CBOS poll: KO leads with 28.1%, PiS and Confederation just 0.4 points apart

Poll standings

A CBOS survey published on 6 November 2026 asked respondents which party they would vote for if parliamentary elections were held in early November. Koalicja Obywatelska (KO) remained first with 28.1% of declared voters, a fall of 0.5 points from the previous month. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) dropped 2.4 points to 15.8%, losing ground again after its October rise. Konfederacja gained 2.6 points to 15.4%, leaving it just 0.4 points behind PiS, which CBOS described as one of the party's best results recently. In total, five groupings would clear the 5% threshold and enter the Sejm.

Koalicja Obywatelska28.1%

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość15.8%

Konfederacja15.4%

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej7.8%

Nowa Lewica5.9%

Partia Razem3.4%

Rozwój Plus2.8%

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe1.8%

Polska 2050 RP1.1%

Unia Centrum0.2%

Koalicja Obywatelska

28.1 %

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

15.8 %

Konfederacja

15.4 %

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

7.8 %

Nowa Lewica

5.9 %

Partia Razem

3.4 %

Rozwój Plus

2.8 %

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

1.8 %

Polska 2050 RP

1.1 %

Unia Centrum

0.2 %

Data from the article text

Smaller parties near the threshold

Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej would receive 7.8%, up 0.5 points from the previous month. Nowa Lewica recorded the largest gain of any party in the survey, rising 2.9 points to 5.9%, which is enough to clear the threshold. Partia Razem fell 1.5 points to 3.4%, while Rozwój Plus dropped 1 point to 2.8%. Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe stood at 1.8%, down 1 point, Polska 2050 RP at 1.1%, down 0.1 points, and Unia Centrum at 0.2%, down 0.2 points. Another 1.7% of declared voters chose other parties, so none of the remaining groupings reached 5%.

Undecided voters and an imputed scenario

Beyond party preferences, 14.2% of respondents said they had not yet decided and 1.8% refused to reveal their choice. CBOS noted that together these two groups make up 16% of declared voters in November, and that if they formed one party's electorate they would rank second on the list. Because that share is so large, the institute has for several months tried to estimate their party sympathies approximately. In this imputed variant the parliamentary balance does not change, but every party's support rises, with KO at 32.1%, PiS at 20.6%, Konfederacja at 17.0%, Konfederacja Korony Polskiej at 9.2% and Nowa Lewica at 7.0%.

Koalicja Obywatelska32.1%

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość20.6%

Konfederacja17%

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej9.2%

Nowa Lewica7%

Partia Razem4.4%

Rozwój Plus3.2%

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe2.9%

Polska 2050 RP1.5%

Unia Centrum0.2%

Koalicja Obywatelska

32.1 %

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

20.6 %

Konfederacja

17 %

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej

9.2 %

Nowa Lewica

7 %

Partia Razem

4.4 %

Rozwój Plus

3.2 %

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

2.9 %

Polska 2050 RP

1.5 %

Unia Centrum

0.2 %

Data from the article text

Turnout and the Constitutional Tribunal

Declared turnout in the parliamentary election stood at 77.7% of respondents, 3.7 points higher than in the previous month. CBOS linked the rise to recent events surrounding the Constitutional Tribunal, which it said had raised the political temperature. The institute suggested this heightened atmosphere could explain why more people are willing to take part in voting. The result is that the survey shows both a tighter race at the top and a more mobilised electorate than a month earlier.

Survey method

The survey was carried out from 2 to 4 November 2026 among 1,000 adult residents of Poland. Interviews were conducted by computer-assisted telephone (CATI, 80%) and online (CAWI, 20%). Data on declared turnout and party preferences were weighted using an electoral weight.