Catalan poll projects Aliança Catalana to surge to 30 seats and tie with PSC

Projected seat distribution

An Ipsos survey conducted between 23 September and 1 October 2026 for La Vanguardia, based on 2,000 interviews, indicates a shift in Catalan parliamentary representation at the midpoint of the legislative term. Aliança Catalana, led by Sílvia Orriols, projects to increase its presence from two seats to 30 seats if elections were held now. The Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), headed by regional president Salvador Illa, would lose 12 seats, dropping from 42 to 30 and tying with Aliança Catalana for the largest delegation. Junts per Catalunya experiences the steepest decline, falling from 35 seats to 16 seats and moving to fifth place. Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) advances from 20 to 23 seats, Vox climbs from 11 to 18 seats, the People's Party (PP) drops from 15 to 11 seats, Comuns falls from six to four seats, and the CUP drops from four to three seats.

Vote shares and voter movement

In vote share projections, the PSC retains the lead at 21.7%, down from 28% in the May 2024 election. Aliança Catalana moves into second place with 17.9% of the projected vote, rising from 3.8% in 2024 and expanding from 120,000 to more than 500,000 voters. The party had previously polled at 19 seats in a September 2025 Ipsos survey before reaching its current projection. ERC takes third place with 15.0%, Vox gains five percentage points to reach 13.1%, and Junts drops to 10.8%. The PP receives 8.6%, Comuns registers 4.4%, and the CUP secures 3.2%. Sílvia Orriols retains 86% of her 2024 electorate while capturing 29.8% of past Junts voters, 12.3% of past ERC voters, and 8.2% of past PSC voters, placing her party first in the provinces of Girona and Lleida.

Coalition arithmetic and political deadlock

The projected seat distribution creates parliamentary deadlock in the 135-seat chamber, where 68 seats are required for an absolute majority. The existing tripartite alliance of PSC, ERC, and Comuns totals 57 seats, falling 11 seats short of a majority and reaching only 60 seats if supported by the CUP. Pro-independence parties (Aliança Catalana, ERC, Junts, and the CUP) hold 72 seats in total, but ERC and the CUP reject cooperation with Orriols. A conservative configuration of Aliança Catalana, Vox, Junts, and the PP reaches 75 seats, but territorial divisions between unionist and secessionist forces prevent joint governance. Together, Aliança Catalana and Vox account for 48 seats, representing over 35% of the legislature.

Public priorities and leader evaluations

Housing stands as the top issue for 32% of respondents, particularly among left-leaning voters, followed by immigration at 20%, which forms the primary concern for supporters of Aliança Catalana and Vox. The general political situation ranks as the third leading issue, seen as severe primarily among Junts and PP voters. Positive evaluations of the Catalan regional administration dropped nine percentage points over the past twelve months, with approval reaching 49% among PSC voters, 41% among Comuns supporters, and 34% among ERC electors. Among political figures, ERC congressional spokesperson Gabriel Rufián achieves a 50% approval rating. Catalan president Salvador Illa receives 36% approval, ERC leader Oriol Junqueras registers 35%, Sílvia Orriols secures 30%, and former regional president Carles Puigdemont records 22%.