PS leads new Portuguese poll at 23%, Chega moves into second over AD

Direct voting intention

An ICS/ISCTE survey, coordinated by the ICS and ISCTE with fieldwork by GFK Metris and published on Thursday, 29 October, puts the Socialist Party (PS) first. Asked how they would vote if legislative elections were held now, 23% of respondents chose the PS, 21% chose Chega and 20% chose the AD, the PSD/CDS coalition. It is the first time across the SIC and Expresso polls that the coalition has placed third, behind the party led by André Ventura.

PS23%

Chega21%

AD20%

Livre3%

Liberal Initiative (IL)3%

CDU2%

Bloco de Esquerda2%

PS

23 %

Chega

21 %

AD

20 %

Livre

3 %

Liberal Initiative (IL)

3 %

CDU

2 %

Bloco de Esquerda

2 %

Data from the article text

Livre and the Liberal Initiative (IL) each stand at 3%, while the CDU and the Bloco de Esquerda have 2% each, a combined 10% for the four smaller parties. Undecided respondents are the largest remaining group at 13%, and abstainers make up 10% of those surveyed. The PAN falls below 1% and is counted under Others.

Redistributing undecided voters

When undecided voters are distributed across the parties and abstainers are excluded, the picture changes. The PS reaches 30%, while Chega and the AD each reach 26%. Livre and IL rise to 4%, the CDU to 3% and the Bloco de Esquerda stays at 2%. This adjusted scenario gives the PS its largest lead, four points over both Chega and the AD.

PS30%

Chega26%

AD26%

PS

30 %

Chega

26 %

AD

26 %

Data from the article text

Change since May

The previous ICS/ISCTE poll, taken in May, had the PS on 24% and the AD on 21% in direct intention, with Chega on 17%. The PS therefore slipped one point to 23%, the AD fell one point to 20%, and Chega rose from 17% to 21%. Under the redistribution scenario, the PS moved from 31% to 30%, the AD from 27% to 26%, and Chega from 20% to 26%. The AD won its last legislative election with 31.9% of the vote, and the new survey arrives about a year and a half after that vote and six months after the previous poll.

Method and margin of error

Fieldwork ran from 16 to 25 October, with personal interviews at respondents' homes and a simulated ballot in a voting box. Of 2,900 eligible individuals contacted, 808 interviews were validated. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 3.5% at a 95% confidence level. The PS lead of two points over Chega and three points over the AD sits within that margin, and the lead over Chega falls at its edge. The survey was coordinated by the ICS and the ISCTE for the SIC and Expresso.