KO leads CBOS poll at 28.6%, PiS up 3.2 points; four parties clear 5% threshold

KO and PiS gain in the early October poll

A CBOS poll conducted from 5 to 8 October 2026 puts Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) first among declared voters with 28.6%, up 2.5 points on the previous month. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) is second at 18.2%, a rise of 3.2 points that CBOS described as the largest gain of any party this month, after two months of decline. Konfederacja follows at 12.8%, down 2 points, while Konfederacja Korony Polskiej led by Grzegorz Braun stands at 7.3%, down 0.5 points. Only these four parties would clear the 5% threshold and enter the Sejm if the election were held in the first ten days of October.

CBOS said of the ruling party's ratings:

October is the third month of this government in which the ratings of the most important ruling party have improved.

CBOS reported that 74% of respondents declared they would take part in the election, which it called practically the same as in August and September.

Parties below the threshold

Razem reached 4.9%, down 1.2 points, Rozwój Plus 3.8%, down 0.1 points, and Nowa Lewica 3.0%, down 2.9 points. The Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL) is at 2.8%, down 0.3 points, Polska 2050 RP at 1.2%, up 0.4 points, and Unia Centrum at 0.4%, up 0.3 points. Another 0.5% named other parties. Undecided respondents made up 14%, and 2.5% refused to disclose a preference. The survey used computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI, 80%) and online interviews (CAWI, 20%) among 1,000 adult Poles, and the electoral weight was applied to participation and party preference data.

A decided-voter reading from the same poll

Onet and Do Rzeczy published a second set of figures that counts only decided voters, excluding "hard to say" answers and refusals. On that basis KO reaches 32.8%, PiS 22.1%, Konfederacja (named Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość by Do Rzeczy) 14.7%, and Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 11.6%. Razem is at 5.4%, Rozwój Plus of Mateusz Morawiecki at 4.0%, Lewica at 3.3%, PSL at 3.2%, Polska 2050 at 1.5%, Unia Centrum at 0.6%, and other parties at 0.9%. Onet writes that the current opposition would need the votes of Grzegorz Braun's party to reach a Sejm majority, a step that Jarosław Kaczyński had previously ruled out.

The September baseline

Do Rzeczy also gives September figures for the same question: KO 29.1%, PiS 19.1%, Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość 17.9%, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 8.1%, Nowa Lewica 7.2%, Razem 6.8%, and Rozwój Plus 6.2%. That September figure for KO sits above the 28.6% reported for October, while Forsal, RMF24 and Gazeta Prawna describe KO's October result as a 2.5-point rise on the previous month. The coverage does not reconcile these two baselines.