Opinia24 poll: KO leads with 33.1%, PiS 17.3%, Konfederacja 13.8%, Razem and PSL below threshold

Party support in the October poll

Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) would win an election held next Sunday, according to the October party poll by Opinia24 published on 8 October 2026. Among all respondents, 33.1% said they would vote for KO, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous survey. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) came second with 17.3%, down 0.2 points, and Konfederacja third with 13.8%, up 1.2 points. TVN24 gave the September figures as 31.4% for KO, 17.5% for PiS and 12.6% for Konfederacja.

Three more parties cleared the threshold. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej polled 7.6%, Lewica 6.5% and Rozwój Plus 5.3%. Rozwój Plus is the grouping of Mateusz Morawiecki, and RMF24 reported that after rising to almost 7% it had fallen to a level that clears the threshold with only a minimal margin.

Parties below the threshold

Razem scored 3.5%, Polska 2050 2.2% and the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL) 2%. Another party was chosen by 1.4% of respondents, while 7.3% said they did not know whom they would vote for. Wprost, which reported only decided voters, gave KO 35.7%, PiS 18.7% and Konfederacja 14.9%. It added that PiS, Konfederacja, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej and Rozwój Plus together reached 47.5%, a figure it said does not automatically mean a joint majority, since those parties would have to agree after the vote. Reports also differ on the change for Konfederacja Korony Polskiej, which Do Rzeczy put at +0.7 points while other outlets reported a decline of 0.4 points.

Urszula Krassowska, Director of Social Research at Opinia24, described the position of the governing bloc's smaller partners:

The result of KO is undoubtedly a reason for satisfaction for the largest ruling party, but the situation of the other parties in the coalition is much more difficult.

Turnout intentions

Opinia24 found that 73% of Poles say they would take part in an election held next Sunday. Half of respondents (50%) said they would definitely vote and 23% said they would rather vote. On the other side, 12% said they would definitely not vote, 7% would rather not, and 8% did not know. The survey was conducted 5-7 October on a representative sample of 1,001 adult Poles, using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and online interviews (CAWI).

Reactions and the coalition picture

RMF24 reported that the September election for mayor of Kraków and the debate around it had not translated into more national interest in voting. Krassowska said the share of respondents firmly committed to voting had fallen compared with the previous month.

The share of people who firmly declare that they will take part in the elections has decreased.

naTemat.pl linked the poll to a dispute over fuel prices in which President Karol Nawrocki signed a law introducing a windfall tax on fuel producers. That step allowed the government to restart the CPN programme and bring fuel prices down, and naTemat.pl asked whether it had affected voters' choices. Krassowska also noted that KO has gained support steadily since August, while Lewica recorded another decline and Polska 2050 and PSL remain below the threshold.