KO holds 31.5% poll lead as Braun gains and right-wing bloc fragments

Poll results and party shifts

In a survey conducted between 18 and 20 September 2026 by United Surveys by IBRiS for Wirtualna Polska, Koalicja Obywatelska (KO), led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, placed first with 31.5% of voter support. This represents a 1.3 percentage point gain compared to the previous poll conducted between 4 and 6 September 2026. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS), led by Jarosław Kaczyński, took second place with 17.2%, dropping 2.0 percentage points and trailing KO by 14.3 percentage points. Konfederacja, led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, placed third with 12.9%, falling 2.2 percentage points, the largest decline among parties reaching the parliamentary threshold.

The largest increase in the survey went to Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (KKP), led by Grzegorz Braun, which rose by 4.1 percentage points to reach 10.9%. This narrowed the margin between Braun's party and Konfederacja from over 8 percentage points down to 2.0 percentage points. Combined, Konfederacja and KKP account for 23.8% of voter declarations, exceeding the combined 22.5% share held by PiS and Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwój Plus. Support for Lewica increased by 2.2 percentage points to 8.8%, while Rozwój Plus recorded 5.3%, dropping 0.7 percentage points. Three parties fell short of the 5% parliamentary threshold: Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (PSL) gained 0.1 points to reach 3.8%, Partia Razem fell 0.8 points to 3.2%, and Polska 2050 remained unchanged at 0.5%, with 5.9% of respondents undecided.

Parliamentary seat distribution

A parliamentary seat simulation calculated by sociologist Jarosław Flis of Jagiellonian University distributed the poll results across Poland's 41 electoral districts using the D'Hondt method based on previous election voting patterns. The model provides an estimate and does not incorporate regional distribution changes that occurred after the last elections. In this 460-seat projection, KO secures 192 seats, PiS obtains 95 seats, Konfederacja wins 66 seats, and KKP claims 53 seats. Lewica receives 39 seats, while Rozwój Plus takes 15 seats.

Under these projected seat figures, KO and Lewica would together control 231 seats, forming a bare majority of one seat in the 460-seat Sejm. An alternative arithmetic combination of KO and Konfederacja would yield 258 seats, though both groups maintain conflicting policy platforms. A combined bloc of right-wing parties (PiS, Konfederacja, KKP, and Rozwój Plus) would reach 229 seats, leaving them two seats short of a majority. PiS and Konfederacja alone would hold 161 seats, rising to 214 seats if joined by KKP. Wirtualna Polska evaluated the operational fragility of the projected 231-seat alliance.

This is, however, a minimal majority: if two deputies vote differently from their club, the government loses the vote. Overriding a presidential veto would lack 45 votes.

Senate strategy and right-wing competition

The rise in KKP support coincides with separate electoral preparations within conservative factions. KKP spokesperson Roman Fritz stated that the party intends to register its own candidates across all 100 single-member Senate districts. Such an independent campaign would introduce separate right-wing candidacies across single-member constituencies, where divided support among ideologically aligned candidates increases the risk of splitting the vote. Sławomir Mentzen responded by indicating that negotiations on a conservative Senate pact would begin soon and should include Braun's party. The survey was administered to a representative sample of 1,000 adult Polish citizens using mixed CATI and CAWI interviewing techniques.