KO slips to 29% in IBRiS poll after Constitutional Tribunal clash, coalition seen short of majority

Poll shows KO losing ground

The IBRiS survey for Rzeczpospolita, conducted on 6 and 7 November among 1,069 people, puts Koalicja Obywatelska first with 29%, down 1.9 points from the paper's September poll. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość stands at 16.5%, down 0.8 points and its lowest result in the series of polls the paper has commissioned. Konfederacja has 13.2%, a loss of 2.1 points, while Konfederacja Korony Polskiej led by Grzegorz Braun rises 0.5 points to 10.5%. Nowa Lewica holds at 7.6%, and Rozwój Plus led by Mateusz Morawiecki drops 0.4 points to 6%.

KO29%

PiS16.5%

Konfederacja13.2%

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej10.5%

Nowa Lewica7.6%

Rozwój Plus6%

PSL4.2%

Razem4.1%

Polska 20500.4%

KO

29 %

PiS

16.5 %

Konfederacja

13.2 %

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

10.5 %

Nowa Lewica

7.6 %

Rozwój Plus

6 %

PSL

4.2 %

Razem

4.1 %

Polska 2050

0.4 %

Data from the article text

Coalition partners below the threshold

PSL polls at 4.2%, Polska 2050 at 0.4%, and Razem at 4.1%, a gain of 1 point. The share of undecided respondents rose from 4.8% in September to 8.5%, a 3.7-point increase that is the largest change in the survey. Declared turnout is unchanged at 59%, but the share of respondents who say they would definitely vote rose from 41% in September to 50%.

Seat arithmetic

Prof. Jarosław Flis of the Jagiellonian University converted the results into seats in the basic variant. KO would receive 188 seats, PiS 96, Konfederacja 72, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej 53, Nowa Lewica 31 and Rozwój Plus 20. The Coalition of 15 October would reach 219 seats, against the 231 needed for a majority.

KO188

PiS96

Konfederacja72

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej53

Nowa Lewica31

Rozwój Plus20

KO

188

PiS

96

Konfederacja

72

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

53

Nowa Lewica

31

Rozwój Plus

20

Data from the article text

Context: the Tribunal dispute

The poll follows an escalation around the Constitutional Tribunal on the night of 30 to 31 October, when police were mobilised and a crowd gathered in front of the court. Rzeczpospolita reports that the president returned from Senegal and intervened at the Tribunal that night. Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the Tribunal had already begun normal work. The same paper reports that police action at Aleja Szucha drew attention during these events.

De-escalation and the undecided vote

According to Rzeczpospolita, Tusk has offered a meeting to President Karol Nawrocki, and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has proposed a reset in relations. The paper argues that the voters KO lost went to the undecided group rather than to opposition parties, which leaves room for the ruling side to win them back. The IBRiS figures show that the undecided share, not the opposition, gained the most in this round.