untertürkheim, Bremen, Berlin, Hamburg, Düsseldorf and Ludwigsfelde. The board had told staff it must keep cutting costs and make working hours cheaper, while postponing a July bonus for about 90,000 of its 108,000 German employees.

The dispute lands in an industry already shedding weight. Mercedes-Benz reported a 17% fall in first-quarter profit to €1.43bn, blaming a difficult Chinese market. Volkswagen is reportedly considering up to 100,000 global job cuts and four German plant closures, while EY says Germany’s auto sector lost nearly 50,000 jobs last year and 111,000 since 2019. IG Metall now promises similar actions at other carmakers and suppliers, which gives the row the feel of an opening skirmish rather than a one-site labour dispute.

Berlin is trying to soften the broader economic landing with borrowed money. Lars Klingbeil’s draft 2027 budget plans €203.7bn in new borrowing, including big outlays for defence, infrastructure and climate neutrality, while interest costs climb to €41.9bn. The state can borrow to rebuild capacity, but it cannot by itself decide how many hours German workers should donate to preserve old margins. Germany’s old bargain, shorter hours for industrial peace and export strength, is now being repriced at the factory gate.

Venezuela’s earthquake toll rose to 2,645 confirmed deaths after twin quakes devastated La Guaira and parts of Caracas. Authorities reported 12,666 injured, 15,050 displaced and 189 buildings completely collapsed, while rescue teams kept digging more than a week after the disaster. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez rejected criticism that crews arrived late, even as residents said they had searched rubble with bare hands during the first 48 hours.

The crisis also collided with Venezuela’s stalled transition. María Corina Machado tried to return from exile, first via Curaçao and then Panama, but the trip collapsed after Washington signalled it did not support the move and airlines balked at the risk of reprisals. President Donald Trump said relations with interim president Delcy Rodríguez were excellent, while US officials argued that disaster relief should come before sensitive political moves. Machado rejected that logic and said her presence would help organise a transition after the catastrophe.

The human stakes keep breaking through the political noise. Former baseball player Eliézer Alfonzo searched the ruins of a hotel for his wife and teenage daughter, drawing hope from the discovery of the family puppy alive in the debris. In another country, that would be a rescue story; in Venezuela it has become a measure of trust in institutions that many citizens already doubt. The disaster has turned an argument over succession into a test of whether a weakened state can still find its citizens before politics finds them first.

Poland received repeated American warnings that Russia may be weighing a limited armed provocation on Polish territory or elsewhere on NATO’s eastern flank. Reported scenarios include drone strikes on critical infrastructure, simulated air attacks and border incidents staged from Kaliningrad or Belarus. Donald Tusk did not play down the risk, but he also tried not to hand Moscow a panic dividend.

That warning comes as Washington argues with itself over Europe. Marco Rubio blocked Pete Hegseth’s planned announcement of further US troop cuts in Europe, judging it premature before allies had been briefed. The Pentagon has already withdrawn about 5,000 soldiers from Germany, suspended an armoured brigade rotation into Poland and pulled an infantry brigade from Romania, steps that rattled eastern-flank governments. The six-month posture review now leaves allies waiting for the next American number, which is rarely a comfortable position.

The money fight is just as sharp. Donald Trump called Germany’s defence spending record ridiculous, while Friedrich Merz replied that Berlin is doubling its defence budget over four years and plans to hit NATO’s 3.5% core target by 2029. Lithuania’s move to reconsider its ban on hosting nuclear weapons shows how quickly Europe is rethinking old taboos. NATO is not collapsing; it is haggling over who shows up first when the alarm rings.