Poland's central bank holds rates, but governor flags possible January hike

Rates held, with a hike back on the table

The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, 5 November 2026, after what NBP president Adam Glapiński described as a very hot debate. He said the members' views are mixed, with doves and hawks sharing the council, and that its stance has become more hawkish than it was in October. Glapiński said the council fears rates may have to go up, but he could not say whether a rise would be a single stabilising move or the start of a tightening cycle, or whether it would happen at all. The governor placed the earliest possible move after New Year and called the January decision a big question mark. He added that he is only one of ten members who make the decision.

“We are afraid that rates will have to be raised.”

Inflation drops back into the target band

According to the GUS flash estimate that Glapiński cited, inflation fell to 3.5% year on year in October, down from 4.1% in September, which put it back inside the NBP target range. Part of the drop came from regulatory factors, namely the return of the CPN programme. Core inflation appears to have fallen as well, which the governor called unexpected, though he said it is only slightly above its level at the start of the year.

2026-094.1%

2026-103.5%

2026-09

4.1 %

2026-10

3.5 %

Data from the article text

Glapiński said fuel price increases have not yet spread into other parts of the economy. In his view, firms can pass higher costs on to prices only to a limited extent, given weaker demand and strong competition. Wage growth remains moderate, and survey data suggest wage pressure is not building in companies. He nonetheless cautioned that the period of elevated inflation is not behind us.

Commodity prices and the November decision

Glapiński tied the outlook to high commodity prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which he said push up prices across much of the world. The longer those prices stay high, the greater the risk that they pass into other goods and services. He named two areas that will shape the council's next decisions: energy commodity markets and domestic regulations affecting electricity and fuel prices. The council will assess the final effect of those national measures on inflation, which he said matters more to the central bank than their cost to the state budget. Glapiński called November the key month and said the council must avoid acting too early or too late.

“If these risks for inflation grow, the Council has authorised me to say that it is ready to act. It will not hesitate.”

Growth risks into 2027

Glapiński also flagged slower economic growth in 2027, linked to a smaller investment impulse from EU funds, including the National Recovery Plan (KPO) and the SAFE instrument. Weak economic conditions abroad, especially in the euro area and Germany, Poland's most important trading partner, add to the uncertainty. He said the council sees these risks clearly and discussed them in detail. He also noted that rates are rarely changed in December unless extraordinary circumstances arise, and that the council's decisions will depend on the government's regulations and global commodity prices.