US warns Gulf states of new strikes on Iran after midterm elections

Warnings to Gulf countries

The Wall Street Journal reports, citing people briefed on the talks, that Washington has told several Gulf countries to prepare for a short but intense military campaign against Iran. The campaign is expected to start after the US midterm elections on 3 November. The warnings went through diplomatic and military channels. The newspaper presents them as one more sign that the United States and Israel are preparing a new round of heavy strikes meant to weaken Tehran and push it back to the negotiating table. The Department of Defense said its job is to provide the president with such options. The White House said it would not discuss sensitive military plans, whether or not they exist, and that President Donald Trump is keeping all options open so Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.

Forces moving into position

According to flight-tracking data and two officials cited by the Wall Street Journal, the US Army is sending an additional Patriot air defence system from Texas to Israel to reinforce missile defences. American units have also been moved out of Middle East bases judged most exposed to Iranian drone and missile attacks. Munitions stocks in the region are being replenished, and bombers and fighter jets are preparing for possible strikes. A further carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit are ready to join about 20 other warships due to operate in the Middle East in November 2026, although some vessels may be rotated out.

Trump weighs strike or deal

President Donald Trump has not made a final decision, the newspaper reports, but people close to him say he leans toward a large strike after the vote. Such an attack could target Iran's infrastructure and nuclear sites. The alternative is a negotiated agreement. Regional mediators have kept up their efforts, but have not produced results so far. At a rally in the week of 19 October, Trump said the US might carry out another campaign like Epic Fury, the bombing campaign by the US and Israel in the spring, or Iran could come to a deal.

A multi-part Gulf plan

Gulf states are drafting a peace agreement with several components aimed at preventing what they regard as a disastrous return to war. Under the plan, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within four days of sanctions being lifted on Tehran, and significant Houthi forces would withdraw from Yemen. Washington is aware of the negotiations but insists on further concessions from Iran. European powers say the minimum condition is allowing UN weapons inspectors back into Iran, including access to the bombed nuclear facilities. Iran has refused so far, saying it is willing only to hold discussions in principle about its nuclear programme. Ali Bagheri, deputy secretary of the National Security Council, said Tehran could cut the gap between sanctions relief and reopening the strait from seven days to four. British foreign minister Ed Miliband urged Iranian authorities to accept the inspectors during a meeting in New York with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi.

Yemen track

Iran is beginning to acknowledge a mediating role in the parallel conflict in Yemen. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, met Ibrahim al-Dulaimi, the Houthi ambassador to Iran, on Tuesday, 27 October. The Yemen track runs alongside the Hormuz talks, and the withdrawal of Houthi forces is one of the components of the Gulf draft. The next fixed date in the reporting is the midterm vote on 3 November.