Democrats favored to retake House as Senate races tighten before 3 November
Americans vote on 3 November for the House and Senate, where Republicans hold a thin House majority and Trump's approval rating sits at about 37%, according to the BBC. Democrats need a net gain of four House seats and must hold or flip Senate seats in Georgia and Michigan.
Stakes for Congress and the president
Americans vote on 3 November to elect members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers of Congress. Both are currently controlled by Republicans, and the BBC reports the result could decide how the rest of Donald Trump's presidency plays out. All 435 House seats are up for election because members serve two-year terms. The Republican majority in the House is 218 representatives, the exact number needed for control, plus one independent who votes with them. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, according to Reuters.
Trump's approval and the blue wave
Trump's approval rating is the central factor in the outlook. The BBC puts it at about 37% now, down from just over 50% at the start of his second term. It was around 42% when he launched air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February, and it fell below 40% shortly afterwards. Eight years ago Trump's rating at the same point in his first term was 43%, and Joe Biden's was 40%. In both cases the sitting president lost the House but kept the Senate. In 2006 Democrats won 31 House seats and five Senate seats, taking both chambers, while in 2018 they gained 41 House seats but lost two Senate seats.
Reuters reports that six analysts and party strategists warned that several factors could stop Democrats from turning favorable conditions into a landslide. Bill Galston, a former White House adviser to President Bill Clinton, said that even if Democrats gain 25 House seats, "they'd have a working majority, but not a huge one." Analysts estimate only about 40 to 50 of the House's 435 seats are truly competitive this year.
House races to watch
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the House. The Cook Political Report counts 21 toss-up districts, 15 held by Republicans and six by Democrats.
- Republican-held
- 15 districts
- Democrat-held
- 6 districts
In New York, Republican Mike Lawler is the most vulnerable House Republican up for reelection, facing combat veteran Cait Conley. Two polls conducted in late September show both candidates with narrow leads. In Texas, Republicans redrew the map to pick up five seats, but three are now in play in South Texas. Democrats Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are running in districts Trump would have won by 10 points in 2024, with Gonzalez facing Republican Eric Flores. The third district is an open race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia. In North Carolina, Democrat Don Davis is seeking reelection after redistricting shifted his seat, and he has outraised his opponent, retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout. In Virginia's 1st District, a Washington Post-Schar School poll from September has Democrat Shannon Taylor leading Republican Rob Wittman, though within the margin of error.
Senate battlegrounds
Democrats would need to flip at least two seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 to win a majority, according to Reuters. In Georgia, Democrats must hold Senator Jon Ossoff against Republican Mike Collins. Ossoff raised $98 million through 30 June and entered July with nearly $43 million on hand, while Collins had raised $7.4 million and reported $2.1 million on hand.
- Jon Ossoff, raised through 30 June
- 98 USD millions
- Mike Collins, latest reported total
- 7.4 USD millions
In Michigan, progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly beat the establishment favorite, Haley Stevens, in the Democratic primary. He faces former Representative Mike Rogers, and the latest polls show El-Sayed leading by between 1 and 7 points. Republicans have spent $86 million in the race, more than double Democrats' spending. Andrew Busch, a public policy professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, said Republicans are staying close in the races Democrats had hoped to win easily.
That's not necessarily what you would expect if things were going well for Democrats across the board.
What comes next
Campaigns must file quarterly fundraising reports this week, showing how much they raised between July and September and how much cash they had entering October. Polls in Virginia are among the first in the nation to close, so early results are expected on election night. Barack Obama is set to rally with El-Sayed later this month, and voting takes place on 3 November.
