World·since 26 May·1,121 entries
The Middle East after Gaza
The Gaza war triggered a realignment of Middle Eastern power and a direct US-Iran military conflict, shifting influence toward Gulf states and Iran-aligned actors while forcing regional and European powers to negotiate security for critical maritime chokepoints under wartime conditions.
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This week18 entries
State of playtoday 19:25
US-Iran Track
Iranian negotiators spent a third consecutive day in Doha with Qatari mediators on 1 November, with no direct US-Iran meeting. The sides split on sequencing: the US wants the nuclear programme first, while Tehran demands an end to the US port blockade and sanctions relief first.
Foreign Minister Araghchi says mediators are weighing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, conditional on oil waivers, release of frozen assets and fewer US forces in the region. Trump says the US still has one or two targets to "take care of" in Iran. Washington has told Gulf states to prepare for a short campaign after the 3 November midterms.
Hormuz, Yemen and Gaza
A Qatari LNG carrier, Al Mayeda, was hit by unidentified objects in the Gulf, with no injuries, while talks ran. Gulf governments fear another strike on Iran would bring retaliation against their territory. The GCC wants Hormuz navigation restored to pre-war conditions, and Saudi Arabia condemns renewed Houthi attacks. The Saudi-Houthi truce collapsed in July and Egypt's parliament has authorised military support for Riyadh.
In Gaza, Israeli strikes killed eight on 1 November while talks on Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal are stalled.
Next test: whether Iran answers Qatar's draft before the 3 November US vote.
What comes next
- in 2 daysUS midterm elections, deadline of Trump's no-strike pledge on Iran
Open questions
- Will the Saudi-led offensive secure the Bab el-Mandeb coast without Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites?
- Will Washington accept Tehran's demand to lift the port blockade and ease sanctions before nuclear issues are addressed?
Who is who8
Abbas Araqchi Iranian foreign minister
Says mediators are weighing a plan to reopen Hormuz, conditional on oil waivers, frozen assets and fewer US forces, and wants the blockade and sanctions addressed first.
1 Nov
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Iranian military force
Says three tankers exploded after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while CENTCOM rejects its account of mines.
1 Nov
Donald Trump US President
Weighs a deal against strikes after the 3 November midterms, while Washington tells Gulf states to prepare for a short campaign.
1 Nov
Houthis Yemeni armed movement
Fired ballistic missiles at Aden airport and the presidential palace on 30 October and are accused of letting a UN rights employee die in custody.
1 Nov
Saudi-led coalition Military force in Yemen
Says it intercepted Houthi drones near Mecca and Medina and a missile aimed at the Eastern Province.
1 Nov
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi Egyptian President
Said on 17 October Egypt would take any measures necessary to defend Saudi Arabia; parliament authorised military support on 26 October.
28 Oct
Benjamin Netanyahu Israeli prime minister
Told Israeli intelligence and military to seek Iran's overthrow; Israel says Hamas is rearming while Gaza talks are stalled.
1 Nov
Qatar Mediator between US and Iran
Hosts indirect talks in Doha on reopening Hormuz after sending mediators to Tehran on 30 October, coordinating with Washington.
1 Nov
Numbers
Amsterdam gas price (EUR/MWh)
90→97→100 EUR/MWh
20/10 → 26/10 → 28/10 · pollar.news
Promises7
Iranunclear
Tehran will reply to Qatar's seven-day draft framework by the end of the week.
28 Oct · by end of week of 28 October · reuters.com
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelattykept
Egypt will provide Saudi Arabia any support it requests against Houthi attacks.
13 Oct · bloomberg.com
Chinaopen
China will send special envoys to Middle Eastern countries to promote dialogue.
27 Oct · bloomberg.com
United Kingdomopen
Britain will deploy RAF fighter jets on defensive air patrols over Saudi Arabia.
20 Oct · ft.com
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpsopen
The IRGC will extend its maritime enforcement measures to the entire Persian Gulf.
9 Oct · pollar.news
Abbas Araqchiopen
Iran will respond within days to the US proposal under which Hormuz could reopen within seven days.
9 Oct · within days · aljazeera.com
Donald Trumpopen
The US will carry out no new strikes on Iran before the 3 November midterms.
9 Oct · due 3 Nov · pollar.news
Chronicle1,121 entries since 26 May
26 October – 1 November18 entries · 1 key
Israeli strikes killed eight Palestinians, including a child, in Khan Younis and Gaza City on 1 November, according to rescue services and hospitals. The Israeli military said it targeted militants, and Israel says Hamas is rearming while talks on disarmament and withdrawal are stalled.
A Yemeni employee of the UN Human Rights Office died after more than two years in arbitrary Houthi detention, the UN human-rights chief said on 31 October. The UN called for an independent investigation and the release of other detained UN personnel.
Unidentified objects struck the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda in the Persian Gulf, with no injuries reported. Nakilat, the vessel's operator, confirmed the incident while Doha talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz entered a third day.
Yemen's Saudi-backed military said Houthi forces launched ballistic missiles at Aden airport and the presidential palace on 30 October, with no casualties reported. The Saudi-led coalition separately said it intercepted Houthi drones near Mecca and Medina and over the Eastern Region.
Qatari mediators returned to Tehran on 30 October to try to prevent renewed US-Iran hostilities, coordinating with Washington. The US wants nuclear issues first; Iran demands an end to the US port blockade and oil-export sanctions relief before anything else.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre reported a ship on fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards said three tankers exploded after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the risk to shipping through the chokepoint.
Saudi-led coalition air defences destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile launched towards Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province on 29 October, Reuters reported. The strike attempt targets the region holding the kingdom's main oil infrastructure, as Houthi attacks and coalition retaliation continue.
Yemen's internationally recognized government emptied Aden international airport on 28 October after Houthi rebels ordered everyone to leave. Airport authorities told EFE at least two missiles hit the facility, and flights are being diverted to Djibouti.
Qatar has given Iran a seven-day draft framework to end the war with the US and Israel, Reuters reported on 28 October. It envisages daily confidence-building steps and guarantees by several countries. Tehran is expected to reply by week's end, though an Iranian official denied a new proposal.
The US has told several Gulf countries to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the 3 November midterms, the Wall Street Journal reported. Gulf states are meanwhile drafting a multi-part deal meant to prevent a return to war.
Exit polls after Israel's vote gave neither Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset. Arab parties, with an estimated 17 to 18 seats, could decide who forms the government.
An attack caused a fire near Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia's largest oil-export terminal, early on 27 October, Bloomberg reported. The report did not name the attacker or describe the damage. Saudi-led forces separately said they intercepted three ballistic missiles and four drones.
China's Foreign Ministry said on 27 October it will send special envoys to Middle Eastern countries to promote dialogue and prevent renewed fighting over the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. The announcement followed the Tehran talks involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan.
The UN Commission of Inquiry published a report on 26 October finding that Israel continued genocidal acts in Gaza after the US-brokered truce, citing heavy munitions, drones, artillery and sniper fire in dense areas. Israel rejected it as a misinformation campaign.
The Amsterdam TTF benchmark rose roughly 3 to 3.5% on 26 October to its highest level since late 2022, as disrupted LNG supply through Hormuz and a rush to refill storage pushed prices up.
Egypt's parliament authorised the armed forces to support Saudi Arabia on 26 October, Reuters reported, after intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, ports and energy sites. The vote could bring Cairo directly into the regional conflict.
Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan were due to meet Iranian officials in Tehran, Reuters reported on 26 October. Bloomberg said the aim is to defuse tensions and revive US-Iran negotiations, as Washington weighs a deal or renewed strikes.
Netanyahu said Israel has instructed its intelligence services and military to seek the overthrow of Iran's government, La Repubblica reported on 26 October. He also warned Iran could still pose a nuclear threat. No independent confirmation of a formal regime-change operation was provided.
19–25 October20 entries
Vice President Vance's letter was handed to Mohsen Rezaei on 25 October, proposing comprehensive talks that include Iran's nuclear program. It is a direct US overture while Trump weighs renewed strikes after the 3 November midterms.
Trump said no US attack on Iran would happen on 25 October, framing the choice as an agreement or military destruction. Reports say US and Israeli forces drafted plans for renewed strikes to begin after the 3 November US election.
King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh reopened terminals 1 and 2 on 25 October, more than two weeks after Houthi attacks on an adjoining complex killed 17 and wounded over 330. Saudi authorities said they intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile and drone that day.
Airstrikes killed 11 people, including four children, in Sana'a and at least four others in Hodeida province on 24 October, according to Houthi-controlled health authorities. The strikes came as the Houthis and the US remain in confrontation and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensify.
The State Department reduced personnel at US embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE on 24 October after a US intelligence memo said Iran had stepped up efforts to target Americans. The embassies stay open; Saudi Arabia faces a separate departure order.
Israel ordered a total lockdown of the West Bank on 23 October after a shooting in Hebron killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded others. The Israel Defense Forces then raided the city, adding a West Bank front to the strains on the Gaza ceasefire.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan was due to host counterparts from Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UK, France and Germany in Istanbul on 23 October. The agenda covers the US-Iran war, navigation in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Gaza and Yemen.
Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters, Reuters reported on 23 October, as fighting intensified around the world's largest crude exporter and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint. Oil prices were little changed after rising 4% the previous day.
The UAE closed all beaches and coastal areas in Umm Al Quwain after a tanker leak. Satellite imagery showed the slick had spread more than 35 km from the tanker by 21 October and was extending toward island habitats.
After talks in Doha on 22 October, President Macron and Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani urged Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, unhindered aid, freedom of navigation in Hormuz without constraints or fees, and backing for a framework to disarm Hezbollah.
Houthi attacks killed at least one person and wounded eight at a civilian airport in Dammam, and a separate drone attack killed two people at a Saudi oil field, Reuters reported on 22 October. It extends the Houthi campaign into Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.
The State Department is preparing an ordered departure of personnel and family members from several Gulf missions over the risk of renewed fighting, Reuters reported on 21 October. The US embassy in Riyadh warned of further Houthi attacks after strikes affecting Riyadh's airport.
A Houthi missile strike on a military camp near Shabwa killed 75 Yemeni recruits and wounded more than 200, the Associated Press reported on 21 October. It is the deadliest reported attack since fighting in Yemen intensified, far above earlier tolls of at least 18.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude burned after striking a mine, claiming it left the permitted corridor despite warnings. Tehran counts nine ships that have hit mines in the strait.
Brent crude rose as high as $112 a barrel on 20 October, a five-month high, while European gas on the Amsterdam exchange passed 90 euros per megawatt-hour, its highest since late 2022, as Hormuz ship attacks and Houthi strikes intensified.
Turkey submitted the Saudi-Pakistani mutual-defence agreement to its parliament for ratification, Bloomberg reported on 20 October. The pact could facilitate military assistance to Saudi Arabia as it faces Houthi attacks, widening the response beyond the Saudi-led coalition.
The UK will deploy Royal Air Force fighter jets to help defend Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks, the Financial Times reported on 20 October. The mission is defensive air patrol, not strikes on Houthi targets, adding Britain to France in shielding Saudi territory.
The UN World Food Programme said on 19 October it will reduce planned monthly assistance in Gaza from 1.6 million to 1.1 million people because of funding shortages. It said more than two-thirds of the population face acute hunger, with 200,000 in emergency conditions.
Three Houthi ballistic missiles struck the al-Alam camp in Shabwa province on 19 October, and the Houthis called it a Saudi-backed base. Reported death tolls range from 18 to 30, the deadliest single strike in the recent escalation against Saudi-backed forces.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said a tanker struck a mine and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing it of using an unauthorised southern route with tracking systems off. The ship's name, flag and origin were not disclosed.
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