Centra poll keeps PP short of a majority

The Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces (Centra), which depends on the Andalusian regional government's Consejería de Presidencia, Sanidad y Emergencias, published its barometer on 19 October 2026. It is the first survey to release vote estimates since the regional election of 17 May. Fieldwork ran from 11 to 25 September 2026 and questioned 3,600 adults living in Andalusia. The People's Party of Andalusia (PP-A), led by Juanma Moreno, is estimated at 41.5% of the vote and between 52 and 53 seats, against the 53 it won in May. Parliament has 109 seats and a majority requires 55, so the PP would again need Vox, the party it formed a coalition government with, formalised on 2 July. eldiario.es describes the poll as a snapshot of voting intention, taken five months after the regional vote and less than two months before the general election on 29 November.

Socialists slide while Vox and Adelante gain

The Socialists (PSOE-A), led by María Jesús Montero, are estimated at 18.9% and 23 to 26 seats, down from 28 in May. eldiario.es gives their May share as 22.7%, while El País reports a fall of almost four points. Vox, whose national leader is Santiago Abascal and whose Andalusian lead is Manuel Gavira, is put at 16.1% and 16 to 20 seats, against 15 now. Adelante Andalucía, led by José Ignacio García, is estimated at 12.5% and 9 to 10 seats, up from eight, and El País says it is the party growing fastest. Por Andalucía, the coalition led by Antonio Maíllo, stands at 6.5% and 4 to 5 seats, against five at present. García spoke to reporters in Dos Hermanas, near Seville, and said his party's aim is to push out the right and the far right, meaning PP and Vox. He went on:

“Until we stop the right and the far right in their tracks, we are not going to be content and we are not going to stop.”

PP-A41.5%

PSOE-A18.9%

Vox16.1%

Adelante Andalucía12.5%

Por Andalucía6.5%

PP-A

41.5 %

PSOE-A

18.9 %

Vox

16.1 %

Adelante Andalucía

12.5 %

Por Andalucía

6.5 %

Data from the article text

Government rating, housing and health

Antonio Sanz, the first vice-president and councillor for the Presidency, Health and Emergencies, welcomed the findings in Seville and presented them as public backing for the government of Juanma Moreno. He said:

“It is a new spur to keep working hard and responsibly, day by day, for the people of Andalusia.”

The barometer found that 45.1% of Andalusians rate the regional government's management positively and gives Moreno a score of 5.5 out of 10. El País reports that 47% of respondents give the president's management a positive rating. Sanz said that access to housing and its price is now the main problem for citizens, while health, which had been first, has dropped to third. He added that much remains to be done in healthcare in Andalusia.

Ceuta and the survey's questions on Morocco

Sanz also highlighted that seven in ten Andalusians say they are worried about the situation in Ceuta and its possible effects on Andalusia. According to him, most respondents regard the events that took place as an invasion or an attack on Spanish sovereignty. Asked which measures they favour, respondents put greater diplomatic firmness towards Morocco first, followed by the expulsion of everyone who entered the country irregularly, and then more military and security personnel. The Ceuta findings are part of the same barometer that Sanz presented to reporters in Seville on 19 October.

Timeline and what comes next

According to El País, the poll was carried out before the Cortes were dissolved and the general election was called for 29 November. The sequence runs from the regional vote on 17 May to the PP-Vox coalition government formalised on 2 July, followed by fieldwork from 11 to 25 September and publication on 19 October.

The Socialists' estimate will be read against the 28 seats they won in May, while Vox and Adelante are measured against their 15 and eight seats. Until a vote is held, every seat figure in the barometer remains an estimate, with ranges rather than fixed counts.