World·since 26 May·1,161 entries
The US under Trump: second term
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting from multilateralism toward transactional bilateral bargaining, linking security commitments, economic access and territorial claims to bilateral concessions across theatres.
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This week26 entries
State of playyesterday
Ukraine and Russia
Putin told envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg on 21 October that Moscow agrees in principle to resume technical-level talks with Kyiv and Washington after 10 November, while ruling out a ceasefire and any handover of occupied land. The White House says a localized halt in Oleshky starts 29 October.
The Economist reports a US draft plan with a demilitarized zone in Donbas, no NATO membership for Ukraine, and sanctions relief for Russia.
Sanctions and European Dependence
Trump waived most Russia sanctions and eased Russian diesel imports until April 2027, while pressing European allies to release emergency diesel stocks. Von der Leyen says EU energy sanctions stay. Reuters reports that US limits on Ukraine's Starlink access alarmed European officials and revived calls for European military satellite-communications capacity, with no immediate alternative.
Trade Fronts
Exemptions from the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods take effect on 30 October. Politico reports Washington ties EU steel tariff relief to softer Digital Markets Act enforcement. The test is whether Republican critics of the Russia waivers move Congress before Rubio's 60-day review closes.
What comes next
- in 2 daysIsrael holds election; Trump has endorsed Netanyahu
- in 4 daysOleshky pause between Russia and Ukraine due to start (some sources say 27 October)
- in 5 daysTariff exemptions on some Canadian imports take effect
- in 9 daysUS midterm elections for House and Senate
Open questions
- Will the US go ahead with raising car tariffs on EU vehicles from 15% to 25%, and how will the Commission respond?
- Will Washington actually suspend NATO's PURL programme or intelligence sharing to press Kyiv over refinery strikes?
Who is who8
Donald Trump US President
Says the US holds all the cards with Canada, while a US draft plan reported by the Economist offers Russia sanctions relief and Washington reportedly ties EU steel tariff relief to softer Digital Markets Act enforcement.
24 Oct
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Ukrainian President
Backs a ceasefire and trilateral talks, discusses Oleshky pause details with Moscow, and gains access to NATO's NSPA procurement agency as Kyiv-Washington ties cool.
24 Oct
US special envoys US negotiators on Russia and Ukraine
Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg on 21 October, heard Russia agree in principle to resume technical talks after 10 November, and drew a public rebuke from Downing Street for calling Putin a humanitarian.
22 Oct
EU leaders European Council members
Rejected the US asset proposal and any lifting of sanctions while the war continues, and are discussing a €90 billion loan for Kyiv.
18 Oct
Marco Rubio US Secretary of State
Says the Russia sanctions decision could take up to 60 days, and that SpaceX decides Starlink availability in Ukraine with no US curbs ordered.
21 Oct
Vladimir Putin Russian President
Ready to resume talks toward a final peace deal but rules out a ceasefire and any handover of occupied land; Russia agreed a localized Oleshky pause, per the White House.
24 Oct
Ursula von der Leyen European Commission President
Said on 21 October that EU sanctions on Russian energy will not be lifted despite the US diesel arrangement.
21 Oct
Melania Trump US first lady
The White House says she negotiated the localized Oleshky truce for aid and civilian evacuation.
24 Oct
Numbers
Trump approval rating (BBC) (%)
37→37 %
12/10 → 13/10 · pollar.news
US visas revoked since January 2025 (State Department) (visas)
175,000→300,000 visas
10/08 → 20/10 · pollar.news
Promises7
White Houseopen
Russia and Ukraine will halt military action in Oleshky from 29 October to allow aid and civilian evacuation.
23 Oct · due 29 Oct · pollar.news
Vladimir Putinopen
Russia will resume technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US after 10 November.
21 Oct · after 10 November 2026 · apnews.com
Donald Trumpopen
Trump will consider letting Ukrainians keep Temporary Protected Status until the war ends.
19 Oct · reuters.com
Marco Rubioopen
The administration will decide within 60 days whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs.
18 Oct · due 17 Dec · reuters.com
Donald Trumpopen
Taiwan will buy 30% of the planned Alaska LNG pipeline gas for 20 years and invest $4.4 billion.
14 Oct · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Oil, gas and mineral exploration in Greenland will start soon.
14 Oct · soon, no timeline given · pollar.news
Donald Trumpopen
Russia will supply 4.8 million tonnes of diesel under the arrangement announced after the Putin call.
10 Oct · pollar.news
Chronicle1,161 entries since 26 May
19–25 October26 entries
Senator Susan Collins announced on 23 October that nine categories of Canadian goods, including blueberries, potatoes and apples, will be removed from the 50% US tariffs. A White House official said preliminary reports are not final policy, and talks with Ottawa have been stalled since August.
A US draft plan for Ukraine would create a demilitarized zone in Donbas, bar Ukraine from NATO and reopen a route for Russian gas to Europe, the Economist reported. It would also give Russia sanctions relief, while a Russian diesel tanker heads for New York.
The White House said Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt military action in Oleshky, a Dnipro river city, from 29 October, brokered by Melania Trump. The pause is meant to let aid in and allow civilian evacuation through set passages.
The Trump administration urged European allies to release emergency diesel reserves and threatened to restrict US diesel exports if they refuse, Reuters reported on 23 October. The push aims to lower domestic fuel prices before the midterms and runs alongside eased measures on Russian fuel.
US ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told the Financial Times, in an interview published 23 October, that Washington is prepared for a prolonged standoff with Iran and would not rule out the conflict lasting another year, with preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon the stated aim.
Politico Europe reported on 22 October that Washington warned it would not reduce tariffs on European steel and other goods unless Brussels eased implementation of the Digital Markets Act, which governs large technology companies.
Putin said on 22 October that Russia is ready to resume talks toward a final peace deal but rejected any handover of occupied Ukrainian land. The same day Trump claimed Musk had restored Starlink access in Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials dispute.
Trump spoke with Elon Musk and asked him to lift restrictions on Ukraine's use of Starlink, the Wall Street Journal reported on 22 October, as cited by Reuters. The report did not say whether Musk agreed or whether access was restored.
US District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín in California ordered the administration on 22 October to suspend its investigations into alleged noncitizen voter registrations in nine states until polls close on 3 November, citing data errors and intimidation of groups assisting voters. The administration may appeal.
The European Parliament gave its Sakharov Prize to the ICC on 22 October, days after the Trump administration imposed sanctions meant to isolate the court over investigations involving the US and its allies, with a six-month wind-down for affected businesses.
Downing Street said it does not recognise the description of Vladimir Putin as a humanitarian, after Steve Witkoff used the term in St Petersburg on 21 October, the day Russia freed a US citizen. London thus publicly distanced itself from the US envoy.
The Pentagon is reportedly planning undercover agents posing as businesspeople to gather economic intelligence on China, and a sabotage unit was set up in April 2026. The Pentagon denies both initiatives.
NATO is giving Ukraine access to its procurement agency NSPA in Luxembourg, letting Kyiv buy weapons, ammunition and military equipment. The arrangement follows cooler Kyiv-Washington ties and a reduced US role in direct supply.
Steve Witkoff thanked Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg on 21 October for freeing an American, prompting rebukes from Republican senators while talks on Ukraine stall. The remarks put Trump's envoy at odds with senators of his own party over Russia policy.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on 21 October that comments tying riots in France to Muslim immigrants were "unacceptable and stupid", adding there was no evidence immigration caused the unrest. Trump had promoted those claims in his US political messaging.
Democratic groups and party leaders asked a federal court in Washington to halt federal moves against state voter rolls and to bar threats against election officials, less than two weeks before the 3 November midterms.
Russia released US citizen Stephen Hubbard, held since 2022, while Witkoff was in St Petersburg; Trump announced the release on 21 October, a day after saying he had asked Putin to free him.
Putin told Witkoff in St Petersburg on 21 October that Russia is ready in principle to restart technical-level talks with Ukraine and the US, per Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov. They would address post-war security arrangements, possibly in Abu Dhabi. No breakthrough was reported.
Ursula von der Leyen said on 21 October that EU sanctions on Russian energy will not be lifted, after the Trump administration reportedly agreed with Moscow to ease restrictions on diesel imports until April 2027, setting Washington and Brussels on different sanctions paths.
Steve Witkoff arrived in St Petersburg on the morning of 21 October, a day after talks with Volodymyr Zelensky in Oslo, and is due to present revised peace proposals to Vladimir Putin.
The US Court of International Trade ruled the new 10% global tariffs unlawful but left them in force for most importers while an appeal proceeds.
At a 20 October rally Trump said the United States could leave Europe if it does not find the right way quickly, faulting European countries for not helping in the Iran war and urging them to close borders. No formal withdrawal was announced.
Gellert Global Group, a New Jersey food importer, filed suit on 20 October arguing Trump exceeded his authority by invoking Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act on about $20 billion of Canadian imports. The case follows the Supreme Court's February ruling against most earlier tariffs.
Trump said on 20 October he had asked Vladimir Putin to free Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old retired teacher held in Russia since 2022. Envoy Steve Witkoff is due to meet Putin in St. Petersburg on 21 October.
The Department of Homeland Security ordered civilian federal agencies to remove DeepSeek products and services built on the model and barred new acquisitions. China's commerce ministry said the measure harms Chinese firms, and Beijing said it violated understandings between Xi Jinping and Trump.
The Department of Homeland Security said on 19 October that immigrants from Ukraine and Sudan can keep Temporary Protected Status for now, despite the scheduled expiry that day. Further announcements are to follow. Trump said he would consider letting Ukrainians stay until the war ends.
12–18 October23 entries
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Trump is pushing Ukraine to capitulate to Russia, and offered to halt strikes on Russian refineries in exchange for Patriot missiles, answering the reported US threat to withdraw arms and intelligence.
Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu a great warrior prime minister in a Truth Social post on 18 October and urged Israelis to keep him in office, nine days before the vote, as polls show a tight race.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on 18 October that the administration could take up to 60 days to decide whether to impose the suspended Russia sanctions and tariffs, using the period to assess their economic impact and keeping them as leverage.
Trump suspended many Russia-related sanctions and tariffs mandated by a law signed the previous month, Reuters reported on 16 October. His administration cited the aim of lowering US diesel prices ahead of the midterm elections.
European leaders turned down a reported US proposal to release billions of euros in frozen Russian assets, while Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš accused Trump of betrayal over a Russian diesel deal, deepening the Trump-Zelensky rift.
At the Brussels summit on 16 October, Zelenskyy pressed EU leaders for winter support after Trump moved to lift sanctions on Russian oil exports. The leaders said they will not lift sanctions while the war continues.
The New York Times reported a Russian plan for a month of missile and drone strikes to cut Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa off from electricity, water and heating, citing depleted Ukrainian air defences as the central weakness.
Trump told Newsmax on 15 October that negotiating with Volodymyr Zelensky is harder than with Vladimir Putin, after the energy truce he announced between Russia and Ukraine fell apart within days.
A donor list obtained by the Washington Post shows $333 million in private donations for Trump's ballroom, including at least $77 million from anonymous donors. Apple and Nvidia each gave $25 million. Trump's own name does not appear on the list.
The Government Security Centre sent an alert on 15 October to residents of many powiats in Lublin Voivodeship, saying Polish aircraft were operating in national airspace as Russia attacked Ukraine from the air.
Ukrainian officials left talks in Miami on 15 October after being told US arms purchases and satellite intelligence could be withdrawn unless Ukraine immediately halts attacks on Russian refineries, Le Monde reported.
The Financial Times reported on 15 October that US special envoys asked European countries to unfreeze Russian assets and transfer them to a Washington-overseen vehicle to restart talks with Moscow. European participants reportedly rejected US control and any return of funds to Russia.
Five senior House Republicans told Politico the party has all but lost the House, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 32%. The midterm elections are on 3 November, and a Democratic House would constrain the administration's foreign policy funding and oversight.
Denmark's foreign ministry said on 14 October that any US exploration of Greenland's oil, gas and minerals must take place within the island's legal framework. The statement answered Trump's claim of "massive" exploration and followed a Denmark-Greenland-US agreement on bases and missile defence.
Trump said on 14 October that oil, gas and mineral work in Greenland is about to start, naming no projects, timelines or companies. The claim follows the defence agreement between the United States, Denmark and Greenland signed on 22 September.
Trump told a Wasilla, Alaska, rally that Taiwan will take 30% of the planned pipeline's gas for two decades and invest $4.4 billion. Taipei had not commented, and Seoul said its own share of the project is not yet finally approved.
The Washington Post reports US and European governments are drafting a joint proposal offering economic benefits and security guarantees to both Ukraine and Russia. It would also press both sides toward territorial concessions that neither currently accepts.
Americans vote on 3 November, with Republicans holding a thin House majority and Trump's approval at about 37%, per the BBC. Democrats need a net gain of four House seats and must hold or flip Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan.
Trump said late on 12 October that Beijing and Moscow have too much to lose to help Tehran and would be found out quickly. The post came as criticism mounted over his diesel agreement with Russia.
Matthew Whitaker, Trump's NATO envoy, said Washington is reviewing its global commitments and considering moving military assets from western to eastern Europe. No relocation or withdrawal was announced. He also criticised allies below 2% defence spending, including Czechia.
The Trump administration contacted Kyiv and European capitals about potentially suspending NATO's PURL programme, which coordinates allied funding for US weapons for Ukraine, to pressure Ukraine over strikes on Russian refineries, the Financial Times reported, as republished by Deutsche Welle on 12 October.
Gen. Ireneusz Nowak, Poland's operational commander, said on 12 October that US deliveries of Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors will be late. The Baltic states face the same delays, and HIMARS contracts are also uncertain, which affects eastern-flank air defence planning.
Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's top military commander, outlined the alliance's new military plan in Warsaw on 12 October, designed to block and blunt a potential Russian attack on Europe.
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