Evening Brief, Wednesday 3 June

Iranian forces struck Terminal 1 at Kuwait International Airport with drones and missiles, killing one person and injuring at least 63, according to Kuwaiti officials. India said the dead victim was an Indian national. The same wave touched Bahrain and US-linked targets, while US Central Command said it downed Iranian drones and then struck Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil moved toward $100 a barrel as the chokepoint stayed largely closed to shipping and the unsigned ceasefire looked more like a pause than a deal.

Donald Trump insisted talks with Tehran had not stopped, even as Iranian officials warned of more missiles and drones if attacks resumed.

Ukraine also widened its long-range campaign, hitting an oil export terminal in St Petersburg and military targets at the Kronstadt naval base on the opening day of Vladimir Putin's economic forum. Russian authorities reported injuries and airport disruption, while Moscow-appointed officials in occupied Donetsk said a Ukrainian drone hit a civilian bus near Yenakiieve, killing seven people, a claim Ukraine did not immediately address and independent reporters could not verify.

The two wars now press on the same weak spots, airports, ports, fuel terminals and public nerves, so even limited strikes can shake diplomacy and prices far beyond the battlefield.

The OECD put numbers on the anxiety now visible in oil pits and finance ministries. In its central case, where energy disruption eases, global growth slows from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026 before recovering to 3.1% in 2027. Even that softer landing leaves G20 inflation at 4.0% this year and the euro zone growing only 0.8%, with Germany at 0.7%.

The darker case assumes the Hormuz disruption drags into late 2027. Growth then falls to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, levels the OECD says are rare outside major global recessions, while G20 inflation climbs above 5% as oil rises toward $115 a barrel. Central banks would face the meanest of choices, raising rates to fight inflation just as investment and employment weaken.

The country effects look uneven. Spain still grows faster than its euro-zone peers, while Ireland is forecast to contract and energy importers from Europe to Asia absorb the shock first. The OECD also warned governments not to blunt price signals with broad tax cuts and caps, arguing that targeted help works better when supply is scarce.

The practical lesson is plain: one narrow waterway can still rewrite budgets, rate paths and election promises faster than any minister can announce a package.

Bodycam footage of Henry Nowak's final moments has forced Britain into an argument about policing, race and political restraint. Henry Nowak, an 18-year-old student, was stabbed in Southampton in December 2025 by Vickrum Digwa, who later received a life sentence with a minimum term of 21 years. Officers initially believed Digwa's claim that he had acted in self-defence, handcuffed Henry Nowak as he lay dying and only later began CPR, although pathologists said the wounds would have killed him at the scene regardless.

Protesters gathered outside Southampton police headquarters and some threw bricks, bottles and bins at officers, injuring 11 police personnel and a police dog. Keir Starmer said he felt horrified by the footage, but condemned Nigel Farage after the Reform UK leader described the case as proof of a two-tier justice system and urged cold rage. Shabana Mahmood backed a review of police race guidance while insisting that the Independent Office for Police Conduct should be allowed to finish its investigation.

The case has already escaped the facts of one failed police response and entered a by-election script, where grievance travels faster than inquiry findings. Britain now faces two investigations at once, one into police judgement and another, less formal but just as consequential, into whether politicians can leave a grieving family any room to grieve.

The US Trade Representative proposed extra tariffs on imports from 60 economies, accusing them of failing to stop goods made with forced labour from entering supply chains. The plan would add 10% duties on the European Union, Britain, Canada, Mexico and Argentina, and 12.5% on China, Japan, India, South Korea, Brazil and Switzerland. Washington is using Section 301 of the Trade Act after courts damaged earlier blanket tariff plans, so this is also a legal workaround dressed as a moral campaign.

Europe pushed back fast. Bernd Lange, who chairs the European Parliament's trade committee, called the charge absurd and pointed to the EU's own forced-labour import ban. Switzerland also rejected the finding, saying its laws already prohibit forced labour and that Washington had shown no harm to US companies. Public hearings are scheduled for July 7, leaving room for a bargain before duties become final.

Forced-labour rules give governments a worthy cause, but the politics will be judged by whether they clean supply chains or simply give protectionism a cleaner suit.

The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño is likely to develop between June and August, with an 80% probability, and has a near or above 90% chance of lasting at least until November. Forecast models point to an event that is at least moderate and possibly strong. The timing matters because oceans are already unusually hot, so the natural Pacific warming cycle will arrive on top of a climate system that has little spare capacity.

El Niño changes rainfall, wind and pressure patterns across much of the planet. Australia, Indonesia and the Sahel often face drought, while parts of the southern United States and northern Central America can receive heavier rain and flooding. Southern Asia and the Horn of Africa may see weaker monsoons, threatening crops and water supplies. Brazil expects wetter conditions in the south and drought risk in the north and northeast, while Spain's forecasters see little direct summer effect but still expect hotter-than-normal weather in some regions.

This is not a single disaster forecast, but a warning that governments should stock water plans, health systems and crop insurance before the weather starts sending invoices.

A fire tore through the Flourish Stay B&B in Malviya Nagar, south New Delhi, killing at least 21 people and forcing rescuers to pull more than 40 others from the building. The ground floor housed a restaurant and the hotel operated above it, near private hospitals that draw foreign patients seeking cheaper treatment in India. Officials said the cause was not yet known, though one local administrator said the blaze most likely began near the restaurant area.

Witnesses described people trapped on upper floors as smoke filled the building. Neighbours dragged mattresses from a nearby shop and laid them on the road so people could jump from windows. Several victims were reportedly medical tourists from African and Central Asian countries, a grim reminder that health travel depends not only on surgeons and prices, but on the safety of the rooms where patients and families sleep.

Narendra Modi announced compensation for families of the dead and for the injured, while Delhi's chief minister ordered an investigation. Forensic teams searched the site, and authorities warned that the building still had to be checked for additional victims. Delhi has seen repeated deadly fires linked to weak inspections, poor electrical systems and buildings used beyond their approved purpose.

The tragedy is brutally local, but the lesson travels well: cheap accommodation becomes expensive when fire exits, wiring and enforcement are treated as optional extras.