Senior Republicans privately concede the House as Trump faces midterm backlash
Five senior House Republicans told Politico the party has all but lost the chamber, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 32%. The midterm elections are on 3 November.
A House majority slipping away
Five senior House Republicans told Politico anonymously that the party has all but lost its grip on the chamber. One compared the situation to Democrats' 2006 House flip and said possible Senate pickups in North Carolina and Ohio could have downballot effects. The Congressional Leadership Fund canceled ads in Nebraska and Iowa, and the Senate Leadership Fund then took that airtime for Senate races in those states. Wired reported that the group also dropped buys in Democratic-held districts in Michigan and Ohio and in the Nebraska seat being vacated by retiring Don Bacon.
Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to win the majority and have a chance in about two dozen races. Molly Murphy, a former polling adviser to Democrats' House campaign arm, said:
Absent a pretty massive polling error, it is very hard to imagine it isn't a done deal for Democrats at this point.
Senate push and the White House response
White House aides, according to three sources familiar with the situation, see almost no path to keeping the House and have shifted to defending the Senate. Early mail ballot returns in key Senate battlegrounds are relatively strong and comparable to 2024 presidential levels. Officials at MAGA Inc. have discussed how winning some combination of Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio would form a firewall against Democrats. Senate Republicans' campaign arm has paused ad spending in North Carolina since early October, where Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair, is on the ballot. White House assistant press secretary Liz Huston said the president remains committed to keeping Republican majorities in both chambers.
Leadership questions if the majority falls
Speaker Mike Johnson told CBS News he expects colleagues would ask him to keep leading the conference even under divided government. Axios reported that this could turn the leadership race into a three-way fight, following former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's example.
In the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority, I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference, even if we have divided government.
Some Republicans doubt he would want the minority leader job after serving as speaker. Majority Leader Steve Scalise is widely seen as a top contender, while Rep. Jim Jordan did not seek a waiver to remain Judiciary chair, which fueled speculation about a leadership run. Majority Whip Tom Emmer said in September that he intends to stay in his current role. Leader elections require only a majority of a secret ballot.
Trump's rallies and falling approval
Trump has campaigned for Republican Senate candidates in Texas, Ohio and Alaska. At Wasilla, Alaska, on Tuesday, 13 October, he said that every time he has been on the ballot, Republicans have won. He has also promised $5,000 payments to adult citizens if Republicans keep control of Congress, a pledge critics have called a bribe. He said in Alaska:
If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate, I'm going to give all adult citizens in the United States $5,000.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 65% of Americans disapprove of Trump's job as president, while 32% approve. Another Reuters poll found 78% of voters blame the Trump administration for rising costs.
- Approve
- 32 %
- Disapprove
- 65 %
Russia diplomacy draws bipartisan backlash
After speaking with Putin on Friday, 9 October, Trump made a series of concessions to Russia that Axios described as a five-day campaign. On Friday he announced a deal to put millions of tons of Russian diesel on global markets, easing sanctions. On Saturday he lashed out at Zelensky over strikes on Russian refineries and demanded Kyiv replace its leader.
- Trump announces a deal releasing millions of tons of Russian diesel onto global markets, easing sanctions
- Trump criticizes Zelensky over strikes on Russian refineries and demands Kyiv replace its leader
- Trump declares an immediate energy ceasefire, catching Zelensky off guard
- Trump dismisses intelligence reports that Russia aided Iran's war effort with information on US military assets
- Trump doubles down on the diesel deal and brushes off concerns about funding Russia's war
On Sunday he declared an immediate energy ceasefire that caught Zelensky off guard, even as Russia kept attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure. On Monday he dismissed intelligence reports that Russia had shared information about US military assets with Iran's war effort. On Tuesday he defended the diesel deal, and GOP senators called it a "betrayal" and "a gift to our adversary." Energy analysts doubt the deal will meaningfully ease fuel prices pushed up by the Iran war, and a January YouGov poll found 81% of Trump's own 2024 voters view Putin unfavorably.