Russia plans month-long strike campaign to cut power, water and heat in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa

A month of strikes on three cities

A plan described by The New York Times envisions one month of concentrated missile and drone strikes meant to cut Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa off from electricity, water and heating. According to a copy of the document the newspaper obtained, Russia expects sustained attacks on civilian infrastructure to accomplish what its forces have failed to achieve in four winters of war. Estimates cited in the reporting put the potential loss at 90% of electricity capacity in the three cities, with heat supply falling by 90% as well. Water supply and sewage systems would also be seriously disrupted. The reporting says Moscow hopes the resulting suffering would break Ukrainians' will to resist, and the air campaign itself is now in its fifth year with limited results so far.

The munitions behind the calculation

The plan estimates that Russia would need about 70 ballistic missiles, 720 long-range drones and 150 guided aerial bombs to cut the three cities off from those services. The newspaper set these totals against an analysis, based on Ukrainian air force data, of the missiles and drones that on average get through Ukraine's air defences each month. The planned quantities roughly match that monthly average, which underpins Moscow's assumption that one month would be enough. The munitions are the largest part of the plan's arithmetic, and the figures are set out below.

Why officials think Russia has the upper hand

Ukrainian officials and analysts who spoke to the newspaper said Moscow may now be better placed to reach its goals than at any earlier point in the full-scale war. They pointed to three factors. Ukraine's air defences have been weakened by years of attacks and by reduced American military aid. Russia's stockpile of missiles and drones has grown, and the weapons themselves have become more effective. Ukraine's energy infrastructure is so strained that a single successful hit could do as much damage as several earlier strikes. CNN reported on Thursday, 15 October, that Ukraine had run out of Patriot interceptor missiles, and almost none of the ballistic missiles in Russia's most recent salvo were intercepted.

Ukraine's own strikes and the outlook

Ukraine is running its own drone campaign against targets inside Russia, including refineries and data centres. Officials and analysts in Kyiv concede those strikes cannot inflict damage on the Russian economy comparable to what Russian attacks do to Ukraine's economy. The reporting says Russia is confident it can destroy Ukraine's energy system, and the intercepted plan reflects that confidence. The timeline below sets out when Kyiv shared the document and when the report appeared.

Kyiv presented the intercepted plan to European officials in September 2026, and the New York Times published its account on Thursday, 15 October. Coverage does not give a start date for the campaign.