Polish inflation falls to 3.5% in October as fuel prices drop 9.7% monthly

A sharper fall than forecast

Statistics Poland (GUS) published its flash estimate on Friday, 30 October 2026. Consumer prices were 3.5% higher than a year earlier, down from 4.1% in September and below the 3.7% that analysts polled by PAP Biznes expected. Month on month, the basket of goods and services fell 0.4%, while the market had pencilled in a 0.2% decline. A survey of economists for Rzeczpospolita and Parkiet also put the average forecast at 3.7%, with the lowest estimate at 3.6%, so the reading came in under every forecast in that group.

2026-09

4.1 %

2026-10

3.5 %

Data from the article text

Fuel drives the monthly decline

Fuel and lubricant prices for private transport fell 9.7% from September, the decisive factor in the monthly drop. They remained 21.7% above their level a year earlier, so the annual rate still carries the fuel effect. Parkiet ties the monthly decline to the return of the CPN program on 3 October and estimates that without it inflation would have been about 0.7 percentage points higher.

Food and energy

Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 0.3% month on month but stayed 0.1% cheaper than a year earlier. Parkiet describes this as the second consecutive month in which the annual food rate rose, meaning the deflation in the category became shallower. Food had been a counterweight to rising fuel costs in earlier months, and that trend is now reversing. Electricity, gas and other fuels rose 1.6% from September and 6% from a year earlier.

Fuels and lubricants for private transport21.7%

Electricity, gas and other fuels6%

Food and non-alcoholic beverages-0.1%

Fuels and lubricants for private transport

21.7 %

Electricity, gas and other fuels

6 %

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

-0.1 %

Data from the article text

Rate outlook ahead of 4 November

The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decides on interest rates on Wednesday, 4 November. Parkiet argues the lower reading could give the council a reason to avoid a rate hike at that meeting, although the broader outlook remains weak. NBP president Adam Glapiński and some council members have sounded patient, and Ludwik Kotecki, quoted in the second half of October, said:

“With our decisions we will not slow the rise in crude oil prices.”

He added that the central bank would most likely react only once second-round and indirect effects appeared and threatened core inflation. Headline inflation now sits at the edge of the NBP target band of 1.5% to 3.5%, and Parkiet notes that core inflation also surprised.

Publication timing

The full October breakdown from GUS is due in mid-November, although the sources disagree on the day. Parkiet gives 13 November, while Forsal.pl gives 14 November. The timeline below traces the CPN return, the flash release and the rate decision.