ThreadThe Middle East after Gaza

Conflicts · Tehran

Trump rules out an Iran strike on 25 October as he weighs a deal or renewed attacks

Trump said no US attack on Iran would happen on 25 October, while describing a choice between an agreement and military destruction. Reports say US and Israeli forces had drafted plans for renewed strikes to start after the 3 November US election.

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In brief

Photo: Daniel Torok, Public domain (Wikimedia Commons, cropped)
How it came to this
  1. 21 OctNew York Times reports US and Israeli forces drafting renewed strike scenarios
  2. 22 OctThomas Barrack says a strike could happen before the weekend ends
  3. 25 OctTrump says no strike on Iran will happen that day

Choice between a deal and force

Trump said he faces a choice between reaching an agreement with Iran and finishing the country off. In a Fox News interview he said the United States holds absolute control of the Strait of Hormuz and that Washington gets everything while Tehran gets nothing. Bloomberg reported that he said the moment was nearing "decision time" on whether to make a deal with Tehran or resume US attacks. Speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force One, he said US intelligence on Iran came in two very different sets of reports.

Assurance on 25 October

Before flying to Michigan for a rally, Trump told reporters there would be no attack on Iran on 25 October. He first mocked a question about whether a strike would come that same day, then said no strike would take place. His remarks came as reports pointed to preparations for a renewed campaign of strikes on Tehran.

Plans and warnings before the weekend

On 21 October, the New York Times reported that US and Israeli forces were developing scenarios for renewed intensive strikes on Iran, with an operation that would begin after the US elections scheduled for 3 November. According to that report, the option envisaged a series of strikes of limited duration but high intensity, aimed at Iranian energy facilities, installations linked to the nuclear program and the arsenal of missiles and drones. On Thursday, 22 October, Thomas Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and envoy for Syria, said in an interview that a strike could happen before the weekend was over, while noting that Trump kept both diplomacy and a return to fighting open.

Talks on Ukraine and Russia

Trump also addressed planned negotiations in November involving representatives of the United States, Ukraine and Russia, saying the meeting would take place in the near future. He expressed the view that both Kyiv and Moscow were interested in reaching an agreement.

This article is part of a thread

The Middle East after Gaza

What changed since this entry:

  1. 26/10Trump ruled out a strike on 25 October; strike plans reportedly timed for after the 3 November US election
  2. 26/10Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a ballistic missile and drone launched toward Riyadh

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Sources and context

Tehran · Iran

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