Polish polls show Civic Coalition leading as governing camp falls short of majority

Polling leads and sample methodologies

Two national opinion polls published on 10 September 2026 show Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO) maintaining a double-digit lead over Law and Justice (PiS), yet facing an arithmetic shortfall in parliament. A survey conducted by Opinia24 between 7 and 9 September on 1,001 adult Polish residents placed KO at 31.4% (up 1.1 percentage points from August), while PiS recorded 17.5% (up 0.3 points). A parallel poll by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska, conducted between 4 and 6 September among 1,000 declared voters using mixed CAWI and CATI methods, measured KO at 30.2% (up 2.9 points) and PiS at 19.2% (down 1.4 points).

Projected parliamentary seat distribution

Despite KO expanding its polling margin over PiS to 13.9 points in the Opinia24 survey and 11.0 points in the United Surveys study, the current governing coalition loses its parliamentary majority in seat simulations. Calculations by Professor Jarosław Flis of the Jagiellonian University, applying the d'Hondt electoral allocation to the United Surveys figures, assign KO 189 seats and The Left (Lewica) 25 seats. This yields 214 deputies in total, leaving the governing bloc 17 seats short of the 231 needed for a working majority in the 460-seat Sejm.

Right-wing bloc seat projections

The parliamentary balance shifts toward four conservative and right-wing formations, which together project to hold 246 seats in the United Surveys model. PiS would secure 113 seats, Confederation (Konfederacja) would take 85 seats, Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP) would take 27 seats, and Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus would take 21 seats. In the Opinia24 poll, the combined vote share for these four right-wing groups reached 42.7%, compared to 38.6% for KO and Lewica combined.

Shifts across conservative formations

The Opinia24 survey recorded contractions among right-wing formations positioned to the right of PiS. Confederation fell by 2.7 percentage points to 12.6%, while Braun's KKP dropped 2.1 percentage points to 6.9%. These fieldwork dates coincided with public reports regarding the Zondacrypto investigation, which examines foundation donations linked to PiS and Confederation politicians. Rozwój Plus, which has campaigned on replacing the 800-plus child benefit with a parental salary for parents of young children, registered 5.7% in the Opinia24 survey (up 0.4 points) and 6.0% in the United Surveys poll.

Sub-threshold results and voter turnout

The governing camp's shortfall is caused by its current coalition partners dropping beneath the 5% parliamentary threshold. In the United Surveys poll, the Polish People's Party (PSL) scored 3.7% and Szymon Hołownia's Poland 2050 registered 0.5%, while Partia Razem received 4.0%. In the Opinia24 study, PSL received 2.2%, Poland 2050 took 1.4%, Razem reached 4.2%, and undecided voters expanded to 10.4% from 1.1% in August. Declared participation in the Opinia24 study stood at 75% (53% definitely, 22% rather), led by men (82%) and university-educated voters (84%).